First joint population inference on binary black hole eccentricity from GWTC-4 bounds the eccentric branching ratio below 5% at 90% confidence, with results consistent with quasi-circular models but highly model-dependent.
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Li, Y .-Z
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abstract
The active galactic nucleus (AGN) accretion disks are ideal sites for hierarchical black hole (BH) mergers. To robustly probe such a possibility, we analyze binary black hole mergers in the GWTC-4 with a flexible mixture population model for component masses, spin magnitudes, and spin tilt angles, and identify two distinct subpopulations. In the second subpopulation characterized by high spin magnitudes $\chi\sim 0.8$ as well as the broad mass distribution up to $\gtrsim 150M_\odot$, we find a pronounced preference for spins aligned with the orbital angular momentum: an isotropic tilt distribution is strongly disfavored (logarithmic Bayes factor = 4.5). The aligned events account for $\sim 0.57^{+0.23}_{-0.31}$ of the second subpopulation, corresponding to a local rate of $\sim 0.25^{+0.38}_{-0.16} ~ {\rm Gpc}^{-3} {\rm yr}^{-1}$ (all values reflect central 90\% credible intervals). These notable features naturally arise from hierarchical mergers embedded in AGN disks, where gas torques may effectively align spins. Our results suggest that AGN-disk hierarchical assembly may be one important channel for the present gravitational-wave sample, and provide concrete, testable predictions for future detection.
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