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arxiv: math/0602325 · v1 · submitted 2006-02-15 · 🧮 math.ST · stat.TH

High moment partial sum processes of residuals in GARCH models and their applications

classification 🧮 math.ST stat.TH
keywords partialprocessprocessesmomentresidualsgarchcorrectioncusum
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In this paper we construct high moment partial sum processes based on residuals of a GARCH model when the mean is known to be 0. We consider partial sums of $k$th powers of residuals, CUSUM processes and self-normalized partial sum processes. The $k$th power partial sum process converges to a Brownian process plus a correction term, where the correction term depends on the $k$th moment $\mu_k$ of the innovation sequence. If $\mu_k=0$, then the correction term is 0 and, thus, the $k$th power partial sum process converges weakly to the same Gaussian process as does the $k$th power partial sum of the i.i.d. innovations sequence. In particular, since $\mu_1=0$, this holds for the first moment partial sum process, but fails for the second moment partial sum process. We also consider the CUSUM and the self-normalized processes, that is, standardized by the residual sample variance. These behave as if the residuals were asymptotically i.i.d. We also study the joint distribution of the $k$th and $(k+1)$st self-normalized partial sum processes. Applications to change-point problems and goodness-of-fit are considered, in particular, CUSUM statistics for testing GARCH model structure change and the Jarque--Bera omnibus statistic for testing normality of the unobservable innovation distribution of a GARCH model. The use of residuals for constructing a kernel density function estimation of the innovation distribution is discussed.

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