A logistic credibility model with data-driven temporal decay restores calibration slope to 1.00 and reduces exposure-weighted error by 38% versus standard Bühlmann-Straub on US commercial auto held-out data.
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Practical Bayesian model evaluation using leave-one-out cross-validation and WAIC
14 Pith papers cite this work, alongside 5,394 external citations. Polarity classification is still indexing.
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Predictively consistent priors let complex Bayesian models match or beat the out-of-sample performance of selected simpler models across linear, logistic, and nonlinear examples without explicit selection.
CPP defines a distributional conformity score from leave-one-out vs swapped Bayesian predictives and yields a bounded-influence point predictor that asymptotically dominates unbounded plug-in predictors under ε-contamination.
A Bayesian model for multi-feature contact matrices that uses tensor structures and contingency table theory to satisfy structural constraints and impute missing contact features, validated on simulations and US/German survey data.
A binning-based Bayesian ROPE equivalence testing method is introduced to quantitatively assess practical equivalence between synthetic and real pre-crash scenario datasets for driving automation safety impact evaluation.
Multilevel regression and poststratification corrects socioeconomic sampling bias in CDR mobility estimates, lowering average radius of gyration by 17 percent.
Two hybrid Bayesian surrogate training approaches integrate simulation and real-world data via a weighting strategy independent of surrogate family, shown in synthetic and real case studies to improve accuracy and diagnose simulation issues.
Hierarchical Bayesian and ML analysis of magnetar observables finds no statistically significant need for a distinct white-dwarf magnetar population.
Eye-tracking experiment finds that labeling code as LLM-generated increases fixation time without changing review thoroughness, with reviewers adapting criteria or using the prompt.
A Bayesian mixed Hawkes process with Weibull baseline intensity and random effects is developed to model seizure clustering and heterogeneity in focal epilepsy from the Human Epilepsy Project data.
SPICE is a scalable Bayesian MCMC engine for explanatory IRT calibration on sparsely linked persons and items in large assessment banks.
Bayesian-ARGOS is a hybrid frequentist-Bayesian method that discovers equations from limited noisy observations more efficiently than SINDy or bootstrap-ARGOS while adding uncertainty quantification.
Environment-conditioned parametric regression on 12-month indoor LoRaWAN data reduces cross-validated RMSE from 8.23 dB to 7.38 dB and lowers the fade margin needed for 99% reliability from ~28 dB to 25.73 dB.
citing papers explorer
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Logistic Credibility with Temporal Decay: Extending B\"uhlmann--Straub for Commercial Lines
A logistic credibility model with data-driven temporal decay restores calibration slope to 1.00 and reduces exposure-weighted error by 38% versus standard Bühlmann-Straub on US commercial auto held-out data.
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To select or not to select: predictively consistent priors instead of model selection
Predictively consistent priors let complex Bayesian models match or beat the out-of-sample performance of selected simpler models across linear, logistic, and nonlinear examples without explicit selection.
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Conformity-Based Bayesian Projective Prediction
CPP defines a distributional conformity score from leave-one-out vs swapped Bayesian predictives and yields a bounded-influence point predictor that asymptotically dominates unbounded plug-in predictors under ε-contamination.
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Bayesian Modeling and Prediction of Generalized Contact Matrices
A Bayesian model for multi-feature contact matrices that uses tensor structures and contingency table theory to satisfy structural constraints and impute missing contact features, validated on simulations and US/German survey data.
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Practical validation of synthetic pre-crash scenarios
A binning-based Bayesian ROPE equivalence testing method is introduced to quantitatively assess practical equivalence between synthetic and real pre-crash scenario datasets for driving automation safety impact evaluation.
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Correcting socioeconomic bias in mobile phone mobility estimates using multilevel regression and poststratification
Multilevel regression and poststratification corrects socioeconomic sampling bias in CDR mobility estimates, lowering average radius of gyration by 17 percent.
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Bayesian Surrogate Training on Multiple Data Sources: A Hybrid Modeling Strategy
Two hybrid Bayesian surrogate training approaches integrate simulation and real-world data via a weighting strategy independent of surrogate family, shown in synthetic and real case studies to improve accuracy and diagnose simulation issues.
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Data-Driven Constraints on Magnetar Population: No Evidence for a Distinct White Dwarf Channel
Hierarchical Bayesian and ML analysis of magnetar observables finds no statistically significant need for a distinct white-dwarf magnetar population.
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Same Scrutiny, More Time: Eye Tracking Insights into Reviewing LLM-Labelled Code
Eye-tracking experiment finds that labeling code as LLM-generated increases fixation time without changing review thoroughness, with reviewers adapting criteria or using the prompt.
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A Mixed Self-Exciting Process to Model Epileptic Seizures
A Bayesian mixed Hawkes process with Weibull baseline intensity and random effects is developed to model seizure clustering and heterogeneity in focal epilepsy from the Human Epilepsy Project data.
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A Scalable Parametric Item Calibration Engine (SPICE) for Explanatory IRT with Sparse Data
SPICE is a scalable Bayesian MCMC engine for explanatory IRT calibration on sparsely linked persons and items in large assessment banks.
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Fast and principled equation discovery from chaos to climate
Bayesian-ARGOS is a hybrid frequentist-Bayesian method that discovers equations from limited noisy observations more efficiently than SINDy or bootstrap-ARGOS while adding uncertainty quantification.
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Environment-Aware Indoor LoRaWAN Path Loss: Parametric Regression Comparisons, Shadow Fading, and Calibrated Fade Margins
Environment-conditioned parametric regression on 12-month indoor LoRaWAN data reduces cross-validated RMSE from 8.23 dB to 7.38 dB and lowers the fade margin needed for 99% reliability from ~28 dB to 25.73 dB.
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