Future microhertz detections combined with nanohertz pulsar terms can serve as gravity echoes to measure supermassive black hole binary inspiral rates from hundreds to thousands of years in the past.
Detecting eccentric supermassive black hole binaries with pulsar timing arrays: Resolvable source strategies
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abstract
The couplings between supermassive black-hole binaries and their environments within galactic nuclei have been well studied as part of the search for solutions to the final parsec problem. The scattering of stars by the binary or the interaction with a circumbinary disk may efficiently drive the system to sub-parsec separations, allowing the binary to enter a regime where the emission of gravitational waves can drive it to merger within a Hubble time. However, these interactions can also affect the orbital parameters of the binary. In particular, they may drive an increase in binary eccentricity which survives until the system's gravitational-wave signal enters the pulsar-timing array band. Therefore, if we can measure the eccentricity from observed signals, we can potentially deduce some of the properties of the binary environment. To this end, we build on previous techniques to present a general Bayesian pipeline with which we can detect and estimate the parameters of an eccentric supermassive black-hole binary system with pulsar-timing arrays. Additionally, we generalize the pulsar-timing array $\mathcal{F}_e$-statistic to eccentric systems, and show that both this statistic and the Bayesian pipeline are robust when studying circular or arbitrarily eccentric systems. We explore how eccentricity influences the detection prospects of single gravitational-wave sources, as well as the detection penalty incurred by employing a circular waveform template to search for eccentric signals, and conclude by identifying important avenues for future study.
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Pulsar timing arrays can probe supermassive black hole binaries that merged prior to observations via the pulsar term, with SKA potentially detecting a few such zombie binaries at SNR > 3.
PTA statistical tests lose sensitivity to non-Gaussian GW features after decorrelation and cannot distinguish them model-agnostically.
Simulations of continuous-wave searches show that PTA data first constrain GW frequency and strain amplitude together, then sky location, with chirp mass and inclination following later for evolving sources, with precision depending on source frequency and sky position.
Simulations of PTA data show that a full gravitational-wave signal template achieves the highest Bayes factors and most robust parameter estimation for individual supermassive black hole binaries compared to an Earth-term template and a novel Spike Pixel cross-correlation model.
citing papers explorer
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Gravity Echoes from Supermassive Black Hole Binaries
Future microhertz detections combined with nanohertz pulsar terms can serve as gravity echoes to measure supermassive black hole binary inspiral rates from hundreds to thousands of years in the past.
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Probing Supermassive Black Hole Mergers with Pulsar Timing Arrays
Pulsar timing arrays can probe supermassive black hole binaries that merged prior to observations via the pulsar term, with SKA potentially detecting a few such zombie binaries at SNR > 3.
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Are PTA measurements sensitive to gravitational wave non-Gaussianities?
PTA statistical tests lose sensitivity to non-Gaussian GW features after decorrelation and cannot distinguish them model-agnostically.
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Expectations for the first supermassive black-hole binary resolved by PTAs II: Milestones for binary characterization
Simulations of continuous-wave searches show that PTA data first constrain GW frequency and strain amplitude together, then sky location, with chirp mass and inclination following later for evolving sources, with precision depending on source frequency and sky position.
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Expectations for the first supermassive black-hole binary resolved by PTAs I: Model efficacy
Simulations of PTA data show that a full gravitational-wave signal template achieves the highest Bayes factors and most robust parameter estimation for individual supermassive black hole binaries compared to an Earth-term template and a novel Spike Pixel cross-correlation model.