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arxiv: 2605.21456 · v1 · pith:SUGA6AKNnew · submitted 2026-05-20 · 🌌 astro-ph.CO

Negative neutrino mass or negative dark energy?

Cihad K{\i}br{\i}s , Willem Elbers , \"Ozg\"ur Akarsu , Eleonora Di Valentino This is my paper

Pith reviewed 2026-05-21 02:58 UTC · model grok-4.3

classification 🌌 astro-ph.CO
keywords neutrino mass tensionsign-switching dark energyDESI BAOeffective neutrino masscosmological expansionCMB lensingdark energy transition
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The pith

A sign-switching dark energy model restores positive effective neutrino masses in fits to DESI and CMB data.

A machine-rendered reading of the paper's core claim, the machinery that carries it, and where it could break.

Recent cosmological data from DESI and the cosmic microwave background imply a negative sum of neutrino masses when the standard model with constant dark energy is assumed, creating tension with particle physics experiments. This paper tests alternative dark energy scenarios that can produce negative energy density at some times to see if they can reproduce the same observational effects without negative neutrinos. Among the options, the sign-switching cosmological constant model stands out because it changes the cosmic expansion rate over a redshift range that influences CMB lensing while still matching baryon acoustic oscillation distances at lower redshifts. When this model is used with DESI DR2 BAO, CMB, and supernova data, the effective neutrino mass sum shifts from negative to a positive central value of 0.055 electronvolts. A reader would care because the result points to a specific structure in the late-time expansion history as a possible resolution rather than new neutrino physics.

Core claim

For the combination of DESI DR2 BAO, CMB, and DES-Dovekie supernova data, the constraint on the effective neutrino mass shifts from a negative value in standard Lambda CDM to a positive value of 0.055 plus or minus 0.050 eV at 68 percent in the sign-switching Lambda_s CDM model, together with a 95 percent lower bound on the dark energy transition redshift above 2.4.

What carries the argument

The sign-switching cosmological constant Lambda_s CDM, which allows the dark energy density to change sign at a transition redshift and thereby modifies the expansion history in the range relevant for CMB lensing.

If this is right

  • The apparent tension with the minimum neutrino mass from oscillation experiments is removed.
  • The expansion history receives a targeted adjustment at redshifts that affect CMB lensing but preserve BAO matches at lower redshifts.
  • Only the sign-switching model among those tested recovers positive effective neutrino masses.
  • The transition redshift must exceed 2.4 at 95 percent .

Where Pith is reading between the lines

These are editorial extensions of the paper, not claims the author makes directly.

  • High-precision expansion-rate measurements around redshift 2 to 3 could test whether the required sign switch is present.
  • The same structured change in dark energy could be checked against other late-time tensions such as the Hubble constant.
  • Extending the model to include galaxy clustering or weak lensing data would further limit the allowed transition redshift.

Load-bearing premise

A sign switch in dark energy density can be introduced without violating other cosmological constraints or requiring adjustments to early-universe physics.

What would settle it

A future dataset that keeps the effective neutrino mass sum negative even after the sign switch in dark energy is allowed, or a direct probe showing that dark energy density does not change sign near or above redshift 2.4.

Figures

Figures reproduced from arXiv: 2605.21456 by Cihad K{\i}br{\i}s, Eleonora Di Valentino, \"Ozg\"ur Akarsu, Willem Elbers.

Figure 1
Figure 1. Figure 1: FIG. 1. Relation between the transition redshift [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p008_1.png] view at source ↗
Figure 2
Figure 2. Figure 2: FIG. 2. Percentage change in the CMB lensing convergence power spectrum relative to [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p009_2.png] view at source ↗
Figure 3
Figure 3. Figure 3: FIG. 3. Best-fitting results from the combined DESI DR2 [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p010_3.png] view at source ↗
Figure 4
Figure 4. Figure 4: FIG. 4. Summary of the constraints on the effective neutrino [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p013_4.png] view at source ↗
Figure 5
Figure 5. Figure 5: FIG. 5. Posterior distributions of the effective neutrino-mass parameter, [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p015_5.png] view at source ↗
Figure 6
Figure 6. Figure 6: FIG. 6. Contour plots showing the [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p016_6.png] view at source ↗
Figure 8
Figure 8. Figure 8: FIG. 8. Posterior credible regions at [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p017_8.png] view at source ↗
Figure 7
Figure 7. Figure 7: FIG. 7. Fractional deviation in the expansion rate, [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p017_7.png] view at source ↗
read the original abstract

Recent cosmological analyses based on DESI and CMB data have revealed a tension between the inferred sum of neutrino masses and the minimum value allowed by neutrino oscillation experiments, when assuming an underlying $\Lambda$CDM model of cosmology. In this work, we perform a systematic exploration of alternative dark energy models, including models that can supply a negative dark energy density capable of reproducing the cosmological effects of negative effective neutrino masses. We argue that dark energy models can alleviate the tension by modifying the cosmic expansion rate over a specific redshift range relevant for CMB lensing, while matching BAO distance measurements from DESI at lower redshifts. Among the models considered, we find that a sign-switching cosmological constant model, $\Lambda_\mathrm{s}$CDM, is uniquely capable of recovering positive neutrino masses by modifying the expansion history in this way. For the combination of DESI DR2 BAO, CMB, and DES-Dovekie supernova data, the constraint on the effective neutrino mass shifts from $\sum m_{\nu,\mathrm{eff}}=-0.075^{+0.039}_{-0.053}$ eV (68%) for $\Lambda$CDM to $\sum m_{\nu,\mathrm{eff}}=0.055\pm0.050$ eV (68%) for $\Lambda_\mathrm{s}$CDM, with a 95% lower bound on the dark energy transition redshift, $z_\dagger>2.4$. Although $\Lambda_\mathrm{s}$CDM does not have the strongest overall statistical support among the models considered, when the $\sum m_{\nu,\mathrm{eff}}$ parameter is allowed to vary, our findings point toward a specific sign- and redshift-structured contribution to the late-time expansion history as a viable way to alleviate the neutrino mass tension.

Editorial analysis

A structured set of objections, weighed in public.

Desk editor's note, referee report, simulated authors' rebuttal, and a circularity audit. Tearing a paper down is the easy half of reading it; the pith above is the substance, this is the friction.

Referee Report

2 major / 2 minor

Summary. The manuscript claims that the negative sum of neutrino masses inferred from DESI DR2 BAO + CMB + DES-Dovekie supernova data under ΛCDM can be resolved by a sign-switching dark energy model (Λ_s CDM). This model modifies the expansion history only in the redshift window relevant to CMB lensing (with transition redshift z_† > 2.4 at 95% CL) while preserving BAO distances at z < 2.4, shifting the effective neutrino mass constraint from ∑ m_ν,eff = -0.075^{+0.039}_{-0.053} eV (68%) in ΛCDM to 0.055 ± 0.050 eV (68%) in Λ_s CDM. The paper presents this as part of a systematic exploration of alternative dark energy models, arguing that Λ_s CDM is uniquely effective at recovering positive neutrino masses.

Significance. If robust, the result would demonstrate that a targeted, sign-structured modification to the late-time expansion history can reconcile CMB lensing constraints with positive neutrino masses without requiring changes to early-universe parameters or BAO scales. The quantitative posterior shift and the lower bound on z_† provide a concrete, falsifiable example of how dark energy phenomenology can impact neutrino mass inferences from current datasets.

major comments (2)
  1. [Abstract and model implementation] The central claim that Λ_s CDM recovers positive ∑ m_ν,eff while exactly preserving the sound horizon θ_* and DESI BAO distances at z < 2.4 (Abstract) requires explicit demonstration that the sign switch at z_† > 2.4 does not alter the angular-diameter distance to recombination. If the model changes the integral for D_A(z_*) without additional marginalization over compensating shifts in ω_cdm or H_0 when using the full Planck TT/TE/EE + lensing likelihood, the reported shift in neutrino mass may be partly an artifact of an incomplete degeneracy structure rather than a genuine resolution.
  2. [Abstract] The abstract reports quantitative shifts in neutrino mass posteriors and a redshift bound but provides no details on fitting methodology, covariance handling between DESI BAO, CMB, and supernova datasets, or robustness checks against systematics. This absence limits verification that the central claim (recovery of positive neutrino mass) is supported by the data rather than by modeling assumptions.
minor comments (2)
  1. [Abstract] The abstract states that Λ_s CDM is 'uniquely capable' among the models considered but does not list the other models explored or the quantitative criteria (e.g., Bayesian evidence or posterior overlap) used to reach this conclusion.
  2. Clarify the precise functional form of the sign-switching in Λ_s CDM, including whether the negative-density phase introduces any additional degrees of freedom that could affect early-universe constraints.

Simulated Author's Rebuttal

2 responses · 0 unresolved

We thank the referee for their constructive and detailed comments on our manuscript. We address each major comment point by point below, providing clarifications based on the analysis presented and indicating where revisions will strengthen the presentation.

read point-by-point responses

  1. Referee: [Abstract and model implementation] The central claim that Λ_s CDM recovers positive ∑ m_ν,eff while exactly preserving the sound horizon θ_* and DESI BAO distances at z < 2.4 (Abstract) requires explicit demonstration that the sign switch at z_† > 2.4 does not alter the angular-diameter distance to recombination. If the model changes the integral for D_A(z_*) without additional marginalization over compensating shifts in ω_cdm or H_0 when using the full Planck TT/TE/EE + lensing likelihood, the reported shift in neutrino mass may be partly an artifact of an incomplete degeneracy structure rather than a genuine resolution.

    Authors: We thank the referee for this important observation. In the Λ_s CDM implementation, the sign switch is parameterized to occur at z_† > 2.4 (95% CL), modifying the expansion history primarily in the redshift window that influences CMB lensing while enforcing consistency with DESI BAO distances at z < 2.4 by construction. The sound horizon r_s at recombination is unaffected as early-universe physics is unchanged, and the MCMC chains already marginalize over H_0 and ω_cdm, which absorb any residual adjustments to D_A(z_*). Nevertheless, we agree that an explicit demonstration would remove any ambiguity. We will add a dedicated paragraph and supporting calculation in Section 2 of the revised manuscript showing the integrated D_A(z_*) under the posterior constraints on z_† and confirming consistency with the Planck θ_* measurement. revision: yes

  2. Referee: [Abstract] The abstract reports quantitative shifts in neutrino mass posteriors and a redshift bound but provides no details on fitting methodology, covariance handling between DESI BAO, CMB, and supernova datasets, or robustness checks against systematics. This absence limits verification that the central claim (recovery of positive neutrino mass) is supported by the data rather than by modeling assumptions.

    Authors: We acknowledge that the abstract's length constraints prevent inclusion of full methodological details. The manuscript itself (Section 3 and Appendix A) specifies the likelihoods employed: the full Planck TT/TE/EE + lensing likelihood, DESI DR2 BAO with its published covariance matrix, and the DES-Dovekie supernova sample. Dataset covariances are treated as independent where no cross-covariance is provided in the public releases, following standard practice. Robustness tests, including prior variations and data subset analyses, appear in Appendix B. To improve accessibility, we will revise the abstract to include a concise reference to the datasets and direct readers to the methods section for fitting and covariance details. revision: partial

Circularity Check

0 steps flagged

No significant circularity; central result is a direct data fit.

full rationale

The paper's core result is obtained by fitting the Λ_sCDM model parameters (including transition redshift z_†) and ∑m_ν,eff simultaneously to the combination of DESI DR2 BAO, Planck CMB, and DES-Dovekie supernova likelihoods. The shift from negative to positive effective neutrino mass is reported as an output of the MCMC chains rather than imposed by definition or by a self-citation that replaces an independent derivation. No equation is shown to reduce to its own input by construction, and the model is introduced as an ansatz whose viability is tested against external datasets rather than assumed to force the neutrino-mass sign change. The derivation therefore remains self-contained against the supplied observational constraints.

Axiom & Free-Parameter Ledger

1 free parameters · 1 axioms · 1 invented entities

The analysis rests on standard cosmological assumptions plus a new sign-switching mechanism whose transition redshift is constrained by data; no machine-checked proofs or external benchmarks beyond the cited surveys are invoked.

free parameters (1)
  • dark energy transition redshift z_†
    Redshift at which the cosmological constant changes sign; constrained to z_† > 2.4 at 95% from the data fit.
axioms (1)
  • domain assumption Background expansion history follows standard Friedmann equations with modified dark energy component
    Invoked when stating that the model modifies the expansion rate over the CMB lensing redshift range while matching BAO distances.
invented entities (1)
  • sign-switching cosmological constant Λ_s no independent evidence
    purpose: To supply negative dark energy density at high redshifts that reproduces effects of negative effective neutrino mass
    Postulated to alter late-time expansion history; no independent falsifiable prediction outside the fit is provided.

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Reference graph

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