Computational error estimates for Born-Oppenheimer molecular dynamics with nearly crossing potential surfaces

The difference of the values of observables for the time-independent Schroedinger equation, with matrix valued potentials, and the values of observables for ab initio Born-Oppenheimer molecular dynamics, of the ground state, depends on the probability to be in excited states and the electron/nuclei mass ratio. The paper first proves an error estimate (depending on the electron/nuclei mass ratio and the probability to be in excited states) for this difference of microcanonical observables, assuming that molecular dynamics space-time averages converge, with a rate related to the maximal Lyapunov exponent. The error estimate is uniform in the number of particles and the analysis does not assume a uniform lower bound on the spectral gap of the electron operator and consequently the probability to be in excited states can be large. A numerical method to determine the probability to be in excited states is then presented, based on Ehrenfest molecular dynamics and stability analysis of a perturbed eigenvalue problem.