A meta-analysis of 1490 BBH merger rate predictions from 57 studies shows substantial subsets reproduce or underestimate the observed rate, indicating that apparent crises are model-dependent rather than universal.
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Introduces regression on regression to fit physical parameters (τ_min, α, A, γ, δ) to GWTC-4 B-Spline merger rate posteriors, finding the progenitor formation rate evolves ~5.3 times steeper than the star formation rate at low z and exposing model misspecification.
Deconvolution of the GWTC-4.0 BBH merger rate reveals that long-delay tails in the delay time distribution are forbidden, constraining progenitor formation histories to decline more steeply than the star formation rate and disfavoring shallow power-law DTDs such as stable mass transfer.
Introduces a target redshift z_t to isolate metal-poor black hole progenitors and a statistical framework to test merger-rate variations against forecasts from Einstein Telescope and Cosmic Explorer.
citing papers explorer
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Lower Your Rates: On Claims of a Binary Black Hole Merger-Rate Crisis
A meta-analysis of 1490 BBH merger rate predictions from 57 studies shows substantial subsets reproduce or underestimate the observed rate, indicating that apparent crises are model-dependent rather than universal.
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Regression on Regression: Mapping Data-Driven Binary Black Hole Merger Rate Fits to Progenitor Histories
Introduces regression on regression to fit physical parameters (τ_min, α, A, γ, δ) to GWTC-4 B-Spline merger rate posteriors, finding the progenitor formation rate evolves ~5.3 times steeper than the star formation rate at low z and exposing model misspecification.
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Forbidden Formation Histories: The Binary Black Hole Merger Rate Disfavors Long Delay Times
Deconvolution of the GWTC-4.0 BBH merger rate reveals that long-delay tails in the delay time distribution are forbidden, constraining progenitor formation histories to decline more steeply than the star formation rate and disfavoring shallow power-law DTDs such as stable mass transfer.
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Targeting black holes from metal-poor progenitors with next-generation gravitational-wave detectors
Introduces a target redshift z_t to isolate metal-poor black hole progenitors and a statistical framework to test merger-rate variations against forecasts from Einstein Telescope and Cosmic Explorer.