Discovery goals and opportunities in high energy physics: a defense of BSM-oriented exploration over signalism

Discoveries come through exclusions, confirmations or revolutionary findings with respect to a theory canon populated by the Standard Model (SM) and beyond the SM (BSM) theories. Guaranteed discoveries are accomplished only through pursuit of BSM exclusion/confirmation, and thus require investment in the continual formation and analysis of a vibrant theory canon combined with investment in experiment with demonstrated capacity to make BSM exclusions/confirmations. Risks develop when steering away from BSM-oriented work toward its methodological rival, "signalism," which seeks to realize SM falsification or revolutionary discoveries outside the context of any BSM rationale. It is argued that such an approach leads to inscrutable exertions that reduce prospects for all discovery. The concepts are applied to the European Strategy Update, which seeks to identify future investments in forefront experiment that bring a balance of guaranteed and prospective value.