Introduces epistemic calibration as a strictly stronger criterion than classical calibration for second-order models and proposes the Expected Epistemic Calibration Error (EECE) as a consistent estimator of the True Epistemic Calibration Error (TECE).
Reliability, sufficiency, and the decomposition of proper scores.Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 135(643):1512–1519, 2009
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Introduces Trajectory Proper Score (TPS) as a strictly proper family of trajectory-level scoring rules that elicits the complete prefix-conditioned success probability process.
CRAFT is a Pareto-front prompt optimizer that allocates scarce LLM validation calls to candidates near the current front using accuracy- and cost-oriented generators plus NSGA-II retention.
citing papers explorer
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Proper Scoring Rules for Agentic Uncertainty Quantification
Introduces Trajectory Proper Score (TPS) as a strictly proper family of trajectory-level scoring rules that elicits the complete prefix-conditioned success probability process.