Finite-key feasibility of geostationary quantum key distribution

Quantum key distribution (QKD) via geostationary Earth orbit (GEO) satellites offers a compelling route to continuous, continental-scale secure communications. However, operation in this regime entails extreme channel loss and significant background noise, particularly if daylight operation is desired. We present a comprehensive end-to-end feasibility study of a decoy-state BB84 protocol in a GEO downlink configuration, incorporating variable-length finite-key security and tight statistical bounds to expand the achievable positive-key regime. Our analysis encompasses the principal receiver architectures relevant to downlink QKD and employs a physically realistic channel model that captures the dominant loss and noise mechanisms. We evaluate performance across rural, urban, and coastal environments at multiple wavelengths, including visible Fraunhofer absorption minima and the telecom band. Using historical cloud data across Europe, we forecast the annual secret-key yield across the continent. Through a systematic exploration of the high-dimensional parameter space, we identify key trade-offs and performance bottlenecks that determine feasibility. These results establish practical operating thresholds and provide actionable design guidelines for future GEO-QKD missions.