Pith Number

pith:QFBJOMHF

pith:2026:QFBJOMHFBUS4KONBCA4GU5PNNA

not attested not anchored not stored refs resolved

The role of the oceans for subseasonal prediction: insights from eddy-permitting and eddy-rich coupled forecast systems

Charles Pelletier, Christopher David Roberts, Hao Zuo, Kristian Mogensen, Sarah Keeley

Ocean-atmosphere coupling substantially improves tropical subseasonal forecasts and extends Madden-Julian Oscillation skill by about five days.

arxiv:2605.00621 v1 · 2026-05-01 · physics.ao-ph

Open paper page JSON Open Graph Bundle Merged state Verified badge What is a Pith Number?

Add to your LaTeX paper

\usepackage{pith}
\pithnumber{QFBJOMHFBUS4KONBCA4GU5PNNA}

Prints a linked badge after your title and injects PDF metadata. Compiles on arXiv. Learn more · Embed verified badge

Record completeness

1 Bitcoin timestamp

2 Internet Archive

3 Author claim open · sign in to claim

4 Citations open

5 Replications open

✓ Portable graph bundle live · download bundle · merged state

The bundle contains the canonical record plus signed events. A mirror can host it anywhere and recompute the same current state with the deterministic merge algorithm.

Claims

C1strongest claim

We find that ocean-atmosphere coupling significantly enhances ensemble forecast skill in the tropics, with positive effects increasing at longer lead times. In particular, Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) forecasts are substantially improved, with forecast skill extended by approximately 5 days compared to the uncoupled configuration.

C2weakest assumption

That differences between the coupled, uncoupled, and eddy-rich configurations can be attributed primarily to the ocean-atmosphere coupling and resolution changes rather than to differences in model tuning, bias correction, or initial condition quality.

C3one line summary

Ocean-atmosphere coupling improves tropical subseasonal forecast skill and extends MJO predictability by about five days, while an eddy-rich ocean configuration shows limited additional benefit at these lead times.

References

98 extracted · 5 resolved · 0 Pith anchors

[1] Heat stored in the 2023

[2] Zuo, Hao and Balmaseda, Magdalena Alonso and de Boisseson, E and Browne, P and Chrust, Marcin and Keeley, S and Mogensen, K and Pelletier, C and de Rosnay, P and Takakura, T , journal=

[3] Dynamic sea ice in the

[4] Algorithm theoretical basis document for the

[5] Zuo, Hao and Balmaseda, Magdalena Alonso and Tietsche, Steffen and Mogensen, Kristian and Mayer, Michael , journal=. The. 2019 , publisher= 2019

Receipt and verification

First computed	2026-05-20T00:05:45.707822Z
Builder	pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1
Signature	Pith Ed25519 (`pith-v1-2026-05`) · public key
Schema	pith-number/v1.0

Canonical hash

81429730e50d25c539a110386a75ed6837fe7de54a6efdb58d99cefb5912e0fd

Aliases

arxiv: 2605.00621 · arxiv_version: 2605.00621v1 · doi: 10.48550/arxiv.2605.00621 · pith_short_12: QFBJOMHFBUS4 · pith_short_16: QFBJOMHFBUS4KONB · pith_short_8: QFBJOMHF

Agent API

Resolver JSON Graph JSON Events JSON Schema Signing key

Verify this Pith Number yourself

curl -sH 'Accept: application/ld+json' https://pith.science/pith/QFBJOMHFBUS4KONBCA4GU5PNNA \
  | jq -c '.canonical_record' \
  | python3 -c "import sys,json,hashlib; b=json.dumps(json.loads(sys.stdin.read()), sort_keys=True, separators=(',',':'), ensure_ascii=False).encode(); print(hashlib.sha256(b).hexdigest())"
# expect: 81429730e50d25c539a110386a75ed6837fe7de54a6efdb58d99cefb5912e0fd

Canonical record JSON

{
  "metadata": {
    "abstract_canon_sha256": "8a00ecd02d42d81ce5abd639637a1ccb218ef37882c2d5512a50f0ff3a32df5f",
    "cross_cats_sorted": [],
    "license": "http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
    "primary_cat": "physics.ao-ph",
    "submitted_at": "2026-05-01T12:42:46Z",
    "title_canon_sha256": "d01b0ba215b45c483e0645654a97627f2501bfc8f57b0b997e5efc12d67db4b1"
  },
  "schema_version": "1.0",
  "source": {
    "id": "2605.00621",
    "kind": "arxiv",
    "version": 1
  }
}