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arxiv: cond-mat/9906343 · v1 · submitted 1999-06-23 · ❄️ cond-mat.stat-mech · cond-mat.dis-nn· q-fin.ST

Indeterminacy in foreign exchange market

classification ❄️ cond-mat.stat-mech cond-mat.dis-nnq-fin.ST
keywords timedistributionsdynamicsexchangeforeignindeterminacypricescales
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We discuss price variations distributions in foreign exchange markets, characterizing them both in calendar and business time frameworks. The price dynamics is found to be the result of two distinct processes, a multi-variance diffusion and an error process. The presence of the latter, which dominates at short time scales, leads to indeterminacy principle in finance. Furthermore, dynamics does not allow for a scheme based on independent probability distributions, since volatility exhibits a strong correlation even at the shortest time scales.

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