LLMs struggle to associate epistemic markers with stable internal confidence levels across distributions, even under model-centric interpretations, while maintaining somewhat consistent marker rankings.
A survey of uncertainty estimation methods on large language models
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This paper introduces a systems-level conceptual framing and a three-level taxonomy (intra-model, system-level, socio-technical) for uncertainty propagation in compound LLM applications, along with engineering insights and open challenges.
RLMF uses quality of model self-judgments to refine RL rankings and select training data, achieving SOTA faithful calibration while preserving accuracy and outperforming standard RL by up to 63%.
LLM OOD detectors are length-confounded; a two-pathway embedding-plus-trajectory framework detects covert OOD inputs at 0.721 average AUROC and 0.850 on jailbreaks.
Cross-model semantic disagreement adds an epistemic uncertainty term that improves total uncertainty estimation over self-consistency alone, helping flag confident errors in LLMs.
KnowSA_CKP uses comparative knowledge probing to selectively augment LLM prompts for items with knowledge gaps, improving recommendation accuracy and context efficiency.
citing papers explorer
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Can LLMs Use Linguistic Uncertainty Markers to Reliably Reflect Intrinsic Confidence?
LLMs struggle to associate epistemic markers with stable internal confidence levels across distributions, even under model-centric interpretations, while maintaining somewhat consistent marker rankings.
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Uncertainty Propagation in LLM-Based Systems
This paper introduces a systems-level conceptual framing and a three-level taxonomy (intra-model, system-level, socio-technical) for uncertainty propagation in compound LLM applications, along with engineering insights and open challenges.
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Reinforcement Learning with Metacognitive Feedback Elicits Faithful Uncertainty Expression in LLMs
RLMF uses quality of model self-judgments to refine RL rankings and select training data, achieving SOTA faithful calibration while preserving accuracy and outperforming standard RL by up to 63%.
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How Language Models Process Out-of-Distribution Inputs: A Two-Pathway Framework
LLM OOD detectors are length-confounded; a two-pathway embedding-plus-trajectory framework detects covert OOD inputs at 0.721 average AUROC and 0.850 on jailbreaks.
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Complementing Self-Consistency with Cross-Model Disagreement for Uncertainty Quantification
Cross-model semantic disagreement adds an epistemic uncertainty term that improves total uncertainty estimation over self-consistency alone, helping flag confident errors in LLMs.
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Filling the Gaps: Selective Knowledge Augmentation for LLM Recommenders
KnowSA_CKP uses comparative knowledge probing to selectively augment LLM prompts for items with knowledge gaps, improving recommendation accuracy and context efficiency.