Pith Number

pith:S5JXIVWS

pith:2026:S5JXIVWSNOBHR6KKLIN7TZQOZL

not attested not anchored not stored refs pending

When Certainty Is Not Worth It: Capital Lock-Up and Settlement Discounting in Prediction Markets

Florian Matthes, Jonas Gebele

arxiv:2605.31431 v1 · 2026-05-29 · cs.CE

Open paper page JSON Open Graph Bundle Merged state Verified badge What is a Pith Number?

Add to your LaTeX paper

\usepackage{pith}
\pithnumber{S5JXIVWSNOBHR6KKLIN7TZQOZL}

Prints a linked badge after your title and injects PDF metadata. Compiles on arXiv. Learn more · Embed verified badge

Record completeness

1 Bitcoin timestamp

2 Internet Archive

3 Author claim open · sign in to claim

4 Citations open

5 Replications open

✓ Portable graph bundle live · download bundle · merged state

The bundle contains the canonical record plus signed events. A mirror can host it anywhere and recompute the same current state with the deterministic merge algorithm.

Receipt and verification

First computed	2026-06-01T02:04:05.409405Z
Builder	pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1
Signature	Pith Ed25519 (`pith-v1-2026-05`) · public key
Schema	pith-number/v1.0

Canonical hash

97537456d26b8278f94a5a1bf9e60ecaef7005294b2e7177391e289ef55b9325

Aliases

arxiv: 2605.31431 · arxiv_version: 2605.31431v1 · doi: 10.48550/arxiv.2605.31431 · pith_short_12: S5JXIVWSNOBH · pith_short_16: S5JXIVWSNOBHR6KK · pith_short_8: S5JXIVWS

Agent API

Resolver JSON Graph JSON Events JSON Schema Signing key

Verify this Pith Number yourself

curl -sH 'Accept: application/ld+json' https://pith.science/pith/S5JXIVWSNOBHR6KKLIN7TZQOZL \
  | jq -c '.canonical_record' \
  | python3 -c "import sys,json,hashlib; b=json.dumps(json.loads(sys.stdin.read()), sort_keys=True, separators=(',',':'), ensure_ascii=False).encode(); print(hashlib.sha256(b).hexdigest())"
# expect: 97537456d26b8278f94a5a1bf9e60ecaef7005294b2e7177391e289ef55b9325

Canonical record JSON

{
  "metadata": {
    "abstract_canon_sha256": "1f9643100584fdbec7c032aa8f4e63a73cfc8881b7b39707bfa4840780a569c5",
    "cross_cats_sorted": [],
    "license": "http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/",
    "primary_cat": "cs.CE",
    "submitted_at": "2026-05-29T15:27:12Z",
    "title_canon_sha256": "967afa57a7a2c47808612d95352818a0cb78cb64818702bed36ee93ec1a138cc"
  },
  "schema_version": "1.0",
  "source": {
    "id": "2605.31431",
    "kind": "arxiv",
    "version": 1
  }
}