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Probability of symptoms and critical disease after SARS-CoV-2 infection

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arxiv 2006.08471 v2 pith:J66OMXY6 submitted 2020-06-15 q-bio.PE

Probability of symptoms and critical disease after SARS-CoV-2 infection

Piero Poletti , Marcello Tirani , Danilo Cereda , Filippo Trentini , Giorgio Guzzetta , Giuliana Sabatino , Valentina Marziano , Ambra Castrofino
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Francesca Grosso Gabriele Del Castillo Raffaella Piccarreta ATS Lombardy COVID-19 Task Force Aida Andreassi Alessia Melegaro Maria Gramegna Marco Ajelli Stefano Merler
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keywords symptomscriticaldiseasesars-cov-2subjectsinfectedpositiveprobability
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We quantified the probability of developing symptoms (respiratory or fever \geq 37.5 {\deg}C) and critical disease (requiring intensive care or resulting in death) of SARS-CoV-2 positive subjects. 5,484 contacts of SARS-CoV-2 index cases detected in Lombardy, Italy were analyzed, and positive subjects were ascertained via nasal swabs and serological assays. 73.9% of all infected individuals aged less than 60 years did not develop symptoms (95% confidence interval: 71.8-75.9%). The risk of symptoms increased with age. 6.6% of infected subjects older than 60 years had critical disease, with males at significantly higher risk.

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