Bayesian Spectral Emotion Transition Discovery from Multi-Annotator Disagreement

Emotions evolve through the dynamics of conversation, and understanding their transition structure is foundational to applications ranging from mental-health screening to dialogue systems. However, existing studies typically compress multi-rater judgments into a single hard label by majority voting, discarding the uncertainty signal needed to understand turn-to-turn transitions. In this article, we propose Bayesian Spectral Emotion Transition Discovery (BSETD), a two-stage framework that discovers emotion-transition structure from multi-rater soft labels. In the first stage, a hierarchical Dirichlet-Multinomial posterior is constructed through the outer product of soft labels, equipping each cell of the K x K transition matrix with a credible interval and Benjamini-Hochberg (BH) false discovery rate (FDR)-controlled significance. In the second stage, the symmetrized graph Laplacian is spectrally decomposed to separate a low-frequency (inertia) component from a high-frequency (contagion) component. On EmotionLines, BSETD simultaneously recovers the signatures of two distinct affective spaces: the Plutchik-adjacent transitions disgust to anger (log2 lift +0.94) and anger to disgust (+0.86) are over-represented, while the Russell-valence-reversed transitions joy to anger (-0.90) and anger to joy (-0.89) are under-represented. A five-source cross-corpus validation yields pairwise Pearson correlations in 0.91-0.98 within English, 0.79-0.85 against Chinese M3ED, and 0.979 between the human hard labels and the LLM virtual soft labels on the same utterance set, demonstrating that a pipeline preserving annotator uncertainty bridges the computational study of emotion dynamics with established psychological theory.