Pith Number

pith:QUKFUSWE

pith:2026:QUKFUSWEV35F6WNJTNSQ47F5PD

not attested not anchored not stored refs pending

Simulated LSST Observations of Real Metre-scale Imminent Impactors

Hadrien A. R. Devillepoix, Michael A. Frazer, Sophie E. Deam

LSST simulations with real fireballs predict eight imminent impactors discovered four days before impact over a 10-year survey.

arxiv:2602.06314 v2 · 2026-02-06 · astro-ph.EP · astro-ph.IM

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\pithnumber{QUKFUSWEV35F6WNJTNSQ47F5PD}

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Record completeness

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3 Author claim open · sign in to claim

4 Citations open

5 Replications open

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The bundle contains the canonical record plus signed events. A mirror can host it anywhere and recompute the same current state with the deterministic merge algorithm.

Claims

C1strongest claim

We predict that the LSST will discover 8 +/- 2 imminent impactors over its nominal 10 year survey, at the low end of previous estimations. However, we predict these objects to be discovered 4 days pre-impact, substantially earlier than the current average.

C2weakest assumption

That the sample of 216 real fireballs from the last decade is representative of the metre-scale impactor population LSST will encounter, and that the modified linking algorithm will perform as modeled for fast-moving objects without significant false positives or misses.

C3one line summary

Simulations of real past impactors predict LSST will discover 8 +/- 2 imminent impactors over 10 years at 4 days pre-impact on average, lower rate but earlier than prior estimates.

Receipt and verification

First computed	2026-05-20T14:03:24.973807Z
Builder	pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1
Signature	Pith Ed25519 (`pith-v1-2026-05`) · public key
Schema	pith-number/v1.0

Canonical hash

85145a4ac4aefa5f59a99b650e7cbd78c321f636f31ba37b96b418a4ab37da62

Aliases

arxiv: 2602.06314 · arxiv_version: 2602.06314v2 · doi: 10.48550/arxiv.2602.06314 · pith_short_12: QUKFUSWEV35F · pith_short_16: QUKFUSWEV35F6WNJ · pith_short_8: QUKFUSWE

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Verify this Pith Number yourself

curl -sH 'Accept: application/ld+json' https://pith.science/pith/QUKFUSWEV35F6WNJTNSQ47F5PD \
  | jq -c '.canonical_record' \
  | python3 -c "import sys,json,hashlib; b=json.dumps(json.loads(sys.stdin.read()), sort_keys=True, separators=(',',':'), ensure_ascii=False).encode(); print(hashlib.sha256(b).hexdigest())"
# expect: 85145a4ac4aefa5f59a99b650e7cbd78c321f636f31ba37b96b418a4ab37da62

Canonical record JSON

{
  "metadata": {
    "abstract_canon_sha256": "7e52000f55286928f9a2e9a40a2a2680b9454d31dc470a659bcd026f25f08144",
    "cross_cats_sorted": [
      "astro-ph.IM"
    ],
    "license": "http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
    "primary_cat": "astro-ph.EP",
    "submitted_at": "2026-02-06T02:19:47Z",
    "title_canon_sha256": "06a8fe481448ac5db2b3dbad136c7121423b31c0f39e866495e83646932d2e7e"
  },
  "schema_version": "1.0",
  "source": {
    "id": "2602.06314",
    "kind": "arxiv",
    "version": 2
  }
}