A perturbation framework with Drop/Add/Flip and player-removal operations demonstrates that Bradley-Terry leaderboards are non-robust to sub-1% targeted changes that alter top ranks, Kendall tau, and confidence intervals.
Confidence diagram of nonparametric ranking for uncertainty assessment in large language models evaluation.arXiv preprint arXiv:2412.05506, 2024
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A hierarchical framework generates statistically valid task-level rank confidence intervals via pairwise comparisons and leaderboard-level rank prediction intervals via conformal prediction.
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