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The NEID Earth Twin Survey. II. Dynamical Masses in Seven High-acceleration Star Systems

T0 review · 3 major / 5 minor · reviewed 2026-08-15 · deepseek-v4-flash

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Pith's one-line read This paper reports true dynamical masses for three planets and four stars by combining 35 years of radial velocities with Hipparcos-Gaia astrometry, breaking the inclination degeneracy in Doppler-only surveys.

desk verdict Solid stellar-mass work with a valuable data release, but the three true planetary masses are overstated—HD 154345 b needs re-examination before it is quoted as a secure mass. read the letter →

arxiv 2505.12563 v1 pith:FSPCZ44V submitted 2025-05-18 astro-ph.EP astro-ph.SR

Mark R. Giovinazzi , Cullen H. Blake , Paul Robertson , Andrea S.J. Lin , Arvind F. Gupta , Suvrath Mahadevan , Rachel B. Fernandes , Jason T. Wright
show 21 more authors
Daniella Bardalez Gagliuffi Jiayin Dong Evan Fitzmaurice Samuel Halverson Shubham Kanodia Sarah E. Logsdon Jacob K. Luhn Michael W. McElwain Andy Monson Joe P. Ninan Jayadev Rajagopal Arpita Roy Christian Schwab Gudmundur Stefánsson Ryan Terrien Jason D. Eastman Jonathan Horner Peter Plavchan Sharon X. Wang Maurice L. Wilson Robert A. Wittenmyer
This is my paper · ORCID
classification astro-ph.EPastro-ph.SR
keywords dynamicalmassesbinarystarsexoplanetsradialvelocitiesastrometricaccelerationorbitfittingpropermotionanomalycoldJupiters
verification ladder T0 review T1 audit T2 compute T3 formal

The pith

A machine-rendered reading of the paper's core claim, the machinery that carries it, and where it could break.

The reading

Radial-velocity surveys measure only a planet's minimum mass, because the orbit's tilt is unknown. This paper argues that the gap can be closed by adding a second, independent measurement: the tiny change in a star's sky motion between the Hipparcos and Gaia epochs, which records the star's acceleration toward its companion over roughly 25 years. Applying this to seven nearby accelerated systems, the paper reports true dynamical masses for three planets — HD 217107 c ($4.37$ Jupiter masses), HD 190360 b ($1.68$), and HD 154345 b ($1.186$) — and stellar masses with sub-percent precision for several binary components, together with improved or first orbital solutions. These results matter because model-independent masses anchor stellar evolution and photometric mass calibration, and because the planets' true masses and ephemerides make them concrete targets for direct imaging.

What carries the argument

The load-bearing observable is the proper-motion anomaly: the difference between the star's proper motion measured at the Hipparcos epoch and at the Gaia epoch, quantified by the paper's $\chi^2_{\rm HG}$ statistic. This difference is a direct measurement of the star's plane-of-sky acceleration over roughly 25 years. When combined with the line-of-sight acceleration from radial velocities and the distance from the Gaia parallax, the resulting three-dimensional acceleration, together with Kepler's laws, fixes the companion mass without knowing the orbit's inclination. For the four binaries, relative astrometry spanning up to about 200 years additionally traces the orbital arc directly. The fits use a parallel-tempered Markov chain Monte Carlo orbit code that simultaneously models absolute astrometry, radial velocities, and relative astrometry, with Gaussian stellar-mass priors applied only where the data cannot supply the mass alone (HD 24496 AB and the three planet hosts).

What would settle it

Re-derive the HD 154345 acceleration using the epoch astrometry in Gaia DR4 rather than the two-epoch proper-motion difference; if the resulting acceleration is consistent with zero or notably smaller than the $\chi^2_{\rm HG}$-selected value, the reported $1.186\,M_{\rm Jup}$ dynamical mass is inflated by the selection cut. The same check on HD 217107 and HD 190360 would reveal whether the bias affects all three planet masses.

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Extended reading notes

Core claim

By jointly fitting radial velocities spanning more than 35 years with the proper-motion difference between Hipparcos (epoch 1991.25) and Gaia (epoch 2016.0), plus century-long relative astrometry for the resolved binaries, the paper determines the full three-dimensional acceleration of each host star. For the three planetary systems this disentangles mass from inclination for the first time: HD 217107 c has a true mass of $4.37^{+0.13}_{-0.10}\,M_{\rm Jup}$ with an orbit close to edge-on ($i = 88^{+14}_{-12}$ degrees); HD 190360 b has $1.68^{+0.26}_{-0.16}\,M_{\rm Jup}$ with a bimodal inclination near 60 or 120 degrees; HD 154345 b has $1.186^{+0.095}_{-0.059}\,M_{\rm Jup}$ at $i = 88\pm20$ degrees. For the four binaries, the fit yields masses with relative uncertainties of about 1% or better for HD 68017 B ($0.1548\pm0.0014\,M_\odot$), 61 Cygni A ($0.6772^{+0.0051}_{-0.0051}\,M_\odot$), HD 4614 A ($1.0258^{+0.0070}_{-0.0069}\,M_\odot$) and HD 4614 B ($0.5487\pm0.0056\,M_\odot$); it also produces the first orbital solution for the 600-year binary HD 24496 AB. The paper states these solutions agree with previous estimates while improving their precision.

Load-bearing premise

Every reported mass assumes the measured kink in the star's sky motion between the Hipparcos and Gaia epochs comes entirely from the modeled companion's orbit, and that choosing stars because that kink was unusually large did not inflate the measured accelerations.

Editorial extensions

If this is right

  • The three cold Jupiters now have unambiguous masses and ephemerides, so their predicted 2025–2035 angular separations and contrasts can be used to decide whether existing space coronagraphs can image them.
  • The roughly 1% stellar masses provide model-independent anchor points for testing stellar evolutionary tracks and calibrating photometric mass–luminosity relations.
  • The first orbital solution for HD 24496 AB demonstrates that a moderate set of high-precision radial velocities plus astrometry can pin down a 600-year orbit, extending the method to very long-period binaries.
  • The more than 35-year radial-velocity baselines assembled here open the search for ultra-long-period and low-amplitude companions; the residual periodicity at 2.4 years around HD 4614 (a possible $22\,M_\oplus$ planet) and at 90 days around HD 190360 (a possible $10\,M_\oplus$ planet) are flagged for follow-up.
  • Future Gaia epoch astrometry should tighten every mass reported here and can extend the same technique to the remaining accelerating targets in the parent survey.

Reading between the lines

Editorial extensions of the paper, not claims the author makes directly.

  • Because the seven systems were selected on $\chi^2_{\rm HG}>11.8$, the measured accelerations for the weakest detections are likely overestimated; a selection-bias correction or a re-fit of stars with $\chi^2_{\rm HG}$ between 6 and 11.8 would indicate how much the reported masses, especially that of HD 154345 b, should be discounted.
  • The two unclassified residual signals — the 2.4-year period around HD 4614 and the 90-day signal around HD 190360 — would, if confirmed as Keplerians, show that this joint-fitting approach can uncover low-mass companions that pure Doppler searches would struggle to validate; the paper's own checks leave both as open questions.
  • The method's lever arm is the roughly 25-year Hipparcos–Gaia baseline, so systems with periods much longer than that, like HD 24496 AB, still need stellar-mass priors; applying the same fit after Gaia epoch astrometry becomes available should remove those priors and test whether the 600-year orbit solution is biased by them.
  • For HD 68017, the unresolved photocentric motion in both catalogs could bias the primary's proper motion; if a future Gaia release resolves the pair, the secondary mass of $0.1548\,M_\odot$ can be checked against an independent orbit.
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Editorial analysis

A structured set of objections, weighed in public.

Desk editor's note, referee report, and a circularity audit.

Referee Report

3 major / 5 minor

Summary. This paper presents joint orbit fits for seven nearby star systems drawn from the NEID Earth Twin Survey that show significant Hipparcos-Gaia proper-motion anomalies. For four binary systems (HD 68017 AB, 61 Cygni AB, HD 24496 AB, HD 4614 AB) the authors combine up to ~200 years of relative astrometry, absolute astrometry from the HGCA, and RVs including newly published NEID and MINERVA measurements. For three planetary systems (HD 217107, HD 190360, HD 154345) they combine RVs with the Hipparcos-Gaia acceleration to constrain companion inclinations and report true masses. The paper claims four stellar masses with ≲1% relative precision, true masses for three planets whose masses were previously entangled with inclination, an improved orbit for HD 24496 AB (the first published for that system), and refined ephemerides for all seven systems. The modeling is carried out with orvara, using Gaussian mass priors for the planet hosts and for HD 24496 A, while the other three binary systems are fit without mass priors.

Significance. If the results hold, this is a valuable contribution to the small set of benchmark stellar and planetary masses. The sub-percent dynamical masses for 61 Cygni A, HD 4614 A/B, and HD 68017 B, the first orbital solution for HD 24496 AB, the public release of over 900 new RVs, and the careful treatment of 19th-century relative astrometry are concrete strengths. The comparisons with photometric mass relations and with independent model masses are useful, and the residual periodogram searches add value beyond the headline masses. However, the central claim of 'true masses for three planets' is currently too strong: the HD 154345 b solution appears internally inconsistent with the RV minimum mass, HD 190360 b retains a broad/bimodal inclination, and all three planetary targets sit close to the χ²HG selection threshold where acceleration measurements can be biased. The paper is likely correct in its broad conclusions, but the planetary mass claims need targeted verification and re-scoping before they can be accepted as stated.

major comments (3)
  1. [Section 5.7 / Table 7 / Section 3.7] The reported posterior for HD 154345 b is internally inconsistent with the RV minimum mass quoted earlier in the paper. Table 7 lists Msec = 1.186+0.095−0.059 MJ with i = 88±20°, which implies m sin i ≈ 1.18 MJ; Section 3.7 quotes the RV-only minimum mass as 0.905+0.071−0.089 MJ from Rosenthal et al. (2021), whose HIRES data are included in the joint fit. Since the joint posterior must satisfy the RV likelihood, the fitted Keplerian semi-amplitude would need to be about 30% larger than the well-established value, which is implausible unless the new NEID/MINERVA data drastically alter the RV solution. The paper does not report the joint m sin i posterior or the best-fit K, so this consistency check is absent. Because HD 154345 b is one of the three headline 'true mass' results, the authors should verify the MCMC solution, report the implied K, and reconcile these numbers.
  2. [Section 2.1 / Table 1 / Section 5.7] The sample is selected on χ²HG > 11.8, and HD 154345 sits just above this threshold with χ²HG = 12.8. For a significance-based cut, the measured proper-motion anomaly of a marginal source is an upward-biased estimate of the true acceleration, and no truncation correction or injection-recovery test is presented. Because the astrometric acceleration is the only datum that breaks the m sin i degeneracy for HD 154345 b, this bias propagates directly into the inferred companion mass. The direction and approximate magnitude of the bias are consistent with the discrepancy raised in the previous comment. I request a quantitative test, such as injecting synthetic accelerations at the χ²HG threshold and fitting the same model, or a re-analysis with a selection-aware prior, before the true mass is claimed for this planet.
  3. [Section 5.6 / Table 7 / Figure A6] The claim of a 'true mass' for HD 190360 b is not supported by the reported posterior. The inclination is given as i = 69+42−17°, and the text states that the distribution is bimodal with modes near 60° and 120°, so the m sin i degeneracy remains essentially unbroken. The quoted Msec = 1.68+0.26−0.16 MJ is therefore strongly prior-driven rather than a direct dynamical measurement. The abstract's statement of 'true masses for three planets' overstates the result for this system. I recommend either restricting the 'true mass' claim to the cases where the inclination is actually constrained, or demonstrating explicitly that the mass posterior is insensitive to the inclination prior.
minor comments (5)
  1. [Abstract / Section 2.3.9 / Section 2.3.10] The abstract states 'over 1100 previously unpublished measurements,' but the totals given in the text sum to 960 (543 MINERVA RVs in Section 2.3.9 plus 417 NEID RVs in Section 2.3.10). Please reconcile the count.
  2. [Section 3.6] The text 'HD 190630 is in a wide (178″) orbit' appears to be a typo for HD 190360 B; the following sentence correctly refers to HD 190360 B.
  3. [Section 5.5 / Figure 5] The bottom panel of Figure 5 labels the system as 'HD 217017'; this should be HD 217107.
  4. [Section 5.2] The reported primary mass 'MA = 0.6772± +0.0051' contains a stray plus sign and should read 'MA = 0.6772+0.0051−0.0051' or use the symmetric notation.
  5. [Section 7.5] The phrase 'one of the longest-period super-Earths (m<20 M⊕)' should be formatted as 'M < 20 M⊕' to avoid confusion between mass and the planet designation.

Circularity Check

0 steps flagged · score 1.0 of 10

No significant circularity: the dynamical masses are outputs of a joint fit to external Hipparcos/Gaia absolute astrometry, decades of radial velocities, and (for binaries) relative astrometry; the planetary host-star priors come from independent spectral fitting.

full rationale

The central derivation is self-contained. For three of the four binaries (HD 68017, 61 Cygni, HD 4614), the paper fits RVs, Hipparcos-Gaia proper-motion anomalies, and relative astrometry while giving the primary mass only a hard uniform prior, so the reported stellar masses are dynamical outputs rather than inputs. For HD 24496 and the three planetary systems, Gaussian primary-mass priors from Hirsch et al. (2021) are explicitly disclosed in Table 5 as independent SpecMatch-syn spectral estimates; the companion masses and inclinations are then determined by the joint likelihood, so no fitted parameter is silently renamed as a prediction. External benchmarks (Brandt et al. 2019; Rosenthal et al. 2021; Feng et al. 2021; Xiao et al. 2023; Izmailov et al. 2021; Soubiran et al. 2024) are used for comparison, and no load-bearing claim rests solely on a self-citation. The self-citations that appear (Giovinazzi & Blake 2022 for a photometric relation, Giovinazzi et al. 2020 for a precession estimate, binary_mc for a companion-period sanity check, and Stefansson et al. 2025 for the general astrometry-plus-RV method) are ancillary and do not enter the mass derivations. The sample-selection concern about the chi2_HG>11.8 threshold and the apparent m sin i tension for HD 154345 are correctness or bias concerns about the astrometric measurement, not circularity: the reported masses are not equal to the inputs by construction. The low score reflects only incidental self-citations that are not load-bearing.

Assumptions & free parameters 6 free parameters · 5 assumptions · 0 invented entities

The analysis introduces no new physical particles or forces. It depends on standard Keplerian physics, on the adopted stellar mass priors for four systems, on the single-companion attribution of the measured acceleration, and on the error-inflation factors. The sample selection on χ2HG introduces a potential bias that is not modeled.

free parameters (6)
  • Stellar mass priors for HD 24496 A, HD 217107, HD 190360, HD 154345 = 0.93±0.05, 1.06±0.04, 0.99±0.04, 0.89±0.04 Msun
    Adopted from Hirsch et al. (2021) spectral fitting; used because these systems lack enough relative astrometry to determine the primary mass dynamically. The companion masses depend on these priors through the RV-to-mass conversion.
  • Parallax error inflation factor = 1.28
    Adopted from El-Badry et al. (2021) to account for underestimated Gaia uncertainties; rescales the parallax priors used in the fits.
  • Proper motion error inflation factor = 1.37
    Adopted from Brandt (2021); applied to Gaia proper motions of resolved companions to account for underestimated uncertainties.
  • Instrumental RV jitter terms = e.g., 0.26-15.6 m/s depending on instrument
    Fitted nuisance parameters for each RV dataset to absorb stellar and instrumental noise.
  • RV zero-point offsets = per instrument, fitted
    Fitted offsets to reconcile RV datasets from different instruments.
  • Relative astrometry data cleaning thresholds = post-1950 programs with >35 obs; pre-1950 with ≥6 obs; 3-sigma clipping
    Hand-defined criteria in Section 2.2.1 used to prune WDS measurements for 61 Cygni and HD 4614; can affect the fitted orbits and masses.
assumptions (5)
  • standard math Keplerian two-body orbital mechanics
    Used throughout for orbit fitting; orvara assumes point-mass Keplerian orbits.
  • domain assumption The acceleration of the primary star is entirely due to the modeled companion(s)
    Section 2.1 and Section 5; no unresolved or distant companions are invoked except for HD 190360 B which is argued negligible in Section 3.6; for HD 68017 the unresolved secondary blends the astrometry (Section 5.1).
  • domain assumption Gaia and Hipparcos astrometric uncertainties, after inflation factors, are reliable
    Section 4 adopts inflation factors 1.28 (parallax) and 1.37 (proper motion) based on previous calibrations; the masses rely on these error bars.
  • domain assumption Relative astrometry can be treated as being in the ICRS frame with negligible plate-scale or precession corrections
    Section 2.2.2 assumes residual frame rotations around 0.1 degrees are negligible, except for Pulkovo position angles which are un-rotated.
  • domain assumption RV datasets from different instruments can be reconciled by independent offsets and jitter
    Section 2.3 and Section 4 assign each instrument its own zero-point and jitter, which is standard practice but assumes no time-correlated systematics.

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Cite this review

Pith. "Pith review of The NEID Earth Twin Survey. II. Dynamical Masses in Seven High-acceleration Star Systems." pith.science (2026). https://pith.science/paper/FSPCZ44V

@misc{pith2026250512563,
  author       = {Pith},
  title        = {Pith review of: The NEID Earth Twin Survey. II. Dynamical Masses in Seven High-acceleration Star Systems},
  year         = {2026},
  howpublished = {\url{https://pith.science/paper/FSPCZ44V}},
  note         = {Machine review of arXiv:2505.12563}
}
abstract

We present a set of companion dynamical masses and orbital parameters of seven star systems from the NEID Earth Twin Survey with significant absolute astrometric accelerations between the epochs of Hipparcos and Gaia. These include four binary star systems (HD 68017 AB, 61 Cygni AB, HD 24496 AB, and HD 4614 AB) and three planetary systems (HD 217107, HD 190360, and HD 154345). Our analyses incorporate a long baseline of RVs that includes over 1100 previously unpublished measurements from NEID and MINERVA, extending the overall RV baseline for each system by $\approx$2.5 years, as well as relative astrometry for the stellar binary systems where the positions of both stars are well-measured. In each case, the combination of astrometry and RVs constrains the three-dimensional acceleration of the host star and enables precise dynamical masses. We publish true masses for three planets whose measurements were previously entangled with their inclinations, four stellar masses with $\lesssim$1% relative precision, and improved orbital solutions for all seven systems, including the first for HD 24496 AB. These solutions not only agree with previous estimates, but also improve their fidelity. We also explore each system for evidence of periodic signals in the residuals around our best-fit models, and discuss the potential that the three planetary systems have for being directly imaged. With dynamical mass estimates and reliable orbit ephemerides, these seven star systems represent promising benchmarks for future stellar and planetary characterization efforts, and are amenable for further improvement with the upcoming release of Gaia epoch astrometry.

Figures

Figures reproduced from arXiv: 2505.12563 by the authors.

Figure 1
Figure 1. The full sample of NETS stars, ranked by their astrometric acceleration parameter, χ 2 HG. Stars plotted with red bars are known to have at least one planetary or stellar companion, while those plotted with blue bars are not known to have any bound companions. The horizontal dashed line indicates our cut for keeping only stars with χ 2 HG > 11.8. The only NETS target not shown here is HD 179957, which is not catalog… view at source ↗
Figure 2
Figure 2. Bar chart of all RVs used for the seven accelerating stars considered in our analysis. Temporal overlap of RV datasets from different instruments helps to constrain instrumental offsets and improves the accuracy of orbital fits by providing a more continuous coverage across the total observation baseline [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p010_2.png] view at source ↗
Figure 3
Figure 3. Scatter of all sources in Gaia with apparent mag￾nitude G < 7. Here, we show that sources with G ≲ 4 are far less frequently observed to have RUWE < 1.4, a strong indicator that the RUWE values of these bright sources may be artificially inflated. HD 4614 A is observed by Gaia to have RUWE = 3.121, with its stellar companion, HD 4614 B, having a RUWE near unity (RUWE = 1.039). The photocenters of bright sources, how… view at source ↗
Figures from the paper (15 more)
Figure 4
Figure 4. Figure 4: Grid of the seven systems included in our analyses. Each system is centered relative to the position of the primary star at t = 2016.0 and is viewed with an equal aspect ratio. Primary stars are denoted by yellow stars, bound stellar companions by yellow circles, and t…
Figure 5
Figure 5. Figure 5: Top: resulting arguments of periastra of HD 217107 b from MCMC fits using subsets of the RVs from our analysis. The rightmost bin of observations consist solely of those taken from NEID. Both high-cadence observations at lesser precision and fewer RVs at higher precisi…
Figure 6
Figure 6. Figure 6: Best-fit RV models for the four binary star systems presented in this analysis. The RVs shown here are those collected for the accelerating star in each system (top left: HD 68017 A; top right: 61 Cygni B; bottom left: HD 24496 A; bottom right: HD 4614 A). The error ba…
Figure 7
Figure 7. Figure 7: Best-fit RV models for the three planetary systems presented in this analysis (top left: HD 217107; top right: HD 190360; bottom middle: HD 154345). Each panel also includes phase-folded RV curves for planets. Both two-planet systems (HD 217107 and HD 190360) show plan…
Figure 8
Figure 8. Figure 8: Observed proper motion values for the accelerating stars in our four binary systems: HD 68017 A, 61 Cygni B, HD 24496 A, and HD 4614 A. In each panel, the left plot shows the proper motion in right ascension as measured by Hipparcos (left point at t ≈ 1991.25) and Gaia…
Figure 9
Figure 9. Figure 9: Observed proper motion values for the accelerating stars in our three planetary systems: HD 217107, HD 190360, and HD 154345. Each panel shows the proper motion values as measured by Hipparcos and Gaia, as well as colored trial orbits that correspond to companion mass,…
Figure 10
Figure 10. Figure 10: Projected relative orbits for the four binary star systems considered here (top left: HD 68017 B around HD 68017 A; top right: 61 Cygni A around 61 Cygni B; bottom left: HD 24496 B around HD 24496 A; bottom right: HD 4614 B around HD 4614 A). The filled blue points re…
Figure 11
Figure 11. Figure 11: Comparison of our dynamical stellar mass esti￾mates with recent photometric mass relationships. The HD 68017 AB pair is unresolved in both 2MASS and Gaia and therefore has no reported Ks or GRP magnitudes. However, Crepp et al. (2012) used NIRC2 to resolve the two sta…
Figure 12
Figure 12. Figure 12: Best-fit relative separation models for the three giant outer planets presented in this analysis. HD 68017A FAP = 0.1% 61 Cygni B FAP = 0.1% HD 24496 A FAP = 0.1% HD 4614 A FAP = 0.1% HD 217107 FAP = 0.1% HD 190360 FAP = 0.1% 10 0 10 1 10 2 10 3 10 4 Periods [d] HD 15…
Figure 14
Figure 14. Figure 14: Phase-folded RV curve for 61 Cygni B. The best-fit period from our periodogram is fit for and shown in blue. NEID RVs, which are our analysis’ most precise, are highlighted in red, while the remaining data are shown in light black. We bin all data by phase in incremen…
Figure 13
Figure 13. Figure 13: Panel of periodograms of RV residuals for all accelerating stars from this analysis. Dashed, vertical red lines are denoted for every system’s highest-signal periodic￾ity, and false alarm probabilities at a level of 0.1% are given for each case. The period range searc…
Figure 17
Figure 17. Figure 17: Same as [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p027_17.png]
Figure 18
Figure 18. Figure 18: Same as [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p027_18.png]
Figure 19
Figure 19. Figure 19: Same as [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p028_19.png]
Figure 20
Figure 20. Figure 20: Same as [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p028_20.png]

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