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REVIEW 4 major objections 6 minor 1 cited by

Performative Thinking? The Brittle Correlation Between CoT Length and Problem Complexity

T0 review · 4 major / 6 minor · reviewed 2026-08-04 · deepseek-v4-flash

Pith's one-line read In a transformer trained from scratch on A* search traces, chain-of-thought length tracks training-data familiarity rather than problem difficulty, so long traces should not be read as thinking effort.

desk verdict A controlled small-scale negative result on CoT length vs. A* complexity, directionally plausible but under-quantified and over-extrapolated to R1. read the letter →

arxiv 2509.07339 v1 pith:N5Q5IOPQ submitted 2025-09-09 cs.AI

classification cs.AI
keywords chain-of-thoughtintermediatetokengenerationA*traceimitationproblemcomplexitydistributionalshiftreasoningmodelspathfindingtest-timescaling
verification ladder T0 review T1 audit T2 compute T3 formal

The pith

A machine-rendered reading of the paper's core claim, the machinery that carries it, and where it could break.

The reading

The paper asks whether the number of intermediate tokens a model emits before its answer tracks how hard the problem actually is, or how familiar the problem looks. To get a verifiable answer, the authors train a 380M-parameter transformer from scratch to imitate the step-by-step traces of A* search on 30×30 maze problems, where A*'s operation count is an exact ground-truth measure of complexity. They find that on trivial no-obstacle grids the model often runs to the 32k context limit without solving anything, and across maze generators with different structure the generated trace length and A* trace length correlate only loosely. The only cases with visible correlation are held-out problems drawn from the same generator as training, which the authors read as approximate recall rather than adaptive computation. The paper's conclusion is that for such models, longer traces should not be treated as evidence of more "thinking," and it extends this caution to large reasoning models whose long chains are popularly anthropomorphized.

What carries the argument

The key machinery is the derivational trace of A* search, linearized into tokens of the form 'create x y cG cH' and 'close x y cG cH' for each node creation and expansion. Because A*'s number of operations equals the length of this trace, the trace gives a precise, verifiable measure of problem complexity. Training a from-scratch transformer to imitate these traces creates a controlled setting in which the model's own generated trace length can be compared against the ground-truth complexity of each maze. The design also varies the maze-generation algorithm, producing training and test distributions with different structural distance, which lets the authors separate complexity effects from d

What would settle it

Take the same maze setup and train an identically sized transformer with reinforcement learning that rewards only the final plan's correctness, with no trace supervision, then measure the trace-length versus A*-operation-count correlation on out-of-distribution maze generators. A strong, monotone correlation across all generators would refute the claim that distributional distance, not complexity, controls trace length; a flat correlation would confirm it.

Watch

Extended reading notes

Core claim

The central claim is that intermediate token length in a transformer trained on derivational traces is not a reliable index of problem-adaptive computation. Using A* on grid mazes as a controlled setting, the authors define problem complexity as the number of A* operations, which is directly proportional to the ground-truth trace length. After training on 500,000 mazes from one generator, the model produces trace lengths that are only loosely correlated with A* trace lengths on held-out mazes from other generators; on obstacle-free grids it produces excessively long traces and frequently fails. Where correlation does appear, it is confined to instances close to the training distribution, lea

Load-bearing premise

The load-bearing premise is that a 380M-parameter model trained purely to imitate A* traces is a faithful stand-in for large reasoning models trained with reinforcement learning and preference alignment, so that findings about its trace lengths carry over to them.

Editorial extensions

If this is right

  • Trace length cannot be used as a proxy for problem difficulty when evaluating models on out-of-distribution inputs.
  • Observed "adaptive" reasoning lengths on in-distribution test sets may be an artifact of approximate recall, not evidence of computation that scales with difficulty.
  • Methods that aim to improve efficiency by shortening reasoning chains may be targeting a property that is not aligned with task complexity.
  • Anthropomorphic readings of intermediate tokens as "thinking effort" require additional evidence beyond trace length.
  • Evaluation of reasoning models should explicitly control distributional distance between training and test data.

Reading between the lines

Editorial extensions of the paper, not claims the author makes directly.

  • A natural extension is to measure distributional distance quantitatively and test whether trace-length correlation degrades smoothly as distance grows; the paper demonstrates the phenomenon but does not fit such a curve.
  • The controlled small-scale result suggests that large reasoning models trained with reinforcement learning on final answers might behave differently, since RL can in principle select for concise or long traces; whether the same distributional-recall pattern survives RL post-training is an open question the paper does not settle.
  • If trace length reflects training priors, then cross-distribution benchmarks are the right setting for evaluating test-time scaling claims; in-distribution accuracy alone could mask non-adaptive trace generation.
  • An interventionist test follows: perturb the maze distribution while holding A* operation counts constant; if trace lengths track the perturbation rather than the counts, the recall explanation is confirmed.
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Editorial analysis

A structured set of objections, weighed in public.

Desk editor's note, referee report, and a circularity audit.

Referee Report

4 major / 6 minor

Summary. The paper trains a ~380M-parameter decoder-only transformer from scratch on linearized A* traces for 30x30 grid-maze pathfinding, using Wilson-algorithm mazes as the training distribution. It then evaluates the model on held-out Wilson mazes, on mazes from four other generation algorithms (Kruskal, DFS, SF-Style, Drunkard), and on obstacle-free 'free-space' problems. The central claim is that the length of the model's generated intermediate tokens is only loosely correlated with the ground-truth A* trace length (a precise, verifiable measure of problem complexity), that the apparent correlation appears only for mazes close to the training distribution, and that this indicates approximate recall rather than problem-adaptive computation. The paper uses this to caution against interpreting long reasoning traces in systems such as DeepSeek R1 as evidence of 'thinking effort.'

Significance. If the central claim survives quantification, this is a useful controlled result. The setup has real strengths: problem complexity is external and verifiable via A* operation counts, the training procedure is fully specified and reproducible, and the 'model organism' framing is honest about the gap between small-scale trace-imitation models and large reasoning models. The paper addresses a timely and important question about whether CoT length is a reliable index of adaptive computation. However, the central claim currently rests on visual inspection of scatter plots; the design is capable of supporting a much stronger quantitative statement, and the missing statistics, censoring handling, and distributional-distance measure are the main obstacles. I would view the paper as making a credible qualitative case that needs additional quantitative rigor before the abstract's strong conclusions can be accepted.

major comments (4)
  1. [§4.1, Fig. 1a] The claim that 'there is very little correlation' is never operationalized. No Pearson/Spearman correlation, R², or confidence interval is reported for the free-space data or for any other maze family. This is load-bearing: Fig. 1a explicitly includes responses that hit the 32k context limit without producing a solution, and censored observations of this kind can substantially attenuate a true correlation. Moreover, only 5 of 100 free-space problems yield a valid plan, so any 'correlation' in that regime is computed over 5 points. Please report correlation coefficients with confidence intervals for each condition, treat truncated responses explicitly (e.g., exclude-and-analyze separately or use a censoring-aware analysis), and report the number of valid plans per condition. The y=x line also conflates correlation with calibration; a strong monotonic association need not lie on y=x if tok
  2. [§4.2, Figs. 1b and 2] The conclusion that correlation 'vanishes as distributional distance increases' is based on comparing exactly two maze families (Wilson vs. Searchformer-style) and no quantitative definition of distributional distance. The paper never measures distance between maze distributions, so the abstract's attribution of the effect to 'distributional distance from the training data' is not supported by a trend. Please (i) report correlation coefficients for all five OOD maze families, (ii) define a measurable distributional distance (e.g., wall density, loop density, graph-theoretic statistics, or solution-length distribution), and (iii) test whether correlation strength decreases monotonically with that distance, or at least present a nonparametric comparison across families. Without this, the central causal claim remains an interpretation of two selected scatter plots rather than a demonstrated
  3. [§1 and §5, transfer to R1] The paper's stated target is the interpretation of long traces in systems like DeepSeek R1, but the experiments use a 380M transformer trained from scratch by supervised imitation of A* traces, with no RL, no final-answer reward, and a domain-specific tokenizer. This is a legitimate model-organism design, but the leap from 'SFT trace imitation does not produce adaptive trace lengths' to 'R1's long traces are not thinking effort' is substantial. Please either (a) add an experiment in the same maze domain with RL or final-answer-reward training and show that the same loose correlation persists, or (b) explicitly restrict the conclusions to the SFT trace-imitation setting and adjust the abstract and Section 5 accordingly. The transfer assumption should be stated as an assumption, not as a consequence of the present experiments.
  4. [§4, data inclusion and validity] The manuscript does not specify whether the scatter plots include only semantically valid generated traces or all generations, and how failures are coded. Since a model that fails to solve a problem can still emit many tokens, mixing truncated and invalid responses into the same scatter can dominate the apparent relationship. The 'excessive length on trivial problems' finding, in particular, may be driven by degenerate repetition rather than by a calibrated length-difficulty relationship. Please report per-condition success rates, state inclusion criteria for scatter points, and analyze valid and invalid traces separately. This is needed to interpret the raw scatter plots and to assess the claim that trace length is not adaptive.
minor comments (6)
  1. [Title/header] The running title 'PERFORMATIVETHINKING?' is missing a space; should be 'PERFORMATIVE THINKING?'.
  2. [§3/§4.2] The maze-generation algorithm is referred to inconsistently as 'Searchformer-style' and 'SF-Style'. Use one name throughout.
  3. [§5] The phrase 'from-scratch computational complexity' is confusing; presumably 'from-scratch' modifies the model, not the complexity. Reword to avoid ambiguity.
  4. [Fig. 1a caption] The caption says 'Points at the top correspond to failures where the model generated tokens until reaching the 32k limit,' but the text does not say how many such points there are. A count or proportion would help.
  5. [§4.1] The phrase 'If there were a correlation, the generated trace lengths would closely match the ground-truth values' conflates correlation with calibration. Rephrase to distinguish correlation strength from agreement with the y=x line.
  6. [Appendix A.2] Training details are given, but there is no statement about code/data availability or a repository link. For reproducibility, please add this.

Circularity Check

0 steps flagged · score 0.0 of 10

No significant circularity: the paper's empirical comparison uses an external A* trace-length benchmark, and the only in-distribution alignment is explicitly treated as approximate recall rather than independent evidence of adaptivity.

full rationale

The paper makes no formal derivation from inputs to conclusions; it is an empirical study. The model is trained from scratch to imitate A* traces on Wilson mazes, then evaluated on held-out mazes from other generators. The 'ground truth A* trace length' is an external, verifiable benchmark, not a parameter fitted to the model's outputs. The central negative finding—that trace length and A* trace length are loosely correlated OOD, and that the Wilson alignment reflects distributional proximity—is not forced by construction: the model could in principle have produced lengths matching A* trace lengths on OOD mazes if it had learned the algorithm, and the observed failure to do so is an empirical result. The in-distribution Wilson alignment is acknowledged in Section 4.2 as being due to the test instances being drawn from the training distribution ('approximate recall'), so the paper does not present a trained-in correlation as an independent confirmation of problem-adaptive computation. There are no self-citations used as load-bearing evidence, no uniqueness theorems imported from the authors, and no ansatz smuggled in via citation to prior work; the A* trace linearization is adopted from Lehnert et al. and Gandhi et al. as a methodological convention, not as a source of the conclusion. Concerns about missing correlation statistics and about whether a 380M supervised trace-imitation model transfers to DeepSeek R1 are external-validity or reporting issues, not circularity.

Assumptions & free parameters 0 free parameters · 4 assumptions · 0 invented entities

No free parameters are fitted to make a derivation work; this is an empirical study. The main postulates are domain assumptions about the model-organism setup and about how to operationalize problem complexity and distributional distance.

assumptions (4)
  • domain assumption A* with Manhattan distance on grid mazes is optimal, and its node-operation count is an appropriate formalization of problem difficulty.
    The paper equates problem difficulty with the number of A* operations (Section 3). This is a definitional choice, not proven equivalent to the actual computation required by the trained model.
  • domain assumption Small transformers trained from scratch on supervised A* traces are faithful model organisms for reasoning behavior of large models like R1.
    Invoked in Section 1 ('model organism' paradigm) and used in Sections 5-6 to draw conclusions about R1-style systems.
  • domain assumption Free-space problems with four layers of outer walls are trivial and should require minimal computation.
    Section 4.1 assumes these problems are the simplest case and uses their long traces to argue trace length is not adaptive.
  • domain assumption Maze-generation algorithm family is a sufficient proxy for distributional distance from training data.
    Sections 4.2 and 5 attribute correlation differences to distributional distance, but no distance measure is computed.

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Cite this review

Pith. "Pith review of Performative Thinking? The Brittle Correlation Between CoT Length and Problem Complexity." pith.science (2026). https://pith.science/paper/N5Q5IOPQ

@misc{pith2026250907339,
  author       = {Pith},
  title        = {Pith review of: Performative Thinking? The Brittle Correlation Between CoT Length and Problem Complexity},
  year         = {2026},
  howpublished = {\url{https://pith.science/paper/N5Q5IOPQ}},
  note         = {Machine review of arXiv:2509.07339}
}
read the original abstract

Intermediate token generation (ITG), where a model produces output before the solution, has been proposed as a method to improve the performance of language models on reasoning tasks. While these reasoning traces or Chain of Thoughts (CoTs) are correlated with performance gains, the mechanisms underlying them remain unclear. A prevailing assumption in the community has been to anthropomorphize these tokens as "thinking", treating longer traces as evidence of higher problem-adaptive computation. In this work, we critically examine whether intermediate token sequence length reflects or correlates with problem difficulty. To do so, we train transformer models from scratch on derivational traces of the A* search algorithm, where the number of operations required to solve a maze problem provides a precise and verifiable measure of problem complexity. We first evaluate the models on trivial free-space problems, finding that even for the simplest tasks, they often produce excessively long reasoning traces and sometimes fail to generate a solution. We then systematically evaluate the model on out-of-distribution problems and find that the intermediate token length and ground truth A* trace length only loosely correlate. We notice that the few cases where correlation appears are those where the problems are closer to the training distribution, suggesting that the effect arises from approximate recall rather than genuine problem-adaptive computation. This suggests that the inherent computational complexity of the problem instance is not a significant factor, but rather its distributional distance from the training data. These results challenge the assumption that intermediate trace generation is adaptive to problem difficulty and caution against interpreting longer sequences in systems like R1 as automatically indicative of "thinking effort".

Figures

Figures reproduced from arXiv: 2509.07339 by the authors.

Figure 1
Figure 1. Comparison of generated intermediate token length (Y-axis) with ground-truth A* trace length (X-axis). The [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p003_1.png] view at source ↗
Figure 2
Figure 2. Comparison of trace length scatter plots for problems generated using Wilson and Searchformer Algorithms. [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p004_2.png] view at source ↗
Figure 3
Figure 3. Example grid of a Free-space problem. It is a 30x30 grid with no obstacles in the inner grid. The start and [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p008_3.png] view at source ↗

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    Wilson’s algorithm:This is the algorithm that we use to generate mazes for training models. Wilson’s algorithm generates uniform random mazes by performing loop-erased random walks from unvisited cells until they connect to the current maze [ 31]. Each walk removes any loops i...

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    This results in a fully connected maze without loops, though the maze distribution is not perfectly uniform

    Kruskal’s algorithm:Kruskal’s algorithm, originally proposed for finding a minimum spanning forest of an undirected edge-weighted graph [12], generates mazes by treating each cell as a node and randomly removing walls between unconnected regions, using a union–find structure t...

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    When it hits a dead-end (no unvisited neighbors), it backtracks until it finds a new direction to explore, repeating until all cells are visited and connected into a complete maze

    Randomized Depth-First Search algorithm:The randomized depth-first search (DFS) or recursive back- tracker algorithm generates mazes by carving a path forward until reaching a dead-end [28]. When it hits a dead-end (no unvisited neighbors), it backtracks until it finds a new d...

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    Drunkard’s Walk

    Drunkard’s Walk:We implement a version of the “Drunkard’s Walk” algorithm, as described by [11], and originally used for procedurally generating dungeons for top-down two-dimensional video games. Starting from a grid of solid walls, a random walk is performed, carving out the ...

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    Tasks are generated by exhaustive rejection sampling: first, randomly select a number between 30% and 50%

    Searchformer style generation:We also implement the random generation algorithm used in the Searchformer paper [14], though we use it for evaluation rather than training. Tasks are generated by exhaustive rejection sampling: first, randomly select a number between 30% and 50%....

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    In our case, we chose the number of levels of outer walls to be 4

    Free-space algorithm:In this algorithm, we first select the number of levels of outer walls. In our case, we chose the number of levels of outer walls to be 4. Within the inner grid, a start cell and a goal cell are then chosen randomly, with no walls placed in the inner grid....

Pith tools

Reviewed August 4, 2026 · model on record in the stance chip above.