Complexity of Vector-valued Prediction: From Linear Models to Stochastic Convex Optimization

We study the problem of learning vector-valued linear predictors: these are prediction rules parameterized by a matrix that maps an $m$-dimensional feature vector to a $k$-dimensional target. We focus on the fundamental case with a convex and Lipschitz loss function, and show several new theoretical results that shed light on the complexity of this problem and its connection to related learning models. First, we give a tight characterization of the sample complexity of Empirical Risk Minimization (ERM) in this setting, establishing that $\smash{\widetilde{\Omega}}(k/\epsilon^2)$ examples are necessary for ERM to reach $\epsilon$ excess (population) risk; this provides for an exponential improvement over recent results by Magen and Shamir (2023) in terms of the dependence on the target dimension $k$, and matches a classical upper bound due to Maurer (2016). Second, we present a black-box conversion from general $d$-dimensional Stochastic Convex Optimization (SCO) to vector-valued linear prediction, showing that any SCO problem can be embedded as a prediction problem with $k=\Theta(d)$ outputs. These results portray the setting of vector-valued linear prediction as bridging between two extensively studied yet disparate learning models: linear models (corresponds to $k=1$) and general $d$-dimensional SCO (with $k=\Theta(d)$).