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This paper argues that binary interaction is the dominant driver of core-collapse supernova diversity, and that between 3% and 27% of hydrogen-poor supernovae should show periodic signals from a surviving companion.

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2026-08-01 01:19 UTC pith:SUPOAXBH

load-bearing objection A clear and honest proceedings summary of the author's own population-synthesis papers; not a new research contribution, but the underlying claims are substantial and the summary is good enough to merit referee attention when read together with the companion papers. the 4 major comments →

arxiv 2607.25837 v1 pith:SUPOAXBH submitted 2026-07-28 astro-ph.SR astro-ph.HE

Progenitor models of supernovae interacting with their binary companions

Andrea Ercolino This is my paper
classification astro-ph.SR astro-ph.HE
keywords core-collapse supernovaebinary stellar evolutionpopulation synthesisinteracting supernovaecircumstellar mediumcompanion-compact-object interactionsupernova ratesstripped-envelope supernovae
verification ladder T0 review T1 audit T2 compute T3 formal T4 reserved

The pith

A machine-rendered reading of the paper's core claim, the machinery that carries it, and where it could break.

Core-collapse supernovae are not explosions of single stars: this paper uses a large grid of single- and binary-star evolution models to argue that most progenitors have exchanged mass with a companion, as donors, accretors, or merger products. The predicted fractions of Type IIP/L (57–76%), Type Ibc (18–34%), and Type IIb (1–4%) supernovae broadly match volume-limited surveys, with binary-driven stripping accounting for the bulk of H-poor explosions. Late-stage binary mass transfer is also shown to naturally produce the aspherical circumstellar material around many interacting supernovae, explaining up to 2–4% H-rich and <4% H-poor interacting events. The central new prediction is that 3–27% of hydrogen-poor supernovae, depending on natal kick assumptions, undergo periodic interaction between the newborn compact object and a surviving companion, yielding light-curve modulations on timescales of days to years like those of SN2022jli.

Core claim

The paper claims that binary evolution, not single-star winds, is the main reason core-collapse supernovae look so different from one another. Its population synthesis, applied to a comprehensive grid of detailed evolutionary models, finds that the majority of Type IIP/L and Ibc progenitors have been affected by mass transfer — many as accretors or merger products, and most Ibc progenitors as donors stripped by a companion. It also identifies two binary channels that produce circumstellar material just before explosion — Case C mass transfer from red supergiant donors giving H-rich CSM, and Case BB mass transfer from stripped donors giving H-poor CSM — which together account for roughly 5% o

What carries the argument

The analysis rests on a grid-based population synthesis model that assigns birth probabilities to thousands of single- and binary-star evolution tracks, covering initial masses from 5 to 100 solar masses and orbital periods from 1.1 to 5000 days. Each exploding model is mapped to a supernova type from its core-collapse structure, ejecta composition, and recent mass-loss history. Two physical mechanisms carry the argument: late-stage binary mass transfer (Case C and Case BB) that builds circumstellar material around the progenitor, and post-explosion interaction between the newborn compact object and a companion star that has been inflated by the ejecta, which the model treats with semi-analy

Load-bearing premise

The load-bearing assumption is that each stellar model can be reliably assigned a supernova type from its structure at core collapse, ejecta composition, and recent mass-loss history; this mapping is carried over from prior work rather than validated here, and if partially stripped or interacting progenitors are misclassified, the predicted fractions and the 3–27% range would shift.

What would settle it

A volume-limited sample of at least a hundred hydrogen-poor core-collapse supernovae with dense, long-cadence light curves that shows no periodic modulation would falsify even the 3% lower bound of the predicted CCI fraction. Alternatively, if the predicted orbital-period distribution (days to years) is ruled out by the observed periods of periodic transients, or if deep imaging resolves the predicted companions around SN2022jli-like events and finds none, the model would be contradicted.

Watch this falsifier. Get emailed when new claim-graph text bears on it.

If this is right

  • Most Type IIP/L and Ibc supernova progenitors have undergone binary mass transfer, so single-star-only models miss the diversity of explosion properties.
  • Late-stage binary mass transfer can account for the observed rates of Type IIn and Ibn supernovae (up to 2–4% and <4% of core-collapse events, respectively) and explains why many interacting supernovae have disk-like, aspherical circumstellar material.
  • A substantial minority of hydrogen-poor supernovae, 3–27% depending on the kick prescription, should display periodic post-explosion modulations with orbital periods of days to years.
  • The predicted orbital-period distribution gives a direct target for archival and future transient surveys searching for periodic light curves, and individual matched models can predict companion properties, including for SN2022jli where the companion may be directly detectable.
  • The bimodal ejecta-mass distribution predicted for Type Ibc supernovae—a low-mass peak from donor stars and a high-mass peak from accretors/mergers/single stars—offers a testable prediction against future volume-limited samples.

Where Pith is reading between the lines

These are editorial extensions of the paper, not claims the author makes directly.

  • If the 3–27% estimate is right, a systematic search of existing high-cadence light curves of stripped-envelope supernovae should turn up more periodic transients than the three currently known, potentially dozens.
  • The claim that most 'single-star-like' Type IIP/L explosions are actually binary accretors or merger products implies that subtle chemical or circumstellar signatures of mergers could be sought in high-resolution spectroscopy of nearby events.
  • The underproduction of Type IIb supernovae relative to observations pinpoints envelope-stripping physics as the next uncertainty to constrain; improved mass-loss prescriptions for partially stripped stars would sharpen the whole rate prediction.
  • The predicted period distribution provides a prior that can be used to distinguish compact-object–companion interaction from other periodic mechanisms (e.g., pulsational pair-instability or dust echoes) in future light curves.

Editorial analysis

A structured set of objections, weighed in public.

Desk editor's note, referee report, simulated authors' rebuttal, and a circularity audit.

Referee Report

4 major / 5 minor

Summary. This IAU Symposium proceedings paper summarizes recent population-synthesis work by the author and collaborators. Using the SN-ORACLE code to post-process detailed single- and binary stellar evolution grids, it predicts relative fractions of core-collapse SN types (IIP/L, Ibc, IIb, 87A-like), the fraction of progenitors affected by binary interaction, rates of interacting SNe from late-stage binary mass transfer, and the fraction of H-poor SNe that may exhibit periodic companion–compact-object interaction (CCI). The central claims are that binary interaction is the dominant driver of CCSN diversity, that late-stage binary mass transfer can account for much of the observed Type IIn and Ibn populations, and that periodic CCI may affect 3–27% of H-poor CCSNe, with orbital periods of days to years.

Significance. If correct, the paper provides concrete, testable predictions: the binary-affected fractions of IIP/L and Ibc progenitors, a bimodal ejecta-mass distribution for Type Ibc SNe, a binary origin for a substantial fraction of interacting SNe, and a specific orbital-period distribution for periodic CCI that can be searched for in SN light curves. The comparison with observed rates from several surveys is a strength, and the explicit statement that the fraction of CCI models with observable modulation is still unknown is appropriately cautious. However, the quantitative claims are almost entirely deferred to two companion papers, and the single most important step — the mapping from stellar-structure models to spectroscopically defined SN types — is not specified or validated here. The paper is therefore best read as a progress report whose central conclusions require the companion papers to supply the missing support.

major comments (4)
  1. [§2] The SN-type assignment is the single load-bearing step: 'the structure at CC, the composition of the ejecta, and recent mass-loss history are used to assign the SN type (see Ercolino et al. 2026a for details)'. Every quantitative result — the 57–76% IIP/L fraction, 70–97% binary-affected Ibc fraction, and 3–27% CCI fraction — passes through this mapping. The mapping is not specified here, and no validation against observed spectral classifications is presented. Please provide at least a summary of the mapping rules and a demonstration that the model classes are equivalent to the spectroscopic classes used in the Fig. 1 comparison, or explicitly reframe all claims as conditional on an unvalidated classification.
  2. [§3, Fig. 1] The predicted ranges (e.g., 57–76% for IIP/L, 18–34% for Ibc) are presented as horizontal bands without stating that these are spreads across model variants, not statistical uncertainties. This risks overinterpreting the agreement with observations. Please state explicitly which model parameter (kick prescription, mass-transfer stability, explosion criterion) drives each range, and whether any individual model variant is simultaneously consistent with all observed rates. Without this, the 'broadly consistent' claim is weaker than it appears.
  3. [§4] The claim that late-stage mass transfer can account for 'the bulk of observed interacting SNe' is supported only by the statement that the model fractions (2–4% H-rich, <4% H-poor) are 'consistent' with observed IIn and Ibn rates. However, the model only produces CSM from mass transfer, while many observed IIn SNe show pre-explosion outbursts that the model 'still fails to produce'. Please quantify how many of the observed IIn/Ibn events are actually expected to be reproduced by this channel, and state whether the 2–4% upper values come from a single model variant or are robust across the grid.
  4. [§5] The abstract and Section 6 state that CCI 'could account for between 3% and 27% of all H-poor CCSNe', but the paper itself notes that 'the fraction of these models which would then exhibit an observable modulation in the light curve is yet to be determined.' These two statements are not equivalent: 3–27% is the fraction of simulated systems in which periodic CCI occurs, not necessarily the fraction with observable periodic modulation. Please rephrase the central claim to avoid conflating the theoretical occurrence rate with the observable rate.
minor comments (5)
  1. [§2] The adopted birth-binary fraction of 75% is stated as a fixed input, not varied. Since it strongly affects the binary-affected fractions, a sentence on the sensitivity to this choice would help.
  2. [§3, Fig. 1] The figure caption lists surveys but the scatter points are not labeled in the text; please clarify which colors/symbols correspond to which survey.
  3. [§5, Fig. 3] The period distribution in the right panel is normalized to 100% per model, which hides the overall rate; the text states the 3–27% range but the figure cannot be used to recover it. Consider adding a normalization that reflects the absolute rate.
  4. [§5] Minor wording: 'SN2022jli is the most promising SN in which the companion is is still potentially observable' has a duplicated 'is'.
  5. [References] The reference 'Soumagnac et al. 2017' in the text appears as 'Soumagnac et al. 2020' in the reference list; please correct the year or entry.

Circularity Check

0 steps flagged

No significant circularity: predicted fractions are model outputs compared with independent observed rates, not fitted or defined into existence.

full rationale

The paper's derivation chain is a standard population-synthesis pipeline: adopt initial mass/period/binary-fraction distributions, evolve single and binary models on a large grid, classify the resulting core-collapse models by physical structure and envelope composition, and compare the predicted type fractions with volume-limited observational samples. The target quantities — Type IIP/L, Ibc, IIb, interacting-SN, and CCI fractions — are not used as inputs to the model. The quoted 3–27% CCI range and the 57–76% IIP/L range arise from varying kick prescriptions, mass-transfer stability criteria, and explosion criteria; no parameter is fitted to the observed SN-type fractions or to SN2022jli. The type-assignment step is deferred to a self-citation (Ercolino et al. 2026a), and much of the machinery is inherited from the author's own SN-ORACLE papers, which raises transparency and reproducibility concerns but does not amount to a definitional equivalence: the mapping uses physical structure, ejecta composition, and mass-loss history, not the observed rates, and the resulting predictions are externally falsifiable against the cited surveys. The paper itself flags its remaining gaps (the fraction of CCI systems that would exhibit observable modulation is not determined; the scenario does not reproduce pre-SN outbursts), which are limitations rather than circular steps. No load-bearing step reduces by construction to its own input, so no circularity is found.

Axiom & Free-Parameter Ledger

7 free parameters · 6 axioms · 0 invented entities

The central predictions are inherited from a population synthesis code (SN-ORACLE) and a detailed binary grid that are not described sufficiently in this paper. Input assumptions such as the 75% birth-binary fraction, Salpeter IMF, flat mass-ratio and log-flat period distributions, plus the choice of natal-kick prescription, mass-transfer stability criterion, and explosion criterion, all shape the quoted fractions. The CCI 3–27% range is explicitly a spread across model variants, not an empirically determined rate. No new particle, force, or entity is introduced; CCI is a previously proposed interaction mechanism.

free parameters (7)
  • birth_binary_fraction = 0.75
    Adopted from Sana et al. (2012); sets the relative weights of single-star and binary channels, directly determining the predicted SN-type fractions.
  • IMF_slope = Salpeter (alpha=2.35)
    Assumed initial mass function in assigning birth probabilities; shapes the mass distribution of progenitors.
  • initial_mass_ratio_distribution = flat
    Assumed flat initial mass-ratio distribution; affects how many systems undergo mass transfer and merger.
  • initial_period_distribution = log-flat over 1.1–5000 d
    Assumed orbital period distribution; sets the fraction of interacting versus non-interacting binaries.
  • natal_kick_prescription = three variants: Disberg & Mandel 2025; Kruckow et al. 2018; Valli et al. 2025
    The CCI fraction 3–27% is spanned by these prescriptions; no unique kick model is favored.
  • mass_transfer_stability_criterion = varied; detailed mass-transfer history
    Determines whether systems merge or continue evolving; affects donor/accretor fractions and ejecta-mass bimodality.
  • explosion_criterion = structure-at-CC criterion, model-dependent
    Whether a star explodes as a SN or collapses directly to a black hole changes the high-mass ejecta peak and can remove it entirely (Section 3).
axioms (6)
  • domain assumption Stars with initial masses >~9 Msun explode as core-collapse SNe.
    Section 1; standard stellar evolution assumption used to define the progenitor sample.
  • domain assumption Most massive stars are born in close binaries; a 75% birth-binary fraction is adopted.
    Sections 1–2; based on Sana et al. (2012, 2025); the population synthesis weights depend on this.
  • domain assumption Observed SN spectral classes (IIP/L, IIb, Ibc, IIn, Ibn) map to progenitor H-content and mass-loss history.
    Section 1; used to compare model-predicted types with observed rates.
  • ad hoc to paper The SN type of each model is assigned from its structure at core collapse, ejecta composition, and recent mass-loss history.
    Section 2; this mapping is from Ercolino et al. (2026a) and is not independently validated here; errors would propagate to all type fractions.
  • ad hoc to paper Ejecta-companion interaction inflates the companion; the newborn compact object skimming the inflated envelope produces periodic CCI.
    Section 5; based on Hirai et al. (2018, 2025) and Ogata et al. (2021); the population models assume these semi-analytic prescriptions.
  • domain assumption The detailed binary grid from Jin et al. (2026) and single-star models are accurate enough for population synthesis.
    Section 2; all results inherit the physical assumptions of the underlying stellar evolution codes.

pith-pipeline@v1.3.0-alltime-deepseek · 6102 in / 15824 out tokens · 135366 ms · 2026-08-01T01:19:59.557271+00:00 · methodology

0 comments
read the original abstract

The appearance of nearly all core-collapse (CC) supernovae (SNe) is largely affected by the interaction between their progenitors and a close binary companion. Using a comprehensive, state-of-the-art grid of single- and binary stellar evolution models, the relative frequencies of SN types are predicted, as well as the distribution functions of their main properties. SNe that interact with nearby circumstellar material are included, namely those that explode during ongoing binary mass transfer, and are found to account for ~5% of all CCSNe, consistently with observations. The interaction between the newly born compact object and the companion is also investigated, which may produce observable signatures similar to those seen in SN2022jli. These SNe could account for between 3% and 27% of all H-poor CCSNe. These results will help develop strategies for identifying such supernovae in past and future searches, which will help to constrain uncertain physics in single and binary evolution models.

Figures

Figures reproduced from arXiv: 2607.25837 by Andrea Ercolino.

Figure 1
Figure 1. Figure 1: Fraction of CCSNe of different types (different panels) predicted across different population models (horizontal bands) compared to the values inferred from volume-limited samples (scatter) from Eldridge et al. (2013, E13), Graur et al. (2017) from the LOSS survey’s high-mass galaxy subsample (LOSS), Ma et al. (2025, M25), Pessi et al. (2025) for the ASAS-SN survey (ASAS-SN), and Srivastav et al. (2026) fo… view at source ↗
Figure 2
Figure 2. Figure 2: Ejecta mass distribution of Type Ibc SNe in one population model. Different colors denote different progenitors, from donor stars in binaries (cyan), accretors in binaries (magenta), mergers (yellow) and effectively single-stars (hatched). The legend reports the relative contribution of each progenitor to Type Ibc SNe. Figure adapted from Ercolino et al. (2026a). models, especially for partially stripped e… view at source ↗
Figure 3
Figure 3. Figure 3: Left: Schematic evolution of close-by binaries following the explosion of the initially more massive companion, from core-collapse (top), through ejecta-companion interaction, and compact-object￾companion interaction (CCI), to the deflation of the companion (bottom), with characteristic timescales from the time of core collapse. Right: post-SN orbital period distributions for binary models where periodic C… view at source ↗

discussion (0)

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Reference graph

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