Introduces regression on regression to fit physical parameters (τ_min, α, A, γ, δ) to GWTC-4 B-Spline merger rate posteriors, finding the progenitor formation rate evolves ~5.3 times steeper than the star formation rate at low z and exposing model misspecification.
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Deconvolution of the GWTC-4.0 BBH merger rate reveals that long-delay tails in the delay time distribution are forbidden, constraining progenitor formation histories to decline more steeply than the star formation rate and disfavoring shallow power-law DTDs such as stable mass transfer.
Dynamical dissolution of soft primordial binaries fully explains observed main-sequence binary fractions in globular clusters under solar-neighborhood initial conditions.
Stable mass transfer produces two distinct peaks in merging binary black hole primary mass and mass ratio distributions via mass ratio reversal under conservative mass transfer.
Reduces elliptic triple outcome model to one free parameter, matches N-body simulations except at low angular momentum, and finds observably eccentric merger fractions of 2.6-4.4% in 10^5-10^7 solar mass clusters.
Simulations across mass transfer rates from 10^-5 to 10^-1 solar masses per year find that radiatively cooled binaries develop equatorially concentrated L2 outflows and increasing cooling luminosity at high rates.
Simulations with a new tidal model in COMPAS predict that merging binary black holes from isolated evolution are strongly biased to low effective spins, with one third below 0.05 and only 3% above 0.5, but the high-spin fraction rises to 15% at higher redshifts.
citing papers explorer
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Regression on Regression: Mapping Data-Driven Binary Black Hole Merger Rate Fits to Progenitor Histories
Introduces regression on regression to fit physical parameters (τ_min, α, A, γ, δ) to GWTC-4 B-Spline merger rate posteriors, finding the progenitor formation rate evolves ~5.3 times steeper than the star formation rate at low z and exposing model misspecification.
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Forbidden Formation Histories: The Binary Black Hole Merger Rate Disfavors Long Delay Times
Deconvolution of the GWTC-4.0 BBH merger rate reveals that long-delay tails in the delay time distribution are forbidden, constraining progenitor formation histories to decline more steeply than the star formation rate and disfavoring shallow power-law DTDs such as stable mass transfer.
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Intermediate States in Chaotic Triple Evolution and Applications to Black Hole Merger Statistics
Reduces elliptic triple outcome model to one free parameter, matches N-body simulations except at low angular momentum, and finds observably eccentric merger fractions of 2.6-4.4% in 10^5-10^7 solar mass clusters.
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Modern tidal interaction models for rapid binary population synthesis: II. Binary black hole formation, mergers, and spins
Simulations with a new tidal model in COMPAS predict that merging binary black holes from isolated evolution are strongly biased to low effective spins, with one third below 0.05 and only 3% above 0.5, but the high-spin fraction rises to 15% at higher redshifts.