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REVIEW 4 major objections 6 minor 56 references

On the Existence of Simpler Machine Learning Models

T0 review · 4 major / 6 minor · reviewed 2026-08-14 · deepseek-v4-flash

Pith's one-line read This paper argues that simple, accurate models are likely to exist whenever the Rashomon set—the set of almost-equally-accurate models—is large, and introduces the Rashomon ratio and curve to detect this before searching.

desk verdict New framing for why simple models exist, with honest conditional theory; the empirical estimator is too fragile to support the headline quantitative claims, but the paper deserves a serious referee. read the letter →

arxiv 1908.01755 v4 pith:HDFNW3WL submitted 2019-08-05 cs.LG stat.ML

classification cs.LGstat.ML
keywords Rashomonsetratiomodelmultiplicitysimplicitygeneralizationboundsinterpretablemachinelearningselectiondecisiontrees
verification ladder T0 review T1 audit T2 compute T3 formal

The pith

A machine-rendered reading of the paper's core claim, the machinery that carries it, and where it could break.

The reading

The paper sets out to show that simple, accurate models are not a lucky accident: they are to be expected whenever the Rashomon set—the set of models whose training loss is within a small tolerance $\theta$ of the best model in a class—is large. As its central tool it defines the Rashomon ratio, the volume fraction of the hypothesis space occupied by the Rashomon set, and argues that a large ratio acts as a certificate that simpler models with comparable accuracy and good generalization exist before anyone searches for them. The main theorems show this under two conditions: the loss is $K$-Lipschitz and the simpler class $\mathcal{F}_1$ forms a $\delta$-cover of the complex class $\mathcal{F}_2$'s Rashomon set; then many $\mathcal{F}_1$ models lie inside the set and all of them inherit a generalization bound that uses only $\mathcal{F}_1$'s complexity. Empirically, over 38 classification and 14 regression data sets, plotting empirical risk against the log Rashomon ratio across a hierarchy of decision-tree depths gives a recurring $\Gamma$-shaped Rashomon curve whose elbow is a reliable model-selection point. If the paper is right, a practitioner can tell cheaply—by seeing whether several standard algorithms perform similarly—that a search for interpretable models is likely to pay off.

What carries the argument

The Rashomon set and its normalized version, the Rashomon ratio, are the load-bearing objects. The Rashomon set is $\hat{R}_{\mathrm{set}}(\mathcal{F},\theta)=\{f\in\mathcal{F}: \hat{L}(f)\le \hat{L}(\hat{f})+\theta\}$—the models within $\theta$ of the best training loss—and the ratio is $V(\hat{R}_{\mathrm{set}}(\mathcal{F},\theta))/V(\mathcal{F})$, the fraction of the hypothesis space that is almost-optimal. The argument runs on two levers: approximation and smoothness. If the simple class $\mathcal{F}_1$ $\delta$-covers the Rashomon set of $\mathcal{F}_2$ and the loss is $K$-Lipschitz, then each packing ball in the Rashomon set contains an $\mathcal{F}_1$ model, which is what yields the existence and generalization statements of Theorems 9 and 10. To make the ratio measurable, the paper supplies a closed-form ellipsoid volume for ridge regression, a pattern-based ratio that groups models by prediction vectors and converges to a binomial-entropy limit as the model class grows, and importance-sampling estimators for tree classes; the empirical Rashomon curve then connects empirical risk to log Rashomon ratio along a hierarchy and locates the Rashomon elbow.

What would settle it

Recompute the Rashomon ratios for the same 38 data sets using a different proposal distribution (for example, random leaf labels as well as random splits, or trees of depth 9 instead of 7) and check whether the ordering of data sets by ratio—and especially the large-versus-small boundary near $10^{-37}\%$—survives; if the ordering flips for even a handful of data sets, the empirical link between large ratios and similar cross-algorithm performance is an artifact of the estimator rather than a property of the data.

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Extended reading notes

Core claim

The paper's central claim is that the size of the Rashomon set is a data-dependent gauge of how easy it is to find simple, accurate models. Formally, for finite hypothesis spaces $\mathcal{F}_1\subset\mathcal{F}_2$, if the true Rashomon set of $\mathcal{F}_2$ at tolerance $\gamma$ contains even one model from $\mathcal{F}_1$, then the best empirical model in $\mathcal{F}_1$ has training risk within $\gamma$ plus a small sample term of the best true risk in $\mathcal{F}_2$ (Theorem 3); if $\mathcal{F}_1$ is sampled randomly from $\mathcal{F}_2$, a sufficiently large true Rashomon ratio makes this event likely (Theorems 4 and 6). For the empirical Rashomon set, Theorem 9 proves that when the loss is $K$-Lipschitz and every model in $\hat{R}_{\mathrm{set}}(\mathcal{F}_2,\theta)$ is within $\delta$ of some $\mathcal{F}_1$ model, then at least $\mathcal{B}(\hat{R}_{\mathrm{set}}(\mathcal{F}_2,\theta),2\delta)$ models from $\mathcal{F}_1$ lie in the Rashomon set and each has $|L(\bar{f}_1)-\hat{L}(\bar{f}_1)|\le 2K R_n(\mathcal{F}_1)+ b\sqrt{\log(2/\varepsilon)/(2n)}$. Theorem 10 extends the same reasoning to bound generalization for every model in $\mathcal{F}_2$'s Rashomon set using only the complexity of $\mathcal{F}_1$, meaning a large Rashomon set with a good simple approximating class makes the whole problem simpler than a naive analysis suggests. The paper also derives a closed-form Rashomon volume for ridge regression, an entropy-bounded pattern Rashomon ratio for classification, and the empirical Rashomon curve.

Load-bearing premise

The empirical claim that large Rashomon sets are common rests on treating depth-seven decision trees as a stand-in for the true union of the five algorithms' hypothesis spaces and on an importance-sampling estimate whose proposal weights set the scale for what counts as large; if either is unrepresentative, the observed ordering of large versus small ratios could change.

Editorial extensions

If this is right

  • A practitioner who sees several standard algorithms agree in training and test accuracy can treat that agreement as an indirect signal of a large Rashomon set, making it worth searching for interpretable or sparse models before assuming they do not exist.
  • Under $K$-Lipschitz loss and a $\delta$-covering simple class, a large empirical Rashomon set guarantees not just one but many simple-yet-accurate models, each with a generalization bound that uses only the simple class's Rademacher complexity.
  • The Rashomon elbow, chosen from training data alone, balances empirical risk against Rashomon ratio and, in the 52 data sets studied, generalized as well as or better than the other hypothesis spaces in the hierarchy.
  • Because the Rashomon ratio depends on both the data set and the hypothesis space and tracks multiplicity of models, it captures aspects of simplicity that VC dimension, stability, margins, and Rademacher complexity leave out.
  • In ridge regression, the Rashomon volume can be written in closed form as an ellipsoid whose size depends on the feature matrix's singular values but not on the target values, so the simplicity gauge can be computed exactly for this class.

Reading between the lines

Editorial extensions of the paper, not claims the author makes directly.

  • A direct test of the paper's practical thesis would be to run a large library of data sets through two cheap probes—cross-algorithm accuracy agreement and average pairwise prediction disagreement—and compare those probes with a directly estimated Rashomon ratio; if the correlation is strong, the ratio itself becomes unnecessary for routine model selection.
  • Because the absolute magnitudes of the reported Rashomon ratios are set by the importance-sampling proposal (per-tree weights around $3\times10^{-39}$), the robust content is the ordering of data sets and the within-hierarchy shape of the Rashomon curve; cross-paper comparisons of raw ratio values will require a normalized estimator.
  • The $\Gamma$-shape suggests a decision rule for benchmark progress: problems for which all modern algorithms saturate in accuracy sit on the vertical part of the curve, where effort should go into finding simpler models inside the Rashomon set, while problems where accuracy still climbs with model complexity sit on the horizontal part, where more complex classes still have room.
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Editorial analysis

A structured set of objections, weighed in public.

Desk editor's note, referee report, and a circularity audit.

Referee Report

4 major / 6 minor

Summary. The paper introduces the Rashomon set and Rashomon ratio as data-dependent measures of model multiplicity, and argues that a large Rashomon set for a complex hypothesis space can certify the existence of simpler, accurate models that generalize. The theoretical part defines the empirical and true Rashomon sets, proves generalization and existence results for simpler classes (Theorems 3, 4, 6, 9, 10), gives a closed-form Rashomon volume for ridge regression (Theorem 11), and introduces the pattern Rashomon ratio (Definition 12, Proposition 13). The experimental part estimates Rashomon ratios for depth-seven decision trees on 38 UCI classification datasets, reports that large estimated ratios correlate with similar performance across five algorithms, observes a universal Gamma-shaped Rashomon curve over tree-depth hierarchies, and proposes the Rashomon elbow as a model-selection criterion.

Significance. If the empirical claims hold, the paper provides a genuinely new, data-dependent perspective on model simplicity and multiplicity, distinct from VC dimension, stability, margins, and Rademacher complexity. The closed-form ridge-regression volume and the approximating-set generalization bounds are coherent and useful contributions, and the Rashomon curve is a falsifiable empirical prediction. The significance is currently conditional, however, because the headline empirical conclusions rest on an unvalidated surrogate hypothesis space and on an importance-sampling estimator whose absolute scale and large/small dichotomy are not shown to be robust. The paper is transparent about several of these limitations, which is a strength, but the experiments as presented do not yet support the strength of the practical conclusions drawn in Sections 6, 8, and 9.

major comments (4)
  1. [Section 5.3, Supplementary Information H] The importance-sampling estimator is the sole basis for the Rashomon-ratio values used in Section 6 and Figure 5, yet the paper reports no confidence intervals, effective sample sizes, or proposal-sensitivity results. As the authors state in Supplementary H, every sampled depth-seven tree carries the same importance weight 2^{-128} ≈ 3×10^{-39}, so the reported ratios are rescaled acceptance rates; a different proposal distribution would change the estimated size. The paper therefore does not establish that the dichotomy between 'large' ratios (around 10^{-37}%) and 'small' ratios (below 10^{-40}%) is robust, and this dichotomy drives the central empirical correlation claim. Please report effective sample sizes and confidence intervals, and verify that the large/small ordering and the Section 6 correlations are stable under alternative proposal distributions.
  2. [Section 6] The surrogate choice of depth-seven decision trees for F2, described as the union of the hypothesis spaces of logistic regression, CART, random forests, gradient boosted trees, and SVMs, is not validated. The theorems used to interpret the experiments, particularly Theorems 9 and 10, require that a simpler class F1 delta-covers the empirical Rashomon set of F2; nothing in Section 6 checks this cover condition or checks that depth-seven trees attain training risk within theta=0.05 of the union space's best model. The paper acknowledges that the surrogate is an empirical observation about 38 tabular datasets, but the headline conclusion—that similar performance across algorithms signals a large Rashomon set—concerns the union space, not depth-seven trees. Please provide at least a partial validation of the surrogate on several datasets, for example by comparing the training risk of depth-seven trees with the best algorithm in F2 and by checking whether simpler classes satisfy the delta-cover condition on the measured empirical Rashomon set.
  3. [Sections 4.1 and 6] The theoretical results that motivate the experiments, Theorems 3, 4, and 6, concern the true population Rashomon set, whereas the experiments estimate an empirical Rashomon ratio for a surrogate class. Propositions 7 and 8 only connect true and empirical anchored Rashomon sets for a fixed model, not for the full Rashomon set or for the ratios plotted in Figure 5. Thus the inference from 'the estimated empirical Rashomon ratio is large' to 'the conditions of Theorem 3 hold' is not justified by the stated results. The paper says it is using the empirical ratio as a surrogate for the true ratio, but no high-probability bound relating the two quantities for the function classes used is provided. Please either derive such a bound, or explicitly reframe the experimental conclusions as statements about the empirical Rashomon set of the surrogate class rather than about the true Rashomon set of F2.
  4. [Section 8.2, Definition 16, Figure 9] The paper states that the Rashomon elbow 'either helps, or has no effect, but never achieves worse performance than other possible choices,' but the supporting evidence is visual and based on selected examples. No numerical comparison is reported across the 38 datasets, and the elbow is not compared with standard model-selection baselines such as validation-error minimization. Because the abstract and Section 9 present the elbow as a reliable model-selection criterion, please provide quantitative results, such as mean and median test error, win/tie/loss counts against alternatives, and an explicit statement of how many datasets fall into each of the three categories in Figure 9.
minor comments (6)
  1. [Section 4.1.1, Theorem 4] The expression for p uses binomial coefficients with (1 - Rratio(F2, gamma))|F2|, which is not an integer in general; please clarify that the formula should be read with rounding or state that Rratio is assumed to make the relevant quantities integers.
  2. [Section 4.1, Theorem 3 proof] The proof refers to f*_1 as an optimal function in F1, but this symbol is not defined in the theorem statement; please define it explicitly.
  3. [Section 4.2, Theorem 9] The theorem statement says the constructed functions lie in \hat Rset(F, \theta) without specifying F; from the context this should be \hat Rset(F2, \theta), and item 1 should clarify that they are in F1. Please fix the notation.
  4. [Section 8.1] The text says all Rashomon curves for all 38 datasets follow the same trend, but then notes that some curves exhibit only the vertical or only the horizontal part; please consistently state that the observed curves are full or partial Gamma-shaped trends.
  5. [Section 5.2] The text refers to 'the pattern Rashomon ratio defined in (12)', but Definition 12 is not numbered as an equation; please refer to Definition 12 instead.
  6. [Section 4.1] There is a typo, 'Occham’s razor', which should be 'Occam’s razor'.

Circularity Check

0 steps flagged · score 0.0 of 10

No significant circularity: the Rashomon ratio is a new definition, the formal results are conditional theorems proved from explicit assumptions, and the empirical correlations are presented as empirical observations rather than derived from the definitions.

full rationale

The paper's central formal results are conditional theorems, not circular re-statements. Definitions 1 and 2 define the Rashomon set and ratio as volume fractions of models within a threshold of the empirical risk minimizer; Theorems 3-10 prove generalization and existence-of-simpler-model results under explicit assumptions (e.g., a member of F1 lies in the true Rashomon set, F1 is a delta-cover of the Rashomon set of F2, the loss is K-Lipschitz and bounded). The conclusions are not assumed in the inputs: for instance, Theorem 9's conclusion that at least B(Rset(F2,theta),2delta) simpler models generalize follows from the cover assumption plus standard Rademacher bounds, and the cover condition is stated as a hypothesis rather than inferred from the definition of the Rashomon ratio. The empirical section explicitly acknowledges that depth-seven decision trees are a 'surrogate' for the union space F2 and that the suitability of this surrogate 'is an empirical observation'; similarly, the sensitivity of the estimated ratios to the importance-sampling proposal is disclosed in Supplementary H. These are estimation and approximation limitations, not definitional equivalences. Self-citations to Fisher, Rudin, and Dominici (2019) and to Tulabandhula and Rudin are contextual background; the one borrowed intuition (Proposition 8) is independently proved via Hoeffding in Supplementary D.5, so the self-citation is not load-bearing. There are some proof-presentation gaps (e.g., Theorem 22 is stated without a full theorem statement, and Theorem 9's proof does not fully spell out the Lipschitz-based membership check), but these are correctness risks, not circularity. No step in the paper reduces a claimed prediction to an input by construction.

Assumptions & free parameters 3 free parameters · 7 assumptions · 2 invented entities

The central claim that large Rashomon sets imply existence of simple models rests on several stated assumptions: bounded Lipschitz loss, a delta-cover condition between function classes, and an unverifiable true-Rashomon-set membership in Theorem 3. The empirical claims additionally depend on the choice of theta, the ridge regularization constant, the number of principal components, and the adequacy of depth-seven decision trees as a surrogate hypothesis space. These are all explicit in the paper, but several are chosen by hand rather than derived.

free parameters (3)
  • theta (Rashomon parameter) = 0.05 for classification, 0.1 * Lhat(f_t) for regression
    Defines the near-optimal threshold for membership in the Rashomon set; chosen by hand, though the paper reports results are not sensitive to it.
  • C (ridge regularization) = 0.01
    Regularization constant used in the ridge regression Rashomon volume experiments; selected by hand without a tuning procedure described.
  • Number of principal components = 3
    Regression experiments reduce each dataset to the first three principal components before building the polynomial hierarchy; this choice affects the computed Rashomon volumes.
assumptions (7)
  • domain assumption Loss is bounded in [0,b] and data are drawn i.i.d. from an unknown distribution
    Used in all Hoeffding-based bounds, including Theorems 3, 4, 6, and Propositions 7 and 8.
  • domain assumption Loss is K-Lipschitz with respect to the function norm
    Required by Theorems 9, 10, and 22 to translate function-space closeness into loss closeness.
  • domain assumption The simpler class F1 is a delta-cover of the Rashomon set of F2
    Central premise for Theorems 9 and 10 guaranteeing existence of simple models inside the Rashomon set.
  • domain assumption The true Rashomon set of F2 contains at least one function from F1
    Unverifiable population assumption behind Theorem 3 and its corollaries; the paper explicitly notes it cannot be checked in practice.
  • ad hoc to paper Depth-seven decision trees serve as a surrogate for the union hypothesis space of the five algorithms
    The empirical identification of large Rashomon sets depends on this; the paper acknowledges it is an empirical observation about the datasets considered.
  • domain assumption For the pattern Rashomon ratio limit, the hypothesis space becomes flexible enough to realize every label pattern
    Needed for Proposition 13 to derive the binary entropy bound on the limiting pattern ratio.
  • domain assumption The feature Gram matrix is positive definite, obtained via PCA in ridge experiments
    Used in Section 5.1 to avoid zero singular values and infinite Rashomon volume when C=0.
invented entities (2)
  • Rashomon ratio
    purpose: Quantify the fraction of near-optimal models in a hypothesis space as a gauge of simplicity
    A definitional quantity introduced by the paper; its usefulness is supported by experiments in the same paper, but no external calibration or falsifiable prediction outside this work is provided.
  • Rashomon curve and Rashomon elbow
    purpose: Describe the tradeoff between training risk and Rashomon ratio across a hierarchy of model classes, and select a model complexity
    An empirical regularity reported on 52 UCI datasets within the paper; future datasets could test it, but no external replication or out-of-paper validation is included.

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Pith. "Pith review of On the Existence of Simpler Machine Learning Models." pith.science (2026). https://pith.science/paper/HDFNW3WL

@misc{pith2026190801755,
  author       = {Pith},
  title        = {Pith review of: On the Existence of Simpler Machine Learning Models},
  year         = {2026},
  howpublished = {\url{https://pith.science/paper/HDFNW3WL}},
  note         = {Machine review of arXiv:1908.01755}
}
read the original abstract

It is almost always easier to find an accurate-but-complex model than an accurate-yet-simple model. Finding optimal, sparse, accurate models of various forms (linear models with integer coefficients, decision sets, rule lists, decision trees) is generally NP-hard. We often do not know whether the search for a simpler model will be worthwhile, and thus we do not go to the trouble of searching for one. In this work, we ask an important practical question: can accurate-yet-simple models be proven to exist, or shown likely to exist, before explicitly searching for them? We hypothesize that there is an important reason that simple-yet-accurate models often do exist. This hypothesis is that the size of the Rashomon set is often large, where the Rashomon set is the set of almost-equally-accurate models from a function class. If the Rashomon set is large, it contains numerous accurate models, and perhaps at least one of them is the simple model we desire. In this work, we formally present the Rashomon ratio as a new gauge of simplicity for a learning problem, depending on a function class and a data set. The Rashomon ratio is the ratio of the volume of the set of accurate models to the volume of the hypothesis space, and it is different from standard complexity measures from statistical learning theory. Insight from studying the Rashomon ratio provides an easy way to check whether a simpler model might exist for a problem before finding it, namely whether several different machine learning methods achieve similar performance on the data. In that sense, the Rashomon ratio is a powerful tool for understanding why and when an accurate-yet-simple model might exist. If, as we hypothesize in this work, many real-world data sets admit large Rashomon sets, the implications are vast: it means that simple or interpretable models may often be used for high-stakes decisions without losing accuracy.

Figures

Figures reproduced from arXiv: 1908.01755 by the authors.

Figure 1
Figure 1. An illustration of a possible Rashomon set in two dimensional hypothesis space F. Models below the red plane belong to the Rashomon set Rˆ set(F,θ), where the height of the red plane is adjusted by the Rashomon parameter θ defined in Section 3. can be NP hard, sometimes with no polynomial time approximation. Let us thus return to the possibility of aiming to prove that desirable (“simpler”) models exist within the R… view at source ↗
Figure 2
Figure 2. (a) For F1 ⊂ F2, the empirical risk of F1 is bounded by the true risk of F2 and γ if there exists a model ˜f1 in the intersection of F1 and the Rashomon set of F2 as shown in Theorem 3. (b) F1 is formed by random sampling of F2. If we sample sufficiently many models from F2 to be included in F1, with high probability there will be a model from F1 that will be within the Rashomon set of F2. The main assumption in The… view at source ↗
Figure 3
Figure 3. (a)-(b) An illustration that shows why both approximation and smoothness assumptions in Theorem 9 are important. If the approximation assumption does not hold, F1 can be concentrated in F2 and thus does not necessarily intersect with the Rashomon set of F2 (a). If the smoothness assumption does not hold, F1 is discontinuous and thus does not necessarily intersect with the Rashomon set of F2 even though F1 is dense i… view at source ↗
Figures from the paper (8 more)
Figure 4
Figure 4. Figure 4: (a) Classifiers in the figure each define a different loss pattern. The number of distinct patterns (in Figure (a) there are six patterns) created by functions in the Rashomon set comprises the numerator of the pattern Rashomon ratio. (b) Each classifier in the figure …
Figure 5
Figure 5. Figure 5: (a) Examples of experiments on four data sets showing that larger Rashomon ratios lead to similar performance of five machine learning algorithms with regularization. All the algorithms generalize well and have similar test accuracy. (b)-(c): Examples showing that smal…
Figure 6
Figure 6. Figure 6: (a) An illustration of a function class that contains functions of different complexity, arising from the search spaces of different algorithms. (b) An illustration of a convex Rashomon set. Because the Rashomon set is convex, all functions in the convex hull of Halg m…
Figure 7
Figure 7. Figure 7 [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p021_7.png]
Figure 8
Figure 8. Figure 8: (a) and (c): Illustrations of the Rashomon curve’s general shape. For a hierarchy of hypothesis spaces, each space is represented with a colored dot, where different colors corresponds to different hypothesis spaces. As the size of the hypothesis spaces grow, first the…
Figure 9
Figure 9. Figure 9: (a): An illustration of the Rashomon elbow and its generalization. For a hierarchy of hypothesis spaces, each hypothesis space is represented with a colored dot. The Rashomon elbow is shown with a blue arrow. Arrows point from the training empirical risk for each hypot…
Figure 10
Figure 10. Figure 10: The generalization ability of the Rashomon elbow for the UCI regression data sets with real features. We consider 3 features for every data set with the largest corresponding singular values. The hierarchy of hypothesis spaces consists of polynomials of degree (PD) fr…
Figure 11
Figure 11. Figure 11: A possible perspective on modern machine learning and Rashomon curves: at a given point in time, the state-of-the-art for different data sets, data types, and algorithmic performance may be viewed as a location on that problem’s Rashomon curve. The maximal accuracy fo…

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Pith tools

Reviewed August 14, 2026 · model on record in the stance chip above.