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arxiv: 2606.23103 · v1 · pith:EMUPHEJ4new · submitted 2026-06-22 · 🌌 astro-ph.EP

A decade of monitoring the HIP 41378's planetary system

S. Grouffal , A. Santerne , X. Dumusque , B. Akinsanmi , T. Guillot , N. C. Hara , A. Leleu , L. Malavolta
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M. Saillenfest D. J. Armstrong S. C. C. Barros D. Bayliss A. S. Bonomo D. J. A. Brown A. Collier Cameron M. Cretignier I. J. M. Crossfield F. Dai M. Damasso O. Demangeon P. Figueira P. Leonardi A. F. Martinez Fiorenzano M. Lopez-Morales E. Molinari A. Mortier L. D. Nielsen H. P. Osborn E. Petigura K. Rice N. C. Santos A. Sozzetti S. Sulis S. Udry C. Watson
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Pith reviewed 2026-06-26 07:42 UTC · model grok-4.3

classification 🌌 astro-ph.EP
keywords exoplanetsradial velocitiesmulti-planet systemsHIP 41378super-puff planetstransiting planetsplanetary masses
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The pith

A decade of radial velocity monitoring confirms orbital periods and masses for all five transiting planets in the HIP 41378 system while identifying a candidate sixth planet.

A machine-rendered reading of the paper's core claim, the machinery that carries it, and where it could break.

The paper reports ten years of high-precision radial velocity observations of the HIP 41378 multi-planet system using HARPS, HARPS-N, HIRES, and ESPRESSO, combined with space-based transit photometry. These data detect periodic signals for each of the five known transiting planets, thereby confirming their orbital periods and yielding mass constraints. The measurements fix the period of planet d at 278 days, refine the period of planet e to 393 days, and assign planet f a mass of 25 Earth masses that establishes its bulk density at 0.166 grams per cubic centimeter. The observations also confirm the existence of the non-transiting planet g at a 63-day period and detect a candidate long-period signal near 2602 days that may belong to planet h. The resulting architecture supplies new constraints on dynamical resonances and the internal structure of the low-density planet f.

Core claim

Through decade-long radial velocity monitoring the authors detect signals matching all five transiting planets, confirming an orbital period of 278 days for planet d, refining the period of planet e to 393 days, measuring a mass of 25 Earth masses for planet f that yields a density of 0.166 g cm^{-3}, verifying the 63-day non-transiting planet g, and identifying a candidate 2602-day signal attributed to planet h, while also examining the system's resonant structure and completeness for additional planets.

What carries the argument

The decade-long radial velocity time series extracted from multiple spectrographs, used to isolate periodic Doppler signals for each planet and to derive masses and periods.

If this is right

  • The refined periods enable a precise assessment of mean-motion resonances and long-term dynamical stability across the system.
  • The mass and density of planet f provide a direct test of interior structure models for super-puff planets.
  • Confirmation of planet g and the candidate h improve the census of planets in the system and limit the presence of additional undetected bodies.
  • The overall architecture supplies new boundary conditions on formation pathways that produce both compact inner planets and an ultra-low-density outer planet.

Where Pith is reading between the lines

These are editorial extensions of the paper, not claims the author makes directly.

  • Similar decade-scale RV campaigns on other transiting multi-planet systems could resolve whether long-period signals are planetary or activity-related.
  • The measured density of planet f invites direct comparison with atmospheric escape and inflation models over gigayear timescales.
  • Dynamical simulations tuned to the updated periods could predict transit timing variations observable with future photometry.

Load-bearing premise

The long-period radial velocity signals arise from orbiting planets rather than stellar magnetic activity cycles or residual instrumental effects.

What would settle it

Future observations showing that the 2602-day signal correlates with stellar activity indicators, or continued monitoring that fails to recover the reported periods for planets d and e, would falsify the planetary interpretation.

Figures

Figures reproduced from arXiv: 2606.23103 by A. Collier Cameron, A. F. Martinez Fiorenzano, A. Leleu, A. Mortier, A. Santerne, A. S. Bonomo, A. Sozzetti, B. Akinsanmi, C. Watson, D. Bayliss, D. J. A. Brown, D. J. Armstrong, E. Molinari, E. Petigura, F. Dai, H. P. Osborn, I. J. M. Crossfield, K. Rice, L. D. Nielsen, L. Malavolta, M. Cretignier, M. Damasso, M. Lopez-Morales, M. Saillenfest, N. C. Hara, N. C. Santos, O. Demangeon, P. Figueira, P. Leonardi, S. C. C. Barros, S. Grouffal, S. Sulis, S. Udry, T. Guillot, X. Dumusque.

Figure 1
Figure 1. Figure 1: Confirmed planetary system with more than five planets [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p003_1.png] view at source ↗
Figure 3
Figure 3. Figure 3: Tests for the orbital period of HIP 41378 d. [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p005_3.png] view at source ↗
Figure 2
Figure 2. Figure 2: GLS periodograms of HARPS, HARPS-N, HIRES, and [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p005_2.png] view at source ↗
Figure 4
Figure 4. Figure 4: Comparison of different RV models, including subsets of the HIP 41378 planets, ranked by their expected log point-wise predictive density (elpd LOO). Each model label indicates the in￾cluded planets and, for planet d, the tested orbital period in days. Higher elpd LOO values correspond to better out-of-sample pre￾dictive performance. The horizontal line segments represent the standard error of the elpd. Th… view at source ↗
Figure 5
Figure 5. Figure 5: Upper panel: ℓ1 periodogram of the RV data, including offsets in the base model. Lower panel: ℓ1 periodogram of the RV data, including offsets, transiting planets, and order 11 poly￾nomial in the base model. Planets b, c, g, and f are highlighted by their letters. 4.4. Stellar activity analysis 4.4.1. Stellar rotation period The HIP 41378 object is a relatively quiet F-type star. An analy￾sis of the K2 sho… view at source ↗
Figure 6
Figure 6. Figure 6: Comparison of the semi-amplitude of the seven planets [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p008_6.png] view at source ↗
Figure 7
Figure 7. Figure 7: RV timeseries of HIP 41378 with HARPS (pink), HARPS-N (green), HIRES (purple) and ESPRESSO (blue), along with [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p009_7.png] view at source ↗
Figure 8
Figure 8. Figure 8: Greyscale hex-bin plot representing the posterior samples [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p010_8.png] view at source ↗
Figure 10
Figure 10. Figure 10: Possible orbital periods for HIP 41378 e. The posterior [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p011_10.png] view at source ↗
Figure 9
Figure 9. Figure 9: HARPS-N, HARPS, HIRES, and ESPRESSO RV phase [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p011_9.png] view at source ↗
Figure 11
Figure 11. Figure 11: Subsequent triplet of HIP 41378 system with respect [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p012_11.png] view at source ↗
Figure 12
Figure 12. Figure 12: Mass-radius diagram for HIP 41378 transiting planets. [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p013_12.png] view at source ↗
Figure 13
Figure 13. Figure 13: Probability density of the inclination proper modes of [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p014_13.png] view at source ↗
read the original abstract

Multi-planetary systems provide key constraints on planet formation and evolution, as their architecture encodes the dynamical history of planets formed within a common protoplanetary disk. However, the current population remains strongly biased toward compact, short-period systems, and only a limited number of such systems with measured masses and radii are known. HIP 41378 is an exceptional system hosting five transiting planets with orbital periods up to 1.5 years, including an ultra-low density planet HIP 41378 f. The outer transiting planets d and e remained poorly constrained with unknown periods and masses, leaving the system architecture only partially characterised. We present long-term monitoring of this target with high-precision radial-velocity (RV) instruments (HARPS, HARPS-N, HIRES, and ESPRESSO) and space-based photometry spanning 2015-2024. We detect RV signals for all the planets, confirming their orbital periods and constraining their masses. In particular, the RV data strongly favour an orbital period of Pd = 278 days for planet d and refine the orbital period of planet e to Pe = 393+3-5 days. We measure a new mass of Mf = 25 \pm 5 earth masses for HIP 41378 f, confirming its super-puff nature with a bulk density of 0.166+0.033-0.036 g cm3. We also confirm the planetary nature of HIP 41378 g, a non-transiting planet with a 63-day period, and determine its minimum mass. In addition, the RVs reveal a long-period signal, with P = 2602+468-433 days, which we attribute to the candidate planet HIP 41378 h, although a stellar magnetic cycle cannot be excluded. Finally, we investigate the system's dynamical architecture and resonant structure, assess its completeness by constraining additional undetected planets, and discuss the implications for the origin and internal structure of the remarkable planet HIP 41378 f.

Editorial analysis

A structured set of objections, weighed in public.

Desk editor's note, referee report, simulated authors' rebuttal, and a circularity audit. Tearing a paper down is the easy half of reading it; the pith above is the substance, this is the friction.

Referee Report

1 major / 2 minor

Summary. The manuscript reports a decade (2015-2024) of high-precision RV monitoring of the HIP 41378 system with HARPS, HARPS-N, HIRES, and ESPRESSO, combined with space-based photometry. It claims detection of RV signals for all known planets, confirming Pd = 278 days for planet d, refining Pe = 393+3-5 days for planet e, measuring Mf = 25 ± 5 M⊕ for the super-puff planet f (density 0.166+0.033-0.036 g cm-3), confirming the non-transiting planet g at 63 days, and detecting a long-period signal (P = 2602+468-433 days) attributed to candidate planet h, while noting a stellar magnetic cycle cannot be excluded. The work also analyzes dynamical architecture, resonant structure, completeness, and implications for planet f.

Significance. If the RV detections and planetary interpretations hold, particularly the mass for the ultra-low-density planet f and the period constraints on the outer transiting planets, the results would provide rare mass measurements in a multi-planet system with periods up to ~1.5 years. This strengthens constraints on formation and evolution models for systems with both compact and long-period components, and the multi-instrument, decade-long baseline is a notable strength for characterizing such architectures.

major comments (1)
  1. [Abstract] Abstract (long-period signal paragraph): The attribution of the P = 2602+468-433 d signal to candidate planet h is load-bearing for the central claim of detecting RV signals 'for all the planets.' However, the ~9-year baseline covers only ~1.3 cycles, and the manuscript explicitly states a stellar magnetic cycle cannot be excluded. No details are provided on correlations with activity indicators (BIS, FWHM, log R'HK) or cross-instrument phase coherence to rule out quasi-periodic activity mimicking a Keplerian signal; this weakens the planetary interpretation relative to the stronger claims for d, e, f, and g.
minor comments (2)
  1. The abstract reports asymmetric uncertainties for some parameters (e.g., Pe, density of f) but symmetric for others (e.g., Mf); ensure consistent reporting and explicit definition of how uncertainties were derived from the posterior distributions in the methods section.
  2. Notation for planet labels (d, e, f, g, h) should be cross-checked against prior literature citations for HIP 41378 to avoid any ambiguity in the system architecture discussion.

Simulated Author's Rebuttal

1 responses · 0 unresolved

We thank the referee for their careful and constructive review of our manuscript. We address the single major comment below and agree that additional details on the long-period signal will improve the presentation.

read point-by-point responses

  1. Referee: [Abstract] Abstract (long-period signal paragraph): The attribution of the P = 2602+468-433 d signal to candidate planet h is load-bearing for the central claim of detecting RV signals 'for all the planets.' However, the ~9-year baseline covers only ~1.3 cycles, and the manuscript explicitly states a stellar magnetic cycle cannot be excluded. No details are provided on correlations with activity indicators (BIS, FWHM, log R'HK) or cross-instrument phase coherence to rule out quasi-periodic activity mimicking a Keplerian signal; this weakens the planetary interpretation relative to the stronger claims for d, e, f, and g.

    Authors: We thank the referee for this observation. The manuscript already qualifies the long-period signal as a candidate planet h and explicitly states that a stellar magnetic cycle cannot be excluded, distinguishing it from the confirmed detections of d, e, f, and g. We acknowledge that the abstract paragraph does not include the requested supporting details. In the revised manuscript we will add a concise paragraph (or subsection) summarizing our checks: (i) Pearson and Spearman correlations between the ~2600 d RV signal and the activity indicators BIS, FWHM, and log R'HK from each instrument, (ii) the absence of significant power at this period in the activity time series, and (iii) the phase coherence of the signal across the four instruments. These checks show no compelling activity correlation, although the limited number of cycles prevents a definitive exclusion. We will also note that the signal amplitude is consistent across instruments. This addition directly addresses the referee's concern without altering the cautious interpretation already presented. revision: yes

Circularity Check

0 steps flagged

No significant circularity; results from new RV data fits to standard models

full rationale

The paper reports new multi-instrument RV time series (2015-2024) and applies standard Keplerian orbit fitting to extract periods and masses for the known planets plus one candidate. All quantitative claims (Pd=278 d, Pe=393 d, Mf=25 M⊕, long-period signal at ~2602 d) are direct outputs of the data-model comparison; no parameter is fitted on a subset and then re-labeled as a prediction, no self-citation supplies a uniqueness theorem, and no ansatz is imported from prior work by the same team. The analysis is therefore self-contained against external benchmarks and receives the default non-circularity score.

Axiom & Free-Parameter Ledger

3 free parameters · 1 axioms · 0 invented entities

The central claims depend on fitting multiple Keplerian signals to RV time series, introducing several free parameters for periods, masses, and eccentricities. Attribution of signals assumes standard planetary interpretation without independent verification of activity levels.

free parameters (3)
  • Orbital period of planet d = 278 days
    Fitted from the RV time series to match the observed periodic signal
  • Orbital period of planet e = 393 days
    Refined fit from RV data with reported asymmetric uncertainty
  • Mass of planet f = 25 Earth masses
    Derived from the RV semi-amplitude in the multi-planet fit
axioms (1)
  • domain assumption Detected periodic RV variations are produced by orbiting planets rather than stellar activity or systematics
    Invoked when assigning signals to planets d, e, f, g, and candidate h

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discussion (0)

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