Pith Number

pith:PAQSBNM6

pith:2026:PAQSBNM63LV376NUPCWBHS4ZCS

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Modeling Coincident Peak Pricing in Electricity Markets: Challenges and Peak Shaving Effectiveness

Conleigh Byers, Derya Cansever, Le Xie, Lucy Diao, Qian Zhang, Sadie Zhao, Yiling Chen

Fictitious-play dynamics in a game model of coincident peak pricing reliably reduce system peaks, while best-response dynamics can increase them under tight capacity.

arxiv:2605.16794 v1 · 2026-05-16 · eess.SY · cs.SY

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The bundle contains the canonical record plus signed events. A mirror can host it anywhere and recompute the same current state with the deterministic merge algorithm.

Claims

C1strongest claim

Using ERCOT peak-day data, we find that FPD reliably reduces system peaks, whereas BRD is more variable and can increase peaks under tight-capacity conditions.

C2weakest assumption

The framework assumes that real consumers will update their load-shifting decisions according to the modeled best-response or fictitious-play dynamics rather than other behavioral patterns.

C3one line summary

Simulations with a behavioral game-theoretic framework on ERCOT peak-day data show fictitious-play dynamics reduce peaks more reliably than best-response dynamics, with finer action resolution and careful signals improving outcomes.

References

27 extracted · 27 resolved · 0 Pith anchors

[1] Incentive properties of coincident peak pricing, 2018

[2] Manual M-20: ISO New England Manual for the Forward Capacity Market (FCM), Revision 27, 2023

[3] Priorities for the evolution of an energy-only electricity market design in ercot, 2017

[4] Demand responses in ercot, 2019

[5] Re- view Transmission Access Charge Structure: Revised Straw Proposal, 2018

Formal links

2 machine-checked theorem links

Receipt and verification

First computed	2026-05-20T00:03:22.437373Z
Builder	pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1
Signature	Pith Ed25519 (`pith-v1-2026-05`) · public key
Schema	pith-number/v1.0

Canonical hash

782120b59edaebbff9b478ac13cb99149ac8a45c301e660d9e6b4e6e4594bfa3

Aliases

arxiv: 2605.16794 · arxiv_version: 2605.16794v1 · doi: 10.48550/arxiv.2605.16794 · pith_short_12: PAQSBNM63LV3 · pith_short_16: PAQSBNM63LV376NU · pith_short_8: PAQSBNM6

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Verify this Pith Number yourself

curl -sH 'Accept: application/ld+json' https://pith.science/pith/PAQSBNM63LV376NUPCWBHS4ZCS \
  | jq -c '.canonical_record' \
  | python3 -c "import sys,json,hashlib; b=json.dumps(json.loads(sys.stdin.read()), sort_keys=True, separators=(',',':'), ensure_ascii=False).encode(); print(hashlib.sha256(b).hexdigest())"
# expect: 782120b59edaebbff9b478ac13cb99149ac8a45c301e660d9e6b4e6e4594bfa3

Canonical record JSON

{
  "metadata": {
    "abstract_canon_sha256": "26d425fc7c1f41738afefdd56743dc7e3d51f2d25a761f455259e19904ce5322",
    "cross_cats_sorted": [
      "cs.SY"
    ],
    "license": "http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
    "primary_cat": "eess.SY",
    "submitted_at": "2026-05-16T03:56:31Z",
    "title_canon_sha256": "a038a3dea0db283f6e8a0d95177a284ff13803f96e459e2e30957e6e0394bf38"
  },
  "schema_version": "1.0",
  "source": {
    "id": "2605.16794",
    "kind": "arxiv",
    "version": 1
  }
}