New simulations show that cross-correlating gravitational wave background anisotropies with galaxy distributions can enable discovery at angular scales of 4-6 degrees with next-generation observatories.
Stochastic gravitational-wave background search using data from five pulsar timing arrays
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abstract
Using public pulse time-of-arrival data from five pulsar timing arrays (PTAs), we search for a stationary, isotropic, and unpolarized nHz stochastic gravitational-wave background (SGWB). This analysis is more sensitive than previous individual PTA searches because the combined 121-pulsar dataset is about four times larger than any single PTA's. For pulsars observed by multiple PTAs, we employ a new "direct combination" method to merge their astrophysical models and data. This avoids the challenge of reconciling different PTA timing models to obtain a single "best" model. A central result of our analysis is the posterior distribution of the amplitude $A_{gw}$ and exponent $\gamma_{gw}$ of the putative SGWB energy-density spectrum, modeled as a power law in frequency. While these results are consistent with a nonzero SGWB amplitude $A_{gw}$, the statistical significance-assessed via a Bayesian odds ratio and noise-marginalized false-alarm probabilities ($p$-values) for three detection statistics-remains below the conventional $5\sigma$ threshold for a confident detection. The inter-pulsar timing-residual correlation, reconstructed as a function of angle $\theta$ between the pulsar lines of sight, matches the Hellings and Downs (HD) prediction.
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The BB plot is a new diagnostic that links Bayes factors to their expected distributions under competing hypotheses, enabling validation of calculations and low-cost background estimation for model selection in GW studies.
Analytical solutions to Langevin equations for red noise and GWB in pulsars show that an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck spin frequency model is inconsistent with stationary signals, while an overdamped oscillator model and a two-component neutron star model resolve nonstationarity through damped and diffusive e
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Prospects for multi-messenger discovery of the gravitational-wave background anisotropies via cross-correlation with galaxies
New simulations show that cross-correlating gravitational wave background anisotropies with galaxy distributions can enable discovery at angular scales of 4-6 degrees with next-generation observatories.
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BB plot: A Tool for Accurate Model Selection Using Bayes factors
The BB plot is a new diagnostic that links Bayes factors to their expected distributions under competing hypotheses, enabling validation of calculations and low-cost background estimation for model selection in GW studies.
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Stochastic problems in pulsar timing
Analytical solutions to Langevin equations for red noise and GWB in pulsars show that an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck spin frequency model is inconsistent with stationary signals, while an overdamped oscillator model and a two-component neutron star model resolve nonstationarity through damped and diffusive e