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A water-rich interior in the temperate sub-Neptune K2-18 b revealed by JWST

T0 review · 2 major / 5 minor · reviewed 2026-08-06 · deepseek-v4-flash

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Pith's one-line read Repeated JWST spectra of K2-18 b show a water-rich interior, whether through a 10–25% water envelope or a thin atmosphere over a liquid ocean.

desk verdict Strong new transit data and a robust CO2 detection, but the 'conclusively water-rich' conclusion rests on a model mapping the paper's own models do not fully validate. read the letter →

arxiv 2507.12622 v1 pith:KVPS467I submitted 2025-07-16 astro-ph.EP physics.ao-ph

Renyu Hu , Aaron Bello-Arufe , Armen Tokadjian , Jeehyun Yang , Mario Damiano , Pierre-Alexis Roy , Louis-Philippe Coulombe , Nikku Madhusudhan
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Savvas Constantinou Björn Benneke
This is my paper · ORCID
classification astro-ph.EPphysics.ao-ph
keywords exoplanetatmospherestransmissionspectroscopysub-NeptunesK2-18bwater-richinteriormethanecarbondioxidebiosignatures
verification ladder T0 review T1 audit T2 compute T3 formal

The pith

A machine-rendered reading of the paper's core claim, the machinery that carries it, and where it could break.

The reading

This paper reports four new JWST transit observations of the temperate sub-Neptune K2-18 b and combines them with earlier data into a high-precision transmission spectrum. The authors claim the spectrum robustly detects methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2) while showing no clear water vapor, ammonia, or carbon monoxide. From the measured CO2-to-CH4 ratio they infer that the planet's interior is water-rich: either a massive hydrogen envelope with 10–25% water by volume, or a thin hydrogen atmosphere above a liquid-water ocean. The marginal signals of dimethyl sulfide, methyl mercaptan, and nitrous oxide are all below 3σ, and the paper's photochemical models show the first two can form abiotically in massive high-metallicity envelopes.

What carries the argument

The argument turns on using the observed CO2-to-CH4 ratio as a proxy for the bulk H2O-to-H2 ratio in a massive hydrogen envelope. In water-rich envelopes, higher water content shifts carbon chemistry toward CO2 relative to CH4; the paper compares the retrieved abundance ratio to a precomputed grid of self-consistent pressure–temperature and chemistry models to read off an interior H2O fraction of 10–25% by volume. The alternative branch of the argument uses the absence of NH3 and CO together with the high CO2-to-CO ratio, as predicted for a thin H2 atmosphere resting on a liquid-water layer, to support the ocean scenario.

What would settle it

Measure the CO2-to-CO ratio with deeper NIRSpec/G395H transits: a confirmed CO2/CO below 1 would rule out the thin-atmosphere-over-ocean scenario, while CO2/CO above 3 would rule out standard massive-envelope models. Laboratory or quantum-chemical rate coefficients for the reaction CH3S + CO → CH3 + OCS would directly test the mapping used to infer the planet's water content.

Watch

Extended reading notes

Core claim

The central claim is that K2-18 b has a water-dominated interior. The evidence is the simultaneous presence of CH4 and CO2 at abundances that, according to the paper's self-consistent atmospheric models, can only be produced by either a massive H2 envelope with roughly 100 times solar metallicity and a bulk H2O content of 10–25% by volume, or a small H2 atmosphere over a liquid-water ocean. The spectrum contains no detectable H2O, NH3, or CO; the H2O absence is interpreted as a cold trap with a high Bond albedo, and the NH3 and CO nondetections favor the thin-atmosphere-over-ocean scenario, though massive-envelope alternatives with interior nitrogen sequestration are not ruled out. The paper concludes that whether or not the ocean exists, the planet's bulk volatile inventory is water-rich.

Load-bearing premise

The inference of 10–25% interior water depends on the theoretical mapping from the observed CO2-to-CH4 ratio to the H2O-to-H2 ratio in massive hydrogen envelopes; if that mapping is biased by poorly constrained sulfur chemistry such as OCS formation, a massive envelope with much less water could still reproduce the spectrum.

Editorial extensions

If this is right

  • If the water-rich interior claim holds, K2-18 b joins a class of temperate sub-Neptunes whose volatile inventory is dominated by water rather than H2/He, informing formation models that accrete icy solids.
  • The nondetection of water vapor implies an efficient cold trap and a Bond albedo of at least 0.3 at 2σ, with values near 0.5–0.7, close to what climate models need to avoid runaway greenhouse and sustain an ocean.
  • Dimethyl sulfide and methyl mercaptan should not be treated as standalone biosignatures on massive high-metallicity sub-Neptunes, because the paper's models produce them abiotically; co-production of C2H6 or C2H2 could instead indicate biogenic surface fluxes.
  • The CO2-to-CO ratio emerges as a practical diagnostic for future observations: values above roughly 3 favor a thin atmosphere over an ocean, while values below roughly 1 favor a massive H2 envelope.

Reading between the lines

Editorial extensions of the paper, not claims the author makes directly.

  • If the interior is water-rich, similar temperate sub-Neptunes such as TOI-270 d become high-priority targets for the same repeated-transit strategy, since their CO2-to-CH4 ratios could be measured the same way.
  • The paper's demonstration that repeated visits weaken tentative DMS signals suggests that single-epoch biosignature claims on sub-Neptunes should be treated with caution until reproducibility is established.
  • A testable corollary is that ground-based high-resolution spectroscopy targeting CO and OCS could break the degeneracy between the massive-envelope and ocean scenarios without waiting for more JWST transits.
  • The cold-trap interpretation implies that transmission spectra of cool sub-Neptunes systematically under-report bulk H2O, so interior water content must be inferred from carbon chemistry—a lesson that transfers to other planets in this class.
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Editorial analysis

A structured set of objections, weighed in public.

Desk editor's note, referee report, and a circularity audit.

Referee Report

2 major / 5 minor

Summary. The paper presents four new JWST/NIRSpec transit observations (two G235H, two G395H) of the temperate sub-Neptune K2-18 b and combines them with re-reduced NIRISS/SOSS and G395H data from earlier programs. Two independent NIRSpec reductions (Eureka! and ExoTEDRF) and one NIRISS reduction (NAMELESS) are shown to agree. Three retrieval frameworks (ExoTR, AURA, SCARLET) consistently detect CH4 at log(VMR) ≈ -1.0 to -1.1 and CO2 at approximately 10^-3.5 to 10^-2.5, with 2σ upper limits on H2O, NH3, CO, and HCN. The paper then uses self-consistent EPACRIS photochemical-climate models to argue that the observed CO2-to-CH4 ratio implies a massive high-metallicity envelope with 10–25% H2O by volume, or alternatively a thin H2 atmosphere above a liquid-water ocean, and concludes that K2-18 b has a water-rich interior. It also reports marginal, sub-3σ evidence for DMS, CH3SH, and N2O, and presents abiotic photochemical pathways for DMS and CH3SH in massive high-metallicity envelopes, updating the 2021 characterization roadmap for temperate sub-Neptunes.

Significance. If the central claim is accepted, this is an important step in sub-Neptune characterization: it would be the first robust demonstration that a temperate sub-Neptune's bulk volatile inventory is water-dominated, with direct implications for interior structure and habitability. The observational core is genuinely strong: the paper ships multiple independent reduction pipelines, three independent retrieval frameworks with consistent CH4 and CO2 constraints, quantitative Bayes-factor detection tests, public data products, and transparent constrained-retrieval experiments that probe alternative compositions. The repeated-visit analysis is also a valuable methodological contribution, showing that tentative DMS/CH3SH/N2O signals weaken as more data are added. However, the headline water-rich conclusion is not a direct measurement: it depends on the Yang & Hu (2024a) model grid, whose reliability for the specific CO2/CH4 diagnostic is undercut by the same models' large overpredictions of CO, NH3, HCN, and CH3SH, and on a small-atmosphere branch that is inferred from theory rather than directly observed.

major comments (2)
  1. [Section 4; Sections 3.2.1 and 5.3] The central quantitative inference of a bulk H2O/H2 ratio of 10–25% by volume is obtained by comparing the retrieved CO2-to-CH4 ratio with the Yang & Hu (2024a) grid for a 100×solar C/H envelope. The same EPACRIS model family, however, overproduces CO relative to the retrieved upper limit, overproduces NH3 by at least two orders of magnitude, and produces CH3SH above the data-allowed level; Section 5.2.2 calls the CO overproduction "unexplained," and Section 5.3 states that "the interplay between sulfur and carbon chemistry in H2-dominated atmospheres remains poorly understood, with many reaction rates still unconstrained." Because the model CO2/CH4 ratio could respond to exactly these unconstrained OCS/sulfur pathways, the mapping from observed CO2/CH4 to a water-rich bulk composition is not yet robust, and a dry, high-metallicity H2-dominated envelope is not excluded. This is a load-bearing correctness risk in the central claim; the paper should either provide a quantitative propagation of the model-chemistry uncertainty into the inferred H2O/H2 range or explicitly reframe the 10–25% inference as conditional on the EPACRIS/Yang & Hu chemistry being accurate.
  2. [Abstract and Section 7; Sections 5.1, 5.2.1, 5.2.2] The statement that the results "conclusively demonstrate that K2-18 b has a water-rich interior" is stronger than the evidence supports. The massive-envelope branch depends on the model grid criticized above. The small-atmosphere branch assumes, rather than demonstrates, that a thin H2 atmosphere must overlie a liquid-water ocean (Section 5.2, citing Gupta et al. 2025), and the small-atmosphere model in Section 3.2.2 adopts the retrieved CH4 and CO2 abundances as lower-boundary conditions, so it is a consistency test rather than an independent prediction. In addition, the nondetections of H2O, NH3, and CO are not decisive: Sections 5.1, 5.2.1, and 5.2.2 show that constrained retrievals with elevated H2O, NH3, or CO produce visually acceptable fits with likelihood odds of only about 7:1, 3:1, and 2:1 against them, respectively. The conclusion should be softened to state that the data are consistent with a water-rich interior under the adopted photochemical/structural models, or the paper should provide a genuinely independent test of the water-rich hypothesis.
minor comments (5)
  1. [Section 3.1.2] The text contains the stray phrase "as shown hello thank youFigures 6 and A5," which appears to be an editing artifact and should be removed.
  2. [Section 3.1.2] The list of six primary molecules reads "H2O, CH4, CO2, NH3, CO2, HCN," with CO2 repeated; presumably CO was intended in one of the two positions.
  3. [Tables 5 and 7] The quoted 10–25% H2O range in Section 4 is based on the ExoTR abundances, but AURA returns a CO2 abundance higher by about 0.8 dex (log CO2 = -3.35^{+0.66}_{-0.80} versus -2.52^{+0.48}_{-0.57}); the text should state explicitly that the compositional range is conditional on the ExoTR retrieval and the Yang & Hu (2024a) grid, or provide a range that spans both retrieval frameworks.
  4. [Figure A2 caption] The caption spells "Madhusudan et al. (2023)" with a missing 'h'; the spelling should be corrected to "Madhusudhan" for consistency with the reference list.
  5. [Section 5.1, Eq. (3)] The skin-temperature formula is rendered ambiguously as "T skin = 1 21/4" before the bracket; please typeset the (1/2)^{1/4} factor clearly.

Circularity Check

0 steps flagged · score 0.0 of 10

No significant circularity: the CH4 and CO2 detections and the water-rich interpretation are model-dependent but not equivalent to their inputs by construction.

full rationale

The central observational claims (robust CH4 and CO2 detections, abundance constraints, and upper limits on H2O/NH3/CO/HCN) come from three independent retrieval frameworks (ExoTR, AURA, SCARLET) applied to the same JWST data, with cross-checks against alternative reductions are not fitted outputs of the theoretical grid that is later used for interpretation. The H2O/H2 inference in Section 4 compares the retrieved CO2/CH4 ratio to the forward grid of Yang & Hu (2024a); that grid is a parameter-free pre-existing model family whose stated assumptions do not include the target result, and it is externally falsifiable. Indeed, the paper candidly reports that the same EPACRIS models overproduce CO, NH3, HCN, and CH3SH relative to the retrievals, which is a genuine test rather than a circular confirmation. The small-atmosphere and cold-trap models do set CH4 and CO2 boundary conditions to retrieved values, but the quantities that carry the argument there (low H2O, low NH3, low CO, organosulfur yields) are computed outputs, not the assumed boundary conditions. The constrained retrievals that force high H2O, NH3, or CO explicitly demonstrate that alternative fits exist, so the paper is not merely reading its preferred scenario back out of its assumptions. The remaining concerns are about model completeness and the strength of the 'only' language, which are correctness and overclaim risks, not circular reductions.

Assumptions & free parameters 5 free parameters · 6 assumptions · 0 invented entities

The central claim depends on standard retrieval assumptions, a model mapping from CO2/CH4 to H2O/H2 from prior same-group work, and a structural assumption that a small atmosphere implies a liquid-water ocean. The fitted parameters are mainly molecular abundances, cloud pressure, and instrument/detector offsets. No new physical entities are invented.

free parameters (5)
  • CH4 volume mixing ratio = log10 VMR -1.06 (+0.24/-0.37), ExoTR shifted average
    Fitted to the combined JWST spectrum; the central C/H and CO2/CH4 diagnostics depend on it.
  • CO2 volume mixing ratio = log10 VMR -3.35 (+0.66/-0.80) ExoTR; -2.52 (+0.48/-0.57) AURA
    Fitted to the spectrum; the water-rich inference hinges on the CO2-to-CH4 ratio.
  • Detector and instrument offsets = Visit-dependent, ppm-level; manual -50 and +60 ppm applied to NRS2 in shifted average
    Free parameters in retrievals; ad hoc shifts affect the continuum and hence abundance posteriors.
  • Cloud top pressure = log P(top) > about -1.5 (2 sigma, i.e. >0.03 bar)
    Fitted; cloud height changes how much gas absorption is visible and interacts with H2O/NH3 alternative solutions.
  • Stellar heterogeneity parameters = Fractions and temperatures with broad priors
    Fitted in ExoTR and SCARLET; degenerate with haze and affect the spectral slope.
assumptions (6)
  • domain assumption Atmospheric background is 80% H2 and 20% He.
    Stated in Section 3.1.1; all retrievals assume this background. If the background were different, abundance constraints would shift.
  • domain assumption Isothermal pressure-temperature profile in the photosphere.
    Used in ExoTR and SCARLET; AURA tests non-isothermal profiles and finds no preference, so this is reasonable but still an assumption.
  • domain assumption Molecular opacity databases (HITRAN, HITEMP, ExoMol) are accurate at the relevant temperatures, including DMS and CH3SH at 298 K.
    Retrieval results depend on these line lists; CO2 cross-section differences alone shift retrieved CO2 by about 0.5 dex between frameworks.
  • domain assumption The CO2-to-CH4 ratio in a massive H2 envelope maps to the bulk H2O-to-H2 ratio according to Yang & Hu (2024a).
    This is the core model relation used to assign 10-25% H2O; it is not independently tested against observations in this paper.
  • domain assumption A thin H2 atmosphere over a water-rich planet must be separated from the interior by a liquid layer.
    Invoked in Section 1 and Section 5.2 via Gupta et al. (2025); if a thin atmosphere could sit on a solid or mixed interior, the ocean inference would weaken.
  • domain assumption Cold-trap relation and skin-temperature estimate for Bond albedo from the H2O upper limit.
    Equations (1)-(3) in Section 5.1 assume saturation vapor pressure at the cold trap and an isothermal stratosphere; the authors themselves note alternative H2O-bearing solutions exist.

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Cite this review

Pith. "Pith review of A water-rich interior in the temperate sub-Neptune K2-18 b revealed by JWST." pith.science (2026). https://pith.science/paper/KVPS467I

@misc{pith2026250712622,
  author       = {Pith},
  title        = {Pith review of: A water-rich interior in the temperate sub-Neptune K2-18 b revealed by JWST},
  year         = {2026},
  howpublished = {\url{https://pith.science/paper/KVPS467I}},
  note         = {Machine review of arXiv:2507.12622}
}
read the original abstract

Temperate sub-Neptunes are compelling targets for detecting liquid-water oceans beyond the Solar System. If water-rich and lacking massive hydrogen-helium envelopes, these planets could sustain liquid layers beneath their atmospheres despite sizes larger than Earth. Previous observations of the temperate sub-Neptune K2-18 b revealed an H2-dominated atmosphere rich in CH4, with moderate evidence for CO2 and tentative signs of dimethyl sulfide (DMS). Here we present four new JWST/NIRSpec transit observations of K2-18 b. The resulting high-precision transmission spectrum robustly detects both CH4 and CO2, precisely measuring their abundances and firmly establishing the planet's water-rich nature: either a thick envelope with >10% H2O by volume or a thin atmosphere above a liquid-water ocean. The spectrum reveals no detectable H2O, NH3, or CO. The absence of atmospheric water vapor suggests an efficient cold trap, while the nondetections of NH3 and CO support the scenario of a small H2-rich atmosphere overlying a liquid reservoir. However, alternative models that include these gases can also reproduce the spectrum within uncertainties, highlighting the need for deeper observations. The spectrum only contains marginal signals of DMS, methyl mercaptan (CH3SH), and nitrous oxide (N2O), with none exceeding 3 sigma in model preference and all falling below ~2 sigma without imposing a strong super-Rayleigh haze. Meanwhile, our self-consistent photochemical models show that DMS and CH3SH may form abiotically in massive H2-rich atmospheres of high metallicity, making it important to consider additional indicators for their potential use as biosignatures. K2-18 b, a cool, water-rich world, stands out as one of the most promising temperate sub-Neptunes for exploring the emergence of liquid-water environments in non-Earth-like planets, motivating further characterization of its atmosphere and interior.

Figures

Figures reproduced from arXiv: 2507.12622 by the authors.

Figure 1
Figure 1. Left: Spectroscopic light curves of the five NIRSpec visits of K2-18 b as extracted with Eureka! at a resolution of ∆λ = 0.02 µm. The observations from JWST GO Program 2722 (Madhusudhan et al. 2023) have a shorter out-of-transit baseline. The horizontal gray stripe in each transit corresponds to the gap between the NRS1 and NRS2 detectors. There is a jump in flux visible near the end of Visit B1, which we mask in ou… view at source ↗
Figure 2
Figure 2. Top: JWST transmission spectra of K2-18 b. We show our reduction of the currently available NIRSpec and NIRISS data of K2-18 b. In this plot, the NIRISS data was binned down to the same resolution as the NIRSpec data (∆λ = 0.02 µm). Bottom left: Normalized RMS versus bin size for all NIRSpec spectroscopic light curves (the color scheme follows that of the top plot). The black lines indicate the expected RMS for whit… view at source ↗
Figure 3
Figure 3. Transmission spectrum of K2-18 b compared with models. Five transit measurements using NIRSpec are averaged with offsets taken out between visits (see Appendix C), and the data are binned to ∆λ = 0.1 µm and 0.04 µm for NIRISS and NIRSpec measurements for clarity. The fit shown in blue is the model that maximizes the posterior probability (MAP) in the baseline+DMS retrieval using ExoTR and its 1σ and 2σ boundaries (S… view at source ↗
Figures from the paper (8 more)
Figure 4
Figure 4. Figure 4: Posterior distributions from ExoTR atmospheric retrievals of K2-18 b’s transmission spectra using six visits: two with NIRSpec/G235H, three with NIRSpec/G395H, and one with NIRISS/SOSS. The baseline cases refer to the retrieval setup with the molecules listed in [PITH…
Figure 5
Figure 5. Figure 5: Posterior distributions from atmospheric retrievals of K2-18 b’s transmission spectra with the AURA retrieval frame￾work. The baseline case refers to the retrieval setup with the six primary molecules listed in [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p012_5.png]
Figure 6
Figure 6. Figure 6: Molecular abundance constraints obtained from the baseline retrieval analyses using ExoTR, AURA, and SCARLET frameworks. The two-sided error bars show the me￾dian and 1σ uncertainties on the CH4 and CO2 abundances, while the arrows show the 2σ (95% probability) upper l…
Figure 7
Figure 7. Figure 7: Self-consistent atmospheric chemistry models for K2-18 b assuming a massive gas envelope. Panel (a) corresponds to a standard 100× solar metallicity envelope, while panel (b) adopts an elevated H2O-to-H2 ratio of 25:75. The gray-shaded region marks the pressure range p…
Figure 8
Figure 8. Figure 8 [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p018_8.png]
Figure 9
Figure 9. Figure 9: Mixing ratios of H2O above the cold trap, com￾pared with the upper limits on atmospheric water vapor de￾rived from transmission spectra. The H2O mixing ratios are calculated from non-gray, radiative-convective simulations of K2-18 b’s atmosphere, assuming the most prob…
Figure 10
Figure 10. Figure 10: Major formation pathways of organosul￾fur species in the massive atmospheres of temperate sub￾Neptunes like K2-18 b. However, our self-consistent models demonstrate that the production of these compounds may occur readily in the atmosphere of a massive, high-metallici…
Figure 11
Figure 11. Figure 11: Illustration of the range of possible internal compositions for temperate sub-Neptunes like K2-18 b, and a roadmap to characterize them through atmospheric observations. A liquid-water ocean separating the atmosphere from the interior necessarily implies a small atmos…

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Forward citations

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