Behavioral profiles from prediction-market traders are partially stable and identifiable but cannot be transmitted via prompts to reduce LLM forecast correlations or improve Brier scores.
Decoding the human factor: High fidelity behavioral prediction for strategic foresight.arXiv preprint arXiv:2602.17222, 2026
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Nous: An Attempt to Extract and Inject the Cognition Behind Prediction-Market Behavior
Behavioral profiles from prediction-market traders are partially stable and identifiable but cannot be transmitted via prompts to reduce LLM forecast correlations or improve Brier scores.