Pith Number

pith:3KMB42EW

pith:2026:3KMB42EW6BAKZBNNCTOATOES67

not attested not anchored not stored refs resolved

State-resolved multimodal contributions to stratospheric polar vortex predictability

Chunhua Zeng, Dan Zhao, Shuo Yang, Tingting Xue, Xiaosong Chen, Yongwen Zhang

Stratospheric polar vortex predictability is dominated by persistence of the leading state on short timescales but draws from higher-order structures and tropospheric variability on longer ones.

arxiv:2605.13417 v1 · 2026-05-13 · physics.ao-ph

Open paper page JSON Open Graph Bundle Merged state Verified badge What is a Pith Number?

Add to your LaTeX paper

\usepackage{pith}
\pithnumber{3KMB42EW6BAKZBNNCTOATOES67}

Prints a linked badge after your title and injects PDF metadata. Compiles on arXiv. Learn more · Embed verified badge

Record completeness

1 Bitcoin timestamp

2 Internet Archive

3 Author claim open · sign in to claim

4 Citations open

5 Replications open

✓ Portable graph bundle live · download bundle · merged state

The bundle contains the canonical record plus signed events. A mirror can host it anywhere and recompute the same current state with the deterministic merge algorithm.

Claims

C1strongest claim

We show that short-term predictability is dominated by persistence of the leading stratospheric state, whereas extended predictability arises from higher-order stratospheric structures and tropospheric variability.

C2weakest assumption

That the eigen microstates extracted from geopotential height fields represent dynamically coherent circulation states whose causal influences can be meaningfully quantified by mesoscopic Granger causality.

C3one line summary

Stratospheric polar vortex predictability is multimodal, with short-term forecasts dominated by persistence of the leading state and extended forecasts arising from higher-order stratospheric structures plus tropospheric variability.

References

39 extracted · 39 resolved · 0 Pith anchors

[1] Baldwin and Timothy J 2001 · doi:10.1126/science.1063315

[2] Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Amy H. Butler, Andrew Charlton-Perez, Bel´ en Ayarzag¨ uena, Mark P. Baldwin, Etienne Dunn-Sigouin, Jason C. Furtado, Chaim I. Garfinkel, Peter Hitchcock, Alexey Y. Karpechko, 2020 · doi:10.1029/2019jd030923

[3] Baldwin and Timothy J 1999 · doi:10.1029/1999jd900445

[4] David W. J. Thompson and John M. Wallace. Annular modes in the extratropical circulation. part i: Month-to-month variability.Journal of Climate, 13(5):1000–1016,

[5] Journal of Climate , author = 2000 · doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013

Receipt and verification

First computed	2026-05-18T02:44:47.365053Z
Builder	pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1
Signature	Pith Ed25519 (`pith-v1-2026-05`) · public key
Schema	pith-number/v1.0

Canonical hash

da981e6896f040ac85ad14dc09b892f7d1503b63e1c81a6fa59aa7a9e92d06ef

Aliases

arxiv: 2605.13417 · arxiv_version: 2605.13417v1 · doi: 10.48550/arxiv.2605.13417 · pith_short_12: 3KMB42EW6BAK · pith_short_16: 3KMB42EW6BAKZBNN · pith_short_8: 3KMB42EW

Agent API

Resolver JSON Graph JSON Events JSON Schema Signing key

Verify this Pith Number yourself

curl -sH 'Accept: application/ld+json' https://pith.science/pith/3KMB42EW6BAKZBNNCTOATOES67 \
  | jq -c '.canonical_record' \
  | python3 -c "import sys,json,hashlib; b=json.dumps(json.loads(sys.stdin.read()), sort_keys=True, separators=(',',':'), ensure_ascii=False).encode(); print(hashlib.sha256(b).hexdigest())"
# expect: da981e6896f040ac85ad14dc09b892f7d1503b63e1c81a6fa59aa7a9e92d06ef

Canonical record JSON

{
  "metadata": {
    "abstract_canon_sha256": "e54d2cc3ffcfed4b5c3a3815a2b1133cdef731a1ad6164539f7eed1b8e0ae2f1",
    "cross_cats_sorted": [],
    "license": "http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/",
    "primary_cat": "physics.ao-ph",
    "submitted_at": "2026-05-13T12:13:13Z",
    "title_canon_sha256": "5c8352d94900f30284d2b805ea5346e7d76882f39d9f8999259d7529552e0ac8"
  },
  "schema_version": "1.0",
  "source": {
    "id": "2605.13417",
    "kind": "arxiv",
    "version": 1
  }
}