Pith Number

pith:MYPJ2XRD

pith:2025:MYPJ2XRD4KO4IHKTCCTSNJLTCV

not attested not anchored not stored refs pending

Pitfalls in Evaluating Language Model Forecasters

Daniel Paleka, Florian Tram\`er, Jonas Geiping, Shashwat Goel

arxiv:2506.00723 v1 · 2025-05-31 · cs.LG · cs.AI · cs.IR

Open paper page JSON Open Graph Bundle Merged state Verified badge What is a Pith Number?

Add to your LaTeX paper

\usepackage{pith}
\pithnumber{MYPJ2XRD4KO4IHKTCCTSNJLTCV}

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Record completeness

1 Bitcoin timestamp

2 Internet Archive

3 Author claim open · sign in to claim

4 Citations open

5 Replications open

✓ Portable graph bundle live · download bundle · merged state

The bundle contains the canonical record plus signed events. A mirror can host it anywhere and recompute the same current state with the deterministic merge algorithm.

Cited by

6 papers in Pith

Diverse Evidence, Better Forecasts: Multi-Agent Deliberation Under Information Asymmetry

Verifiable Rewards for Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting

Is Capability a Liability? More Capable Language Models Make Worse Forecasts When It Matters Most

OracleProto: A Reproducible Framework for Benchmarking LLM Native Forecasting via Knowledge Cutoff and Temporal Masking

Receipt and verification

First computed	2026-07-05T11:13:39.332781Z
Builder	pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1
Signature	Pith Ed25519 (`pith-v1-2026-05`) · public key
Schema	pith-number/v1.0

Canonical hash

661e9d5e23e29dc41d5310a726a573155e2dd740d72c2df6aafd78b70c84f536

Aliases

arxiv: 2506.00723 · arxiv_version: 2506.00723v1 · doi: 10.48550/arxiv.2506.00723 · pith_short_12: MYPJ2XRD4KO4 · pith_short_16: MYPJ2XRD4KO4IHKT · pith_short_8: MYPJ2XRD

Agent API

Resolver JSON Graph JSON Events JSON Schema Signing key

Verify this Pith Number yourself

curl -sH 'Accept: application/ld+json' https://pith.science/pith/MYPJ2XRD4KO4IHKTCCTSNJLTCV \
  | jq -c '.canonical_record' \
  | python3 -c "import sys,json,hashlib; b=json.dumps(json.loads(sys.stdin.read()), sort_keys=True, separators=(',',':'), ensure_ascii=False).encode(); print(hashlib.sha256(b).hexdigest())"
# expect: 661e9d5e23e29dc41d5310a726a573155e2dd740d72c2df6aafd78b70c84f536

Canonical record JSON

{
  "metadata": {
    "abstract_canon_sha256": "5a32d8c0c7fe159bf92f1b53d7ce54a5636b37ee112cc45d04d6dec78aba5376",
    "cross_cats_sorted": [
      "cs.AI",
      "cs.IR"
    ],
    "license": "http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
    "primary_cat": "cs.LG",
    "submitted_at": "2025-05-31T21:49:17Z",
    "title_canon_sha256": "86a65399116464c9bfc9be5edc183c391765db44113163997b9c57ee42b7647c"
  },
  "schema_version": "1.0",
  "source": {
    "id": "2506.00723",
    "kind": "arxiv",
    "version": 1
  }
}