Measuring the Equation-of-state of the Universe: Pitfalls and Prospects

We explore various pitfalls and challenges in determining the equation-of-state (w) of dark energy component that dominates the universe and causes the current accelerated expansion. We demonstrated in an earlier paper the existence of a degeneracy that makes it impossible to resolve well the value of w or its time-derivative with supernovae data. Here we consider standard practices, such as assuming priors that w is constant or greater than -1, and show that they also can lead to gross errors in estimating the true equation-of-state. We further consider combining measurements of the cosmic microwave background anisotropy and the Alcock-Paczynski test with supernovae data and find that the improvement in resolving the time-derivative of w is marginal, although the combination can constrain its present value perhaps to 20 percent uncertainty.