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arxiv 2210.04648 v1 pith:S5LTRDCZ submitted 2022-10-10 econ.GN q-fin.EC

FX Resilience around the World: Fighting Volatile Cross-Border Capital Flows

classification econ.GN q-fin.EC
keywords capitaleffectvolatilityadverseexchangefundamentalsmacroeconomicresilience
verification ladder T0 review T1 audit T2 compute T3 formal T4 reserved
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We show that capital flow (CF) volatility exerts an adverse effect on exchange rate (FX) volatility, regardless of whether capital controls have been put in place. However, this effect can be significantly moderated by certain macroeconomic fundamentals that reflect trade openness, foreign assets holdings, monetary policy easing, fiscal sustainability, and financial development. Passing the threshold levels of these macroeconomic fundamentals, the adverse effect of CF volatility may be negligible. We further construct an intuitive FX resilience measure, which provides an assessment of the strength of a country's exchange rates.

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