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arxiv: 2010.14812 · v2 · pith:WU4BCVH6new · submitted 2020-10-28 · 🌌 astro-ph.EP · astro-ph.SR

The Occurrence of Rocky Habitable Zone Planets Around Solar-Like Stars from Kepler Data

Steve Bryson , Michelle Kunimoto , Ravi K. Kopparapu , Jeffrey L. Coughlin , William J. Borucki , David Koch , Victor Silva Aguirre , Christopher Allen
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Geert Barentsen Natalie. M. Batalha Travis Berger Alan Boss Lars A. Buchhave Christopher J. Burke Douglas A. Caldwell Jennifer R. Campbell Joseph Catanzarite Hema Chandrasekharan William J. Chaplin Jessie L. Christiansen Jorgen Christensen-Dalsgaard David R. Ciardi Bruce D. Clarke William D. Cochran Jessie L. Dotson Laurance R. Doyle Eduardo Seperuelo Duarte Edward W. Dunham Andrea K. Dupree Michael Endl James L. Fanson Eric B. Ford Maura Fujieh Thomas N. Gautier III John C. Geary Ronald L Gilliland Forrest R. Girouard Alan Gould Michael R. Haas Christopher E. Henze Matthew J. Holman Andrew Howard Steve B. Howell Daniel Huber Roger C. Hunter Jon M. Jenkins Hans Kjeldsen Jeffery Kolodziejczak Kipp Larson David W. Latham Jie Li Savita Mathur Soren Meibom Chris Middour Robert L. Morris Timothy D. Morton Fergal Mullally Susan E. Mullally David Pletcher Andrej Prsa Samuel N. Quinn Elisa V. Quintana Darin Ragozzine Solange V. Ramirez Dwight T. Sanderfer Dimitar Sasselov Shawn E. Seader Megan Shabram Avi Shporer Jeffrey C. Smith Jason H. Steffen Martin Still Guillermo Torres John Troeltzsch Joseph D. Twicken Akm Kamal Uddin Jeffrey E. Van Cleve Janice Voss Lauren Weiss William F. Welsh Bill Wohler Khadeejah A Zamudio
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classification 🌌 astro-ph.EP astro-ph.SR
keywords planetsoccurrencecompletenessplanetaroundoplusratesrocky
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We present occurrence rates for rocky planets in the habitable zones (HZ) of main-sequence dwarf stars based on the Kepler DR25 planet candidate catalog and Gaia-based stellar properties. We provide the first analysis in terms of star-dependent instellation flux, which allows us to track HZ planets. We define $\eta_\oplus$ as the HZ occurrence of planets with radius between 0.5 and 1.5 $R_\oplus$ orbiting stars with effective temperatures between 4800 K and 6300 K. We find that $\eta_\oplus$ for the conservative HZ is between $0.37^{+0.48}_{-0.21}$ (errors reflect 68\% credible intervals) and $0.60^{+0.90}_{-0.36}$ planets per star, while the optimistic HZ occurrence is between $0.58^{+0.73}_{-0.33}$ and $0.88^{+1.28}_{-0.51}$ planets per star. These bounds reflect two extreme assumptions about the extrapolation of completeness beyond orbital periods where DR25 completeness data are available. The large uncertainties are due to the small number of detected small HZ planets. We find similar occurrence rates using both a Poisson likelihood Bayesian analysis and Approximate Bayesian Computation. Our results are corrected for catalog completeness and reliability. Both completeness and the planet occurrence rate are dependent on stellar effective temperature. We also present occurrence rates for various stellar populations and planet size ranges. We estimate with $95\%$ confidence that, on average, the nearest HZ planet around G and K dwarfs is about 6 pc away, and there are about 4 HZ rocky planets around G and K dwarfs within 10 pc of the Sun.

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