Pseudo double-source plane lenses enable statistical strong lensing tomography that forecasts σ(w0) ~ 0.45 from the LSST 10-year photometric sample in flat w0waCDM cosmology.
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Dynamical dark energy in light of the latest observations
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abstract
A flat Friedman-Roberson-Walker universe dominated by a cosmological constant ($\Lambda$) and cold dark matter (CDM) has been the working model preferred by cosmologists since the discovery of cosmic acceleration. However, tensions of various degrees of significance are known to be present among existing datasets within the $\Lambda$CDM framework. In particular, the Lyman-$\alpha$ forest measurement of the Baryon Acoustic Oscillations (BAO) by the Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (BOSS) prefers a smaller value of the matter density fraction $\Omega_{\rm M}$ compared to the value preferred by cosmic microwave background (CMB). Also, the recently measured value of the Hubble constant, $H_0=73.24\pm1.74 \ {\rm km}\ {\rm s}^{-1} \ {\rm Mpc}^{-1}$, is $3.4\sigma$ higher than $66.93\pm0.62 \ {\rm km}\ {\rm s}^{-1} \ {\rm Mpc}^{-1}$ inferred from the Planck CMB data. In this work, we investigate if these tensions can be interpreted as evidence for a non-constant dynamical dark energy (DE). Using the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence to quantify the tension between datasets, we find that the tensions are relieved by an evolving DE, with the dynamical DE model preferred at a $3.5\sigma$ significance level based on the improvement in the fit alone. While, at present, the Bayesian evidence for the dynamical DE is insufficient to favour it over $\Lambda$CDM, we show that, if the current best fit DE happened to be the true model, it would be decisively detected by the upcoming DESI survey.
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Under standard recombination, phantom-crossing dynamical dark energy is preferred at ~97–98.5% probability; early-time fixes to the Hubble tension erase that preference while creating severe ω_m tension with CMB.
A sign-switching dark energy model (Λ_s CDM) recovers positive effective neutrino masses (0.055 ± 0.050 eV) consistent with oscillation data, unlike ΛCDM which prefers negative values (-0.075 eV), for DESI DR2 + CMB + supernova fits with z_† > 2.4.
Latent-f and latent-H Gaussian process reconstructions from OHD data both yield f(z), w(z), and Om(z) consistent with Lambda-CDM, with no strong predictive preference and small prior-dependent residuals mainly at high redshift.
Galaxy cluster observations yield two preferred directions with cosmic anisotropy amplitude of about 5.3 times 10 to the minus 4 at roughly 1 sigma overall significance, though higher in the XMM-Newton subsample.
Node-based reconstruction of cosmic expansion prefers stronger deceleration at z≈1.7 than smooth DE EoS parametrizations, isolating z~1.5-2 as a window where the latter may compress localized kinematic features permitted by current data.
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DESI DR2 BAO combined with Pantheon+, DES-Dovekie and Union3 supernovae yields 1.1-2.3 sigma preference for Quintom-B type evolving dark energy (w0 > -1, wa < 0) with phantom crossing near z ~ 0.5, but no model reaches robust statistical significance.
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