Pith Number

pith:XH2I5WFO

pith:2026:XH2I5WFOPY3LU2FKDJU6NP5Y2S

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Fill-Side Behavioral Concentration on Polymarket: Identification Limits under Record-Level Attribution

Maksym Nechepurenko

Polymarket's non-retail trading exhibits uni-modal fill-side behavior, allowing tier-based separation of dominant participants.

arxiv:2605.11640 v2 · 2026-05-12 · q-fin.TR · cs.CY · q-fin.CP

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\pithnumber{XH2I5WFOPY3LU2FKDJU6NP5Y2S}

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4 Citations open

5 Replications open

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The bundle contains the canonical record plus signed events. A mirror can host it anywhere and recompute the same current state with the deterministic merge algorithm.

Claims

C1strongest claim

density-based clustering (DBSCAN, fifteen sensitivity configurations) on the fill-side vector produces a single dense cluster with zero noise: fill-side behavior in the empirical window is uni-modal under the six-feature vector, contradicting the pre-registered hypothesis of four-to-five separable archetypes. ... whale-tier, high-frequency-operator, and power-trader tiers jointly hold 81.4% of total notional across 12.6% of addresses.

C2weakest assumption

The six-feature fill-side vector remains sufficient to identify meaningful behavioral tiers and retail/non-retail separation after the G-QUOTE-LIFE failure removes quote-lifecycle information.

C3one line summary

Polymarket fill-side trading appears uni-modal due to missing quote-lifecycle data, with whale, high-frequency, and power-trader tiers dominating 81.4% of notional across 12.6% of addresses.

Cited by

1 paper in Pith

Axient: Debt-Free Finality for Leveraged Binary Event Markets

Receipt and verification

First computed	2026-07-31T01:11:45.518273Z
Builder	pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1
Signature	unsigned_v0
Schema	pith-number/v1.0

Canonical hash

b9f48ed8ae7e36ba68aa1a69e6bfb8d487ac0ea8b17af6df4eba5d099c234040

Aliases

arxiv: 2605.11640 · arxiv_version: 2605.11640v2 · doi: 10.48550/arxiv.2605.11640 · pith_short_12: XH2I5WFOPY3L · pith_short_16: XH2I5WFOPY3LU2FK · pith_short_8: XH2I5WFO

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Verify this Pith Number yourself

curl -sH 'Accept: application/ld+json' https://pith.science/pith/XH2I5WFOPY3LU2FKDJU6NP5Y2S \
  | jq -c '.canonical_record' \
  | python3 -c "import sys,json,hashlib; b=json.dumps(json.loads(sys.stdin.read()), sort_keys=True, separators=(',',':'), ensure_ascii=False).encode(); print(hashlib.sha256(b).hexdigest())"
# expect: b9f48ed8ae7e36ba68aa1a69e6bfb8d487ac0ea8b17af6df4eba5d099c234040

Canonical record JSON

{
  "metadata": {
    "abstract_canon_sha256": "d026365d0c9e173da78800eded09bc439e76ccd11334bcc657cedb091743045f",
    "cross_cats_sorted": [
      "cs.CY",
      "q-fin.CP"
    ],
    "license": "http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
    "primary_cat": "q-fin.TR",
    "submitted_at": "2026-05-12T07:01:35Z",
    "title_canon_sha256": "aba3c67a117aed94bafc241a1f14a78da3f1f20ca8f890cb8b860fde6c5e6383"
  },
  "schema_version": "1.0",
  "source": {
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    "kind": "arxiv",
    "version": 2
  }
}