Calypso is a parameter-conditioned stochastic surrogate model for circumbinary accretion flows using PCA and multivariate Gaussian modeling, released as open-source software with a closed-form likelihood for parameter inference from time series.
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Targeted PTA searches for CWs from 114 AGN in NANOGrav 15 yr data yield no detections, factor-of-two tighter limits than all-sky searches, and updated constraints ruling out part of the parameter space for a binary in 3C 66B.
Cavity truncation in circumbinary discs is set by binary parameters together with instantaneous cavity eccentricity and relative apsidal orientation, yielding a prescription for pericentre radius Rp and semi-major axis acav.
Self-consistent thermal regulation in circumbinary disks permits long-lived non-accretion phases that suppress binary feeding rates toward the Eddington limit while leaving optical/near-IR detectability intact.
Customized chromatic noise models for 67 pulsars detect non-dispersive delays in 21 cases, alter achromatic noise inferences in 19, and enable solar wind density estimates over 1.5 cycles.
A statistically significant positive correlation (r ~ 0.12-0.13) exists between the absolute velocity offset of broad Hβ lines and dust reddening in quasars, consistent with a population of recoiling black holes.
Customized chromatic noise models applied to NANOGrav 15 yr data raise the Bayes factor for Hellings-Downs GWB correlations by a factor of ~8, lower the amplitude to 2.1e-15, and increase the spectral index to 3.5.
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