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KOBE-1: The first planetary system from the KOBE survey. Two planets likely residing in the sub-Neptune mass regime around a late K-dwarf

T0 review · 0 major / 7 minor · reviewed 2026-08-09 · deepseek-v4-flash

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Pith's one-line read The KOBE survey's first discovery is a K7 dwarf hosting two sub-Neptune-minimum-mass planets at periods of 8.54 and 29.67 days, confirmed by CARMENES radial velocities.

desk verdict Solid two-planet RV detection from a new survey; the lunar-contamination worry is convincingly put to bed. read the letter →

arxiv 2502.01249 v2 pith:G2VIBQEI submitted 2025-02-03 astro-ph.EP

O. Balsalobre-Ruza , J. Lillo-Box , A. M. Silva , S. Grouffal , J. Aceituno , A. Castro-González , C. Cifuentes , M. R. Standing
show 30 more authors
J. P. Faria P. Figueira A. Santerne E. Marfil A. Abreu A. Aguichine L. González-Ramírez J. C. Morales N. Santos N. Huélamo E. Delgado Mena D. Barrado V. Adibekyan S. C. C. Barros Á. Berihuete M. Morales-Calderón E. Nagel E. Solano S. G. Sousa J. F. Agüí Fernández M. Azzaro G. Bergond S. Cikota A. Fernández-Martín J. Flores S. Góngora A. Guijarro I. Hermelo V. Pinter J. I. Vico-Linares
This is my paper · ORCID
classification astro-ph.EP
keywords exoplanetsradialvelocityK-dwarfstarssub-NeptunesKOBEsurveyCARMENESBayesianmodelcomparisonhabitablezone
verification ladder T0 review T1 audit T2 compute T3 formal

The pith

A machine-rendered reading of the paper's core claim, the machinery that carries it, and where it could break.

The reading

This paper reports the first planetary system discovered by the KOBE blind radial-velocity survey: a late K-dwarf (KOBE-1, HIP 5957) hosting two planets with minimum masses of 8.80 and 12.4 Earth masses at periods of 8.54 and 29.67 days. The authors aim to establish that both signals are genuine planets, not stellar activity, instrumental systematics, or lunar contamination, by combining 82 CARMENES spectra over three years with Bayesian model comparison and activity-indicator checks. The result matters because K-dwarfs are prime targets for habitable-zone searches, and this system provides a concrete example of the compact, sub-Neptune-mass population such surveys can uncover. It also demonstrates a path to future atmospheric characterization: the paper argues the proposed LIFE nulling interferometer could detect both planets directly.

What carries the argument

The central machinery is a radial-velocity model with two circular Keplerians plus a quadratic long-term trend, whose parameters are sampled with diffusive nested sampling and with an MCMC ensemble sampler, with model comparison done through Bayesian log-evidence (Bayes factors). Around this core sit the S-BART template-matching RV extraction with nightly zero-point corrections, GLS periodograms to find candidate periods, activity indicators (bisector span, FWHM, differential line width, H-alpha and calcium indices) to reject stellar-activity origins, a Gaussian-process test using the CaIRT2 index as an activity proxy, and a Moon-contamination screening that removes and re-analyses potentially contaminated epochs. The same machinery is reused to compute detection limits in the habitable zone by injecting single Keplerians into the residuals and taking the 99% upper limits, which rules out planets above about 8.5 M_Earth in the conservative HZ.

What would settle it

Continue monitoring KOBE-1 with CARMENES for two more seasons and recompute the 29.671-day signal after excluding every night with Moon illumination above 40% and angular separation below 80 degrees; if the signal's phase and amplitude do not remain coherent with the published ephemeris, or if a comparable 29.53-day signal appears in the RVs of other KOBE targets observed the same nights, the planetary interpretation for the outer signal is wrong.

Watch

Extended reading notes

Core claim

KOBE-1 is a relatively quiet K7V star at 23.9 pc that hosts two planets in the sub-Neptune minimum-mass regime. Planet b orbits with period 8.5399 days and semi-amplitude 3.75 m/s, giving m_b sin i_b = 8.80 ± 0.76 M_Earth; planet c orbits with period 29.671 days, semi-amplitude 3.50 m/s, giving m_c sin i_c = 12.4 ± 1.1 M_Earth. The two-circular-Keplerian model is strongly preferred over zero- and one-planet models (ΔlnZ = 9.7 and 7.9), the amplitudes are consistent across four observing seasons, and no activity indicator correlates with the RVs. Under the Exoplanet Confirmation Protocol scheme, the authors classify both as confirmed planets: the probability that either companion exceeds the 13 M_Jup planetary-mass limit is below 0.3%. The 29.7-day signal sits close to the lunar synodic month, but the paper excludes nine Moon-contaminated epochs and shows the signal persists, with a theoretical Moon-induced RV upper limit of about 0.3 m/s, eleven times weaker than the detected signal. A single TESS transit-like dimming in sector 17 is compatible within 1σ with a transit of planet c, but the paper does not claim it as a transit.

Load-bearing premise

The 29.7-day radial-velocity signal is a genuine Keplerian orbit rather than a lunar-synodic-month systematic, even though 29.7 days nearly equals the Moon's 29.53-day synodic period.

Editorial extensions

If this is right

  • KOBE-1 b and c are confirmed planets with minimum masses of 8.80 ± 0.76 and 12.4 ± 1.1 Earth masses, orbiting at 8.54 and 29.67 days around a K7 dwarf.
  • The KOBE survey's observing strategy works: a blind CARMENES campaign with ~24 points per season can uncover multi-planet systems around late K-dwarfs.
  • No planets with minimum masses above about 8.5 Earth masses remain in the habitable zone of KOBE-1, so the system's HZ is empty at the current sensitivity.
  • The single TESS dimming, if it is a transit of planet c, would imply a radius of 1.69 ± 0.12 R_Earth and a dense super-Earth composition, but the data do not yet justify that claim.
  • The proposed LIFE nulling interferometer could detect both planets directly with integration times of about one hour (planet b) and four hours (planet c) in the baseline super-Earth scenario.

Reading between the lines

Editorial extensions of the paper, not claims the author makes directly.

  • If the TESS dimming is later confirmed as a transit of KOBE-1 c, the planet would be a dense super-Earth at low irradiation, a combination that would be difficult to explain by photoevaporation and would test interior-structure models.
  • The near-coincidence between the 29.671-day period and the lunar synodic month suggests that other RV surveys should routinely apply the same Moon-contamination screening; a 29.5-day signal in a single target should be checked against other stars observed the same nights.
  • The KOBE-1 system, with two similar-amplitude planets and a quiet host, is a good benchmark for testing dynamical packing and formation scenarios of sub-Neptunes around low-mass stars.
  • If future seasons push the evidence for a third signal near 18.7 days (half the stellar rotation period), it would indicate that activity harmonics can lurk just below detection thresholds even in quiet K-dwarfs, strengthening the case for GP modeling in such surveys.
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Editorial analysis

A structured set of objections, weighed in public.

Desk editor's note, referee report, and a circularity audit.

Referee Report

0 major / 7 minor

Summary. KOBE-1 (HIP 5957) is a K7V dwarf monitored by CARMENES as part of the KOBE survey. Using 82 S-BART radial velocities over 1180 days, the paper reports two periodic signals at P_b = 8.5399 d with K_b = 3.75 ± 0.48 m/s and P_c = 29.671 d with K_c = 3.50 ± 0.45 m/s. The authors model the data with two circular Keplerians plus a quadratic trend and show that Bayesian evidence strongly favors this model over zero- and one-planet alternatives. The signals are stable across four observing seasons, are uncorrelated with activity indicators, and survive the exclusion of potentially Moon-contaminated epochs. The inferred minimum masses are 8.80 ± 0.76 M⊕ and 12.4 ± 1.1 M⊕, placing the companions in the planetary-mass regime with high probability. A single transit-like feature in TESS is analyzed but not claimed as a transit, and injection-recovery is used to set sensitivity limits inside the habitable zone. The paper closes with LIFE simulation-based predictions for future direct-imaging characterization.

Significance. This is a solid, carefully analyzed RV discovery and the first planetary system from the KOBE survey. Its main strength is cross-validation: the signals appear in independent extractions (S-BART, serval, SHAQ), in two Bayesian frameworks (kima and radvel with bayev), in seasonal amplitude checks, and in activity diagnostics including a Gaussian-process treatment. The authors are appropriately cautious about the ambiguous TESS feature and about the lunar alias, and the injection-recovery sensitivity analysis is reproducible with public tools. The system is scientifically valuable as a relatively quiet late-K dwarf hosting two sub-Neptune-minimum-mass planets, and the LIFE integration-time estimates are falsifiable predictions for future missions. I find no load-bearing technical error in the detection claim, and the presentation is generally transparent and conservative.

minor comments (7)
  1. [5.1] The formal classification of the two signals as "confirmed planets" relies on the Exoplanet Confirmation Protocol of Lillo-Box et al. (in prep.), which is not publicly available; please cite a public version or state the adopted criteria explicitly so that the classification is independently checkable.
  2. [Abstract and 5.3] The abstract states that planets above 8.5 M⊕ are discarded within the habitable zone, whereas Section 5.3 reports sensitivity of about 8.5 M⊕ at 90-105 d for the conservative HZ and about 7.6 M⊕ at about 80 d for the optimistic HZ; this wording should be rephrased to avoid implying a uniform mass limit across the full HZ.
  3. [Appendix B] The lunar-contamination discussion is convincing, but a periodogram or RMS of the nightly zero-point time series itself would close the residual channel of a Moon-induced systematic in the NZPs; the current survey-wide control is reassuring yet indirect.
  4. [4.1.2] There is a typo: "both √e cosω and √e cosω" should read "both √e cosω and √e sinω."
  5. [2.1 and Introduction] Minor typographical errors should be corrected: "signal to noise natio" (Section 2.1), "photomery" (Introduction), and "for for their whole domain" (Section 4.1.2).
  6. [Fig. 1] The evidence comparison in Figure 1 is difficult to parse because multiple ΔlnZ values are plotted without a clear statement of the reference model in the caption; please make the reference model and the sign convention explicit.
  7. [Title and 5.2] The title's "sub-Neptune mass regime" is stronger than Section 5.2's conclusion that the minimum masses are compatible with either the super-Earth or sub-Neptune populations; consider a wording such as "super-Earth/sub-Neptune mass regime."

Circularity Check

0 steps flagged · score 0.0 of 10

No circularity found: the planetary parameters are outputs of the RV fit, not inputs, and every ancillary claim is either independently checked or explicitly scenario-dependent.

full rationale

The central claim that KOBE-1 hosts two planets with P=8.54 d and P=29.67 d and minimum masses 8.80±0.76 M⊕ and 12.4±1.1 M⊕ is a direct fit to 82 CARMENES RVs; the periods, semi-amplitudes, and masses are posterior outputs, never assumed inputs. The two-planet model is preferred over lower-complexity models by ΔlnZ ≈ 7.9–10.9 computed with two independent samplers (kima and radvel/bayev), and the same periodicities are recovered from independent pipelines (serval and SHAQ, Appendix A). The non-planetary alternatives are excluded with in-paper evidence: activity indicators show no correlation (Pearson/Spearman |R|<0.25), the GP activity amplitude collapses to zero, and the 37.4 d rotation period and its harmonic are not present at the planetary periods. The 29.7 d signal's proximity to the lunar synodic month is explicitly handled in Appendix B: nine potentially contaminated epochs are removed, the contaminated subset shows no 29.7 d peak, other KOBE targets show no such periodicity, and the Cunha et al. (2013) upper limit of 0.3 m/s is eleven times smaller than Kc. Sensitivity limits are derived by injection-recovery into residuals verified to contain no remaining signals, so they are measured quantities, not circular predictions. The single TESS dimming is explicitly treated as uncertain and the joint MCMC does not prefer the transiting hypothesis (Appendix C); it is not used as a load-bearing confirmation. LIFE integration times are explicitly scenario-dependent, assuming model radii for super-Earth and mini-Neptune cases, so they are illustrative prospects, not fitted predictions. Self-citations (SHAQ, S-BART, KOBE survey, ECP in prep.) are methodological or terminological; the ECP's three generic principles are restated and each is evaluated with quantitative evidence inside this paper, so the self-citation is not load-bearing. No equation in the chain is equivalent to its own input by construction; the paper is a self-contained data-driven detection.

Assumptions & free parameters 3 free parameters · 4 assumptions · 0 invented entities

The central claim rests on standard Keplerian fitting with two nuisance parameters (trend and jitter) plus empirical stellar parameters. No new physical entities are introduced. The main assumptions are the usual ones for RV planet confirmation: that the signals are planetary rather than activity/systematic, and that the stellar parameters are accurate.

free parameters (3)
  • RV jitter (sigma_jit) = 2.17 +0.34 -0.32 m/s
    Added in quadrature to account for stellar/instrumental noise beyond quoted errors. It is fitted in both the kima and radvel models and affects the posterior widths of the planetary parameters.
  • Quadratic trend slope m = -7.2e-3 ± 3.2e-3 m/s/d
    Long-term acceleration term in the RV model. It is a free parameter fitted to the data and could absorb low-frequency signals, though the two short-period signals are robust to its inclusion.
  • Quadratic trend coefficient q = -7.6e-6 ± 2.6e-6 m/s/d^2
    Curvature term of the long-term trend. Fitted alongside m to describe the observed RV drift over the 1180-day baseline.
assumptions (4)
  • domain assumption The two RV signals are Keplerian and not due to stellar activity or instrumental systematics.
    The paper tests activity indicators, GP models, and Moon contamination to support this, but it cannot be proven absolutely. This is the core assumption for any RV planet detection.
  • domain assumption The stellar mass and radius derived from empirical relations (Schweitzer 2019) and SED fitting are correct.
    Planet minimum masses scale as M_star^(2/3) times K and P. The paper adopts M_star = 0.629 ± 0.017 Msun and R_star = 0.619 ± 0.011 Rsun; errors in these propagate to the derived planetary masses.
  • domain assumption KOBE-1 is single and the signals are not caused by a blended binary.
    Checked via Gaia RUWE, CCF shape, and lack of BIS/FWHM correlations, but unresolved companions cannot be fully excluded. A blended binary could mimic a planet signal.
  • domain assumption The CARMENES nightly zero-point corrections (S-BART NZPs) are accurate.
    The final RV time series depends on NZP subtraction. The paper shows S-BART NZPs are more precise than serval or SHAQ, but it assumes they are also accurate.

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Cite this review

Pith. "Pith review of KOBE-1: The first planetary system from the KOBE survey. Two planets likely residing in the sub-Neptune mass regime around a late K-dwarf." pith.science (2026). https://pith.science/paper/G2VIBQEI

@misc{pith2026250201249,
  author       = {Pith},
  title        = {Pith review of: KOBE-1: The first planetary system from the KOBE survey. Two planets likely residing in the sub-Neptune mass regime around a late K-dwarf},
  year         = {2026},
  howpublished = {\url{https://pith.science/paper/G2VIBQEI}},
  note         = {Machine review of arXiv:2502.01249}
}
read the original abstract

K-dwarf stars are promising targets in the exploration of potentially habitable planets. Their properties, falling between G and M dwarfs, provide an optimal trade-off between the prospect of habitability and ease of detection. The KOBE experiment is a blind-search survey exploiting this niche, monitoring the radial velocity of 50 late-type K-dwarf stars. It employs the CARMENES spectrograph, with an observational strategy designed to detect planets in the habitable zone of their system. In this work, we exploit the KOBE data set to characterize planetary signals in the K7V star HIP 5957 (KOBE-1) and to constrain the planetary population within its habitable zone. We used 82 CARMENES spectra over a time span of three years. We employed a GLS periodogram to search for significant periodic signals that would be compatible with Keplerian motion on KOBE-1. We carried out a model comparison within a Bayesian framework to ensure the significance of the planetary model over alternative configurations of lower complexity. We also inspected two available TESS sectors in search of planetary signals. We identified two signals: at 8.5d and 29.7d. We confirmed their planetary nature through ruling out other non-planetary configurations. Their minimum masses are 8.80+/-0.76ME and 12.4+/-1.1ME, corresponding to absolute masses within the planetary regime at a high certainty (>99.7%). By analyzing the sensitivity of the CARMENES time series to additional signals, we discarded planets above 8.5ME within the habitable zone. We identified a single transit-like feature in TESS, whose origin is still uncertain, but still compatible within 1sigma with a transit from planet c. We have explored future prospects for characterizing this system, concluding that nulling interferometry with the LIFE mission could be capable of directly imaging both planets and characterizing their atmospheres in future studies.

Figures

Figures reproduced from arXiv: 2502.01249 by the authors.

Figure 1
Figure 1. Comparison of the logarithm of the Bayesian evidence (ln Z) for the tested RV models. The evidence difference (∆ ln Z) with the best model, or Bayes Factor (BF), is shown at the top of the bar for each model. In grey are displayed different ∆ ln Z from the 2p1c2c model marking the strong evidence against competing models. region of the parameter space around the maximum a posteriori solution from the first phase (as… view at source ↗
Figure 2
Figure 2. S-BART RV time series (top panel, purple dots) and phase-folded for both planets separately (blue dots in middle-left panel for KOBE-1 b, and green dots in the middle-right panel for KOBE-1 c). The quadratic trend, and the model of the other planet when plotted in phase (middle panels), are subtracted from the RVs. The best model is shown as a solid line, with shaded background regions representing 1- and 2σ confide… view at source ↗
Figure 3
Figure 3. TESS light curves of the first half of sector 17 (before the down-link gap) for KOBE-1. The shaded regions represent the 68.7% (light) and 95% (dark) confidence intervals for the conjunction time of KOBE-1 b (blue) and KOBE-1 c (green) according to the RV analysis in Sect. 4.1. The vertical dotted lines correspond to the median of the expected transit time for each planet, while the vertical dashed red line indicate… view at source ↗
Figures from the paper (2 more)
Figure 4
Figure 4. Figure 4: Evolution of the difference between the evidence of the two￾planet model and the zero-planet model as a function of the number of data points (dark blue solid line and symbols, corresponding to the lower X-axis) and against the time from the first observation (light bl…
Figure 7
Figure 7. Figure 7: Hexbin plot showing the posterior samples obtained from kima runs on the KOBE-1 RV data with Np fixed to 1. The blue line shows the 99% detection limit line, whereas the red line shows the same line computed on a subset of posterior samples with eccentricity < 0.1. The…

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Pith tools

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