Bayesian reconstruction and exhaustive symbolic regression on CMB, BAO, and supernova data yield the one-parameter dark energy parametrization w(a) = w0 / sqrt(a) that fits observations comparably to CPL and better than LambdaCDM.
Bayesian model selection without evidences: application to the dark energy equation-of-state
3 Pith papers cite this work. Polarity classification is still indexing.
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abstract
A method is presented for Bayesian model selection without explicitly computing evidences, by using a combined likelihood and introducing an integer model selection parameter $n$ so that Bayes factors, or more generally posterior odds ratios, may be read off directly from the posterior of $n$. If the total number of models under consideration is specified a priori, the full joint parameter space $(\theta, n)$ of the models is of fixed dimensionality and can be explored using standard Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) or nested sampling methods, without the need for reversible jump MCMC techniques. The posterior on $n$ is then obtained by straightforward marginalisation. We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach by application to several toy models. We then apply it to constraining the dark energy equation-of-state using a free-form reconstruction technique. We show that $\Lambda$CDM is significantly favoured over all extensions, including the simple $w(z){=}{\rm constant}$ model.
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Customized chromatic noise models for 67 pulsars detect non-dispersive delays in 21 cases, alter achromatic noise inferences in 19, and enable solar wind density estimates over 1.5 cycles.
Customized chromatic noise models applied to NANOGrav 15 yr data raise the Bayes factor for Hellings-Downs GWB correlations by a factor of ~8, lower the amplitude to 2.1e-15, and increase the spectral index to 3.5.
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Data-Driven Discovery of a Simple Phantom-Crossing Dark Energy Parametrization
Bayesian reconstruction and exhaustive symbolic regression on CMB, BAO, and supernova data yield the one-parameter dark energy parametrization w(a) = w0 / sqrt(a) that fits observations comparably to CPL and better than LambdaCDM.
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The NANOGrav 15 yr Data Set: Customized Chromatic Noise Models
Customized chromatic noise models for 67 pulsars detect non-dispersive delays in 21 cases, alter achromatic noise inferences in 19, and enable solar wind density estimates over 1.5 cycles.
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The NANOGrav 15 yr Data Set: Impacts of Customized Chromatic Noise Models on Gravitational Wave Analyses
Customized chromatic noise models applied to NANOGrav 15 yr data raise the Bayes factor for Hellings-Downs GWB correlations by a factor of ~8, lower the amplitude to 2.1e-15, and increase the spectral index to 3.5.