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arxiv: 1604.00033 · v1 · pith:MYIOVVSRnew · submitted 2016-03-31 · 💻 cs.CY · cs.SI

EMBERS at 4 years: Experiences operating an Open Source Indicators Forecasting System

Sathappan Muthiah , Patrick Butler , Rupinder Paul Khandpur , Parang Saraf , Nathan Self , Alla Rozovskaya , Liang Zhao , Jose Cadena
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Chang-Tien Lu Anil Vullikanti Achla Marathe Kristen Summers Graham Katz Andy Doyle Jaime Arredondo Dipak K. Gupta David Mares Naren Ramakrishnan
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classification 💻 cs.CY cs.SI
keywords embersforecastingsystemeventsexperiencesincludingoperatingyears
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EMBERS is an anticipatory intelligence system forecasting population-level events in multiple countries of Latin America. A deployed system from 2012, EMBERS has been generating alerts 24x7 by ingesting a broad range of data sources including news, blogs, tweets, machine coded events, currency rates, and food prices. In this paper, we describe our experiences operating EMBERS continuously for nearly 4 years, with specific attention to the discoveries it has enabled, correct as well as missed forecasts, and lessons learnt from participating in a forecasting tournament including our perspectives on the limits of forecasting and ethical considerations.

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