Exact solution of time-reversed stochastic inflation in the quantum well yields curvature perturbation distributions with faster-decaying exponential tails than forward stochastic inflation.
Cosmic Inflation at the Crossroads
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abstract
The capability of Cosmic Inflation to explain the latest Cosmic Microwave Background and Baryonic Acoustic Oscillation data is assessed by performing Bayesian model comparison within the landscape of nearly three-hundred models of single-field slow-roll inflation. We present the first Bayesian data analysis based on the third-order slow-roll primordial power spectra. In particular, the fourth Hubble-flow function $\epsilon_4$ remains unbounded while the third function verifies, at two-sigma, $\epsilon_{3}\in[-0.4,0.5]$, which is perfectly compatible with the slow-roll predictions for the running of the spectral index. We also observe some residual excess of $B$-modes within the BICEP/Keck data favoring, at a non-statistically significant level, non-vanishing primordial tensor modes: $\log(\epsilon_{1}) > -3.9$, at $68\%$ confidence level. Then, for 283 models of single-field inflation, we compute the Bayesian evidence, the Bayesian dimensionality and the marginalized posteriors of all the models' parameters, including the ones associated with the reheating era. The average information gain on the reheating parameter $R_\mathrm{reh}$ reaches $1.3 \pm 0.18$ bits, which is more than a factor two improvement compared to the first Planck data release. As such, inflationary model predictions cannot meet data accuracy without specifying, or marginalizing over, the reheating kinematics. We also find that more than $40\%$ of the scenarios are now strongly disfavored, which shows that the constraining power of cosmological data is winning against the increase of the number of proposed models. In addition, about $20\%$ of all models have evidences within the most probable region and are all favored according to the Jeffreys' scale of Bayesian evidences.
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2026 4representative citing papers
Starobinsky supergravity coupled to the MSSM links the CMB inflationary scale to the Higgs boson mass (~125 GeV) and predicts thermal wino dark matter at ~3 TeV, testable at future colliders and direct detection experiments.
Negative field-space curvature enhances post-inflationary Ricci scalar oscillations and boosts CGPP dark matter number density by up to an order of magnitude relative to flat field-space cases, with nontrivial relic abundance dependence on spectator mass and reheating temperature.
Expanded Simons Observatory could measure reheating temperature and inflaton-gluon coupling to a few percent in QCD-driven warm inflation if r=0.01 primordial gravitational waves are found.
citing papers explorer
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Time-reversed stochastic inflation in the quantum well
Exact solution of time-reversed stochastic inflation in the quantum well yields curvature perturbation distributions with faster-decaying exponential tails than forward stochastic inflation.
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Higgs boson mass and thermal wino dark matter from Starobinsky supergravity with the MSSM
Starobinsky supergravity coupled to the MSSM links the CMB inflationary scale to the Higgs boson mass (~125 GeV) and predicts thermal wino dark matter at ~3 TeV, testable at future colliders and direct detection experiments.
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Cosmological gravitational particle production in multifield inflation
Negative field-space curvature enhances post-inflationary Ricci scalar oscillations and boosts CGPP dark matter number density by up to an order of magnitude relative to flat field-space cases, with nontrivial relic abundance dependence on spectator mass and reheating temperature.
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Observing Cosmic Reheating with the expanded Simons Observatory
Expanded Simons Observatory could measure reheating temperature and inflaton-gluon coupling to a few percent in QCD-driven warm inflation if r=0.01 primordial gravitational waves are found.