Surface magnetic fields predict solar cycles when poloidal flux is efficiently transported back into the dynamo or when the surface field represents the radial component of the interior poloidal field.
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3D solar dynamo simulations require active region disconnection from the convection zone base to match calibrated 2D surface flux transport models, but increasing diffusivity to achieve this prevents the dynamo from sustaining itself over a full cycle.
Empirical scaling relations for solar active region area, pole separation, and tilt with flux and latitude are derived from ARISE data for cycles 23-25 and recommended for space climate modeling.
citing papers explorer
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The need for active region disconnection in 3D kinematic dynamo simulations
3D solar dynamo simulations require active region disconnection from the convection zone base to match calibrated 2D surface flux transport models, but increasing diffusivity to achieve this prevents the dynamo from sustaining itself over a full cycle.