Maximum-likelihood-based posterior predictive checks detect model misspecification better than event-level versions for uncertain spin tilts, but current detector sensitivity limits their power; the Gaussian Component Spins model underpredicts high spin magnitudes and overpredicts anti-aligned tilts
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Semi-analytical models show AGN disks produce repeated BBH mergers with a high-mass tail beyond the pair-instability gap, more efficiently at low viscosity, with spin and mass-ratio signatures that can match events like GW190521.