Group Finding in the Stellar Halo using Photometric Surveys: Current Sensitivity and Future Prospects

The ubiquity of substructure in the stellar halo has already been demonstrated by the SDSS and 2MASS and future surveys promise to explore the halo in ever more detail. This paper examines what can be learnt from current and future photometric-databases using group-finding techniques. We compare groups recovered from a sample of M-giants from 2MASS with those found in synthetic surveys of simulated $\Lambda$CDM stellar halos and demonstrate broad consistency. We also find that these recovered groups are likely to represent the majority of high-luminosity ($\log(L/L_{Sun})>6.67$) satellites accreted within the last 10 Gyr and on orbits with apocenters within 100 kpc. However the sensitivity of the M-giant survey to accretion events that were either ancient, from low-luminosity objects or those on radial orbits is limited because of the low number of stars, bias towards high-metallicity stars and the shallow depth. We examine the extent to which these limitations are addressed by current and future surveys, in particular catalogues of main-sequence turn-off (MSTO) stars from SDSS and LSST, and of RR-Lyrae stars from LSST or PanSTARRS. The MSTO surveys are more sensitive to low-luminosity events ($\log(L/L_{Sun}~5$ or less) than the 2MASS M-giant sample, while the RR-Lyrae surveys, with superior depth, are good at detecting events on highly eccentric orbits. When combined we expect these photometric surveys to provide a comprehensive picture of the last 10 Gyr of Galactic accretion. Events older than this are too phase mixed to be discovered and would require additional information such as velocity and chemical abundance.