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Upper Limits in the Case That Zero Events are Observed: An Intuitive Solution to the Background Dependence Puzzle
High Energy Physics - Experiment · Submitted 10 Feb 2000
abstract compiled · 2026-09-23 · no language-model review
The authors' main claim On the other hand, the Bayesian approach leads to a result which is background independent.
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The abstract, sentence by sentence
We compare the ``unified approach'' for the estimation of upper limits with an approach based on the Bayes theory, in the special case that no events are observed. The ``unified approach'' predicts, in this case, an upper limit that decreases with the increase in the expected level of background. This seems absurd. On the other hand, the Bayesian approach leads to a result which is background independent. An explanation of the Bayesian result is presented, together with suggested reasons for the paradoxical result of the ``unified approach''.
background contribution method result interpretation main claim
| # | sentence | role | the authors' own work | states the main conclusion | strength |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| s0 | We compare the ``unified approach'' for the estimation of upper limits with an approach based on the Bayes theory, in the special case that no events are observed. | contribution 0.88 | 0.82 | 0.05 | asserted 0.95 |
| s1 | The ``unified approach'' predicts, in this case, an upper limit that decreases with the increase in the expected level of background. This seems absurd. | result 0.68 | 0.30 | 0.17 | asserted 0.99 |
| s2 | On the other hand, the Bayesian approach leads to a result which is background independent. | result 0.99 | 0.34 | 0.31 | asserted 1.00 |
| s3 | An explanation of the Bayesian result is presented, together with suggested reasons for the paradoxical result of the ``unified approach''. | contribution 0.60 | 0.85 | 0.16 | asserted 0.79 |
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Original abstract
We compare the ``unified approach'' for the estimation of upper limits with an approach based on the Bayes theory, in the special case that no events are observed. The ``unified approach'' predicts, in this case, an upper limit that decreases with the increase in the expected level of background. This seems absurd. On the other hand, the Bayesian approach leads to a result which is background independent. An explanation of the Bayesian result is presented, together with suggested reasons for the paradoxical result of the ``unified approach''.
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The background free CL is approximately CL(%)$= 1 - exp(-N^model)$ [ref] .
Implication of the non-detection of neutrinos above 2PeV · Constraining GZK Neutrino Models · 0.95
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