The Empirically Grounded Adaptive Virtual Patient for Psychotherapy Training: Disclosure That Responds to Therapist Micro-Skills

Simulated patients offer a scalable way to train psychotherapy micro-skills such as empathic responding and exploratory probing, but current systems either follow fixed scripts or rely on LLMs that drift unpredictably over long sessions. We present the Adaptive Virtual Patient (AVP), which adapts its disclosure behavior -- from guarded, through moderate openness, to full disclosure -- in response to trainee skill. The AVP is grounded in a structural equation model fit to nearly 2{,}000 hours of real-world psychotherapy transcripts, which quantifies how therapist empathy and exploration shift a patient's openness over time. An LLM generates the AVP's utterances conditioned on a disclosure level that the dynamics module updates each turn. In an evaluation with 20 clinicians and trainees over 80 sessions (1{,}033 turns), the AVP's disclosure rises in response to therapist empathy and exploration, while a prompt-only baseline stays flat; ablations confirm that the empirically motivated parameterization outperforms alternatives, with exploration carrying most of the adaptive signal.