A meta-analysis of 1490 BBH merger rate predictions from 57 studies shows substantial subsets reproduce or underestimate the observed rate, indicating that apparent crises are model-dependent rather than universal.
The cosmic merger rate of stellar black hole binaries from the Illustris simulation
9 Pith papers cite this work. Polarity classification is still indexing.
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abstract
The cosmic merger rate density of black hole binaries (BHBs) can give us an essential clue to constraining the formation channels of BHBs, in light of current and forthcoming gravitational wave detections. Following a Monte Carlo approach, we couple new population-synthesis models of BHBs with the Illustris cosmological simulation, to study the cosmic history of BHB mergers. We explore six population-synthesis models, varying the prescriptions for supernovae, common envelope, and natal kicks. In most considered models, the cosmic BHB merger rate follows the same trend as the cosmic star formation rate. The normalization of the cosmic BHB merger rate strongly depends on the treatment of common envelope and on the distribution of natal kicks. We find that most BHBs merging within LIGO's instrumental horizon come from relatively metal-poor progenitors (<0.2 Zsun). The total masses of merging BHBs span a large range of values, from ~6 to ~82 Msun. In our fiducial model, merging BHBs consistent with GW150914, GW151226 and GW170104 represent ~6, 3, and 12 per cent of all BHBs merging within the LIGO horizon, respectively. The heavy systems, like GW150914, come from metal-poor progenitors (<0.15 Zsun). Most GW150914-like systems merging in the local Universe appear to have formed at high redshift, with a long delay time. In contrast, GW151226-like systems form and merge all the way through the cosmic history, from progenitors with a broad range of metallicities. Future detections will be crucial to put constraints on common envelope, on natal kicks, and on the BHB mass function.
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representative citing papers
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Bayesian inference on LVK O1-O3 events with eccentric aligned-spin waveforms yields log10 Bayes factors of 1.77-4.75 favoring eccentricity for GW200129, GW190701 and GW200208_22, and >99.5% probability that at least one of 57 events is eccentric under an astrophysically motivated rate prior.
An isolated hierarchical triple channel with chemically homogeneous evolution and triple common envelope can produce PISN mass-gap BBH mergers matching GW190706 at ~22% of the observed rate.
Simulations show LIGO-A# constrains the peak redshift of binary black hole merger rate (tracing star formation) to ±0.1 in one year, improving to ±0.02 with next-generation detectors.
Forecasts show SKA-Mid cross-correlations with ET/CE gravitational wave events can constrain GW source bias and time-delay distributions.
Theoretical predictions for local BBH merger rates exceed observations by a factor >10 under conservative SFRD and metallicity assumptions, indicating need for revisions in stellar evolution.
The paper evaluates how triangular versus two-L-shaped geometries, arm lengths, and presence of low-frequency instruments affect the science reach of the Einstein Telescope for compact binaries, multi-messenger events, and stochastic backgrounds.
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Lower Your Rates: On Claims of a Binary Black Hole Merger-Rate Crisis
A meta-analysis of 1490 BBH merger rate predictions from 57 studies shows substantial subsets reproduce or underestimate the observed rate, indicating that apparent crises are model-dependent rather than universal.
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Constraints on Line-of-Sight Acceleration from O1-O4
All gravitational-wave binaries analyzed through O4a are consistent with zero line-of-sight acceleration, measured with a new time-domain Doppler method applicable to any waveform model.
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Massquerade: Impacts of Mass Ratio Reversals on Binary Black Hole Merger Rates and Mass Distributions
Mass ratio reversals produce qualitatively different contributions to BBH merger rates and masses in COMPAS versus SEVN simulations, with core-growth dominating and most systems arising from massive low-metallicity progenitors.
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Evidence for eccentricity in the population of binary black holes observed by LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA
Bayesian inference on LVK O1-O3 events with eccentric aligned-spin waveforms yields log10 Bayes factors of 1.77-4.75 favoring eccentricity for GW200129, GW190701 and GW200208_22, and >99.5% probability that at least one of 57 events is eccentric under an astrophysically motivated rate prior.
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A Possible Triple Formation Scenario of Binary Black Hole Merge With One In Pair-instability Supernova Mass Gap
An isolated hierarchical triple channel with chemically homogeneous evolution and triple common envelope can produce PISN mass-gap BBH mergers matching GW190706 at ~22% of the observed rate.
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Theoretical predictions for local BBH merger rates exceed observations by a factor >10 under conservative SFRD and metallicity assumptions, indicating need for revisions in stellar evolution.
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