Validating Digital Traces with Survey Data: The Use Case of Religiosity

This paper tests the validity of a digital trace database (Politus) obtained from Twitter, with a recently conducted representative social survey, focusing on the use case of religiosity in Turkey. Religiosity scores in the research are extracted using supervised machine learning under the Politus project. The validation analysis depends on two steps. First, we compare the performances of two alternative tweet-to-user transformation strategies, and second, test for the impact of resampling via the MRP technique. Estimates of the Politus are examined at both aggregate and region-level. The results are intriguing for future research on measuring public opinion via social media data.