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Polynomial epidemics and clustering in contact networks
Populations and Evolution · Submitted 4 Jun 2004
abstract compiled · 2026-09-23 · no language-model review
The authors' main claim We show that this implies a significant reduction in the effective reproductive rate of the epidemic, and describe a general mechanism, related to the clustering properties of the disease transmission network, capable of explaining this reduction.
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The abstract, sentence by sentence
It is widely known that the spread of the HIV virus was slower than exponential in several populations, even at the very beginning of the epidemic. We show that this implies a significant reduction in the effective reproductive rate of the epidemic, and describe a general mechanism, related to the clustering properties of the disease transmission network, capable of explaining this reduction. Our considerations provide a new angle on polynomial epidemic processes, and may have implications for the choice of strategy against such epidemics.
background contribution method result interpretation main claim
| # | sentence | role | the authors' own work | states the main conclusion | strength |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| s0 | It is widely known that the spread of the HIV virus was slower than exponential in several populations, even at the very beginning of the epidemic. | background 1.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 | asserted 0.99 |
| s1 | We show that this implies a significant reduction in the effective reproductive rate of the epidemic, and describe a general mechanism, related to the clustering properties of the disease transmission network, capable of explaining this reduction. | contribution 0.79 | 0.94 | 0.83 | asserted 1.00 |
| s2 | Our considerations provide a new angle on polynomial epidemic processes, and may have implications for the choice of strategy against such epidemics. | interpretation 0.93 | 0.30 | 0.14 | hedged possibility 0.96 |
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Original abstract
It is widely known that the spread of the HIV virus was slower than exponential in several populations, even at the very beginning of the epidemic. We show that this implies a significant reduction in the effective reproductive rate of the epidemic, and describe a general mechanism, related to the clustering properties of the disease transmission network, capable of explaining this reduction. Our considerations provide a new angle on polynomial epidemic processes, and may have implications for the choice of strategy against such epidemics.
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