A new collaborative hub for nowcasting SARS-CoV-2 variant frequencies at US state level was built and tested; a simple national pooling baseline performed as well as or better than individual models during October 2024–June 2025.
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Holmes, ´Aine O’Toole, Verity Hill, John T
2 Pith papers cite this work, alongside 3,006 external citations. Polarity classification is still indexing.
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Hierarchical multinomial logistic regression models outperform a baseline in probabilistic and point accuracy for SARS-CoV-2 variant nowcasts and forecasts, performing best in high-data locations.
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Collaborative estimation and evaluation of SARS-CoV-2 variant nowcasting in the United States
A new collaborative hub for nowcasting SARS-CoV-2 variant frequencies at US state level was built and tested; a simple national pooling baseline performed as well as or better than individual models during October 2024–June 2025.
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Comparison of probabilistic nowcasts and forecasts of SARS-CoV-2 variant proportions made by hierarchical multinomial linear regression models
Hierarchical multinomial logistic regression models outperform a baseline in probabilistic and point accuracy for SARS-CoV-2 variant nowcasts and forecasts, performing best in high-data locations.